1. ENHANCING SAFETY PERFORMANCE THROUGH RISK PERCEPTION AND
RISK TOLERANCE
Joseph M. Deeb, Ph.D., CPE, M.Erg.S.
ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc
Singapore
June 23, 2006
Publication Number:

2. Objectives Business Impact Background Introduction and Facts
Methodology
Factors Influencing Risk Perception
Applications of Risk Perception techniques

3. Risk Perception Business Impact
Supports any business vision of “Zero Injury, Nobody Gets Hurt”
Break through safety performance plateau:
Augment safety programs with risk perception learnings
Provide tools to better perceive and avoid risk
Reduce/Eliminate incidents

4. Background SAFETY PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT
View Graph /M2- 5
FACILITIES
OIMS
Safety Systems - OIMS
HUMAN FACTORS
ACCIDENT RATE
TIME
SAFETY PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT
Human Factors is the focal point
48%
20%
14%
12% 6%
Equipment Failure
Unsafe Practices; Procedures
Not Followed
Lack of Hazard
Recognition & Risk Mitigation
Lack of Leadership and
Communication
Environmental Conditions
68% of incidents are due to lack of hazard recognition and, risk perception and mitigation

5. Introduction & Some Definitions
What is Perception?
Process to add meaning to received information
Depends on knowledge and experience
What is Risk Perception?
Process of determining likelihood and severity of injury
Determined by availability of risk in memory
Behavior is determined by perceived rather than actual risk
Risk Tolerance – Is the subjective level of acceptable risk
Hazard – Is a condition or set of circumstances that has the potential of causing harm or contributing to injury, illness, or property damage

6. Demonstration

7. Demonstration

8. Few Facts About Perception of Risk
Subjective assessment of risk is as important as quantification of
risk.
Hazards not perceived or recognized will not be acted on.
In general, people’s perception of risk is lower than actual risk.
Disagreement about risk should not be expected to evaporate
with the presence of evidence.
Strong initial views are resistant to change because they
influence the way that subsequent information is interpreted.
New evidence appears reliable if it is consistent with one’s initial
beliefs.

9. Methodology Reviewed wide range of literature
Technological Threats e.g. Nuclear power
Health Threats e.g., AIDS
Lifestyle Risks e.g., Smoking, alcohol consumption
Proposed a Cognitive Incident Stages Model (CISM)
Identified 8 main factors that can influence perception of risk
Integrated factors into selected safety programs
Incorporate the findings into sites’ own safety programs
Enhance employee perception of risk
Reduce/eliminate incidents

10. Cognitive Incident Sequence Model (CISM)
Goals of Risk Perception Process
Allow individuals to:
close the gap between actual and perceived risk
properly determine the likelihood and severity of injury to one’s self and others (Consequence).
Human information processing is critical to help and motivate employees to take actions and make interventions that will encourage safer behavior (Consequence becomes Antecedent).

11. Cognitive Incident Sequence Model (CISM) & Culture
Source
Channel
Noticeability
Attention
Memory
Comprehension
Attitudes
Beliefs
Motivation
Behavior
Receiver
Culture is a
cognitive framework
that influences
how we process
information
Culture is a
collection of values,
beliefs, traditions,
and behavior patterns
Wogalter, DeJoy, & Laughery, 1999

12. Factors Influencing Risk Perception
Risk Acceptance
Influenced by:
- Overestimate/Underestimate
- Cost of Compliance
- Voluntary Exposure
- Social Influence
Metal Ladder
Wet Clothing
Contacting Ladder
Bare Wet Feet
Electrical Cord
In Water
Bare Arms
Goggles
- Familiarity
Risk Perception Factors
1. Underestimating/Overestimating capabilities
2. Familiarity - Complacency
3. Severity of Consequences - Injury
4. Cost of Compliance - Time & Effort
5. Voluntary Exposure - Risk Taking
6. Controllable & Understood Hazards
7. Social Influence - Peer Pressure/Role Models
8. Personal Experiences

13. Factors Influencing Risk Perception

14. Factors Influencing Risk Perception Cont’

15. Risk Perception and the ABC Model
Antecedents
(Any trigger that leads people to act in a specific way)
Availability
Peer pressure
Rushing
Training/Demos
Mild consequence
Policies/Procedures
Supervisor feedback
Always did it like this
Incentive/Disincentive
Behavior
(What we do, How we act, Observable action)
Not wearing eye protection when required
Consequences
(What Occurs as a result of the action)
Injury
Penalty
Peer approval
Comfort
Convenience
Save time
Feedback
Cognitive Behavior Change
Reality Behavior Change

16. Altering Risk Perception
Underestimate/Overestimate
Awareness to employees about underestimation and overestimation of situation and, how they lead to lower/higher risk perception.
Training/communication/methodologies/tools about how best to avoid underestimation/overestimation of situation.
Familiarity
Strong warnings and emphasis on clear, explicit hazards. Train employees on how familiarity breeds lower risk perception.
Severity of Consequences
Provide and emphasize clear, explicit hazards and consequences information in both presentations and warning signs/situations.
Cost of Compliance
Minimize the cost of noncompliance by designing a safer system.
Provide and emphasize clear, explicit hazards and consequences information in both presentations and warning signs/situations.
Voluntary Exposure
Training employees to understand and appreciate the difference between power of choice (lower risk perception) and no choice (higher risk perception). Lower risk perception can create an environment of unawareness of actual dangers and deficiencies.
Controllable and Understood Hazards
Part of the training programs, we need to discuss the complexity of people and their integral contribution to most workplace hazards and injuries. This will increase:
1) the perceived value of ongoing safety interventions and,
2) the beliefs that a safe place (on and off the job) requires total commitment and involvement of all employees.
Social Influence
As part of the safety presentations and awareness training, employees need to understand what social influence and transition figure mean, how they work and, how they can be applied. The training should focus on the premise that: if employees see others complying with safety rules, they are more likely to comply themselves. Similarly, seeing others not complying lessens the likelihood of complying.
Personal Experiences
Train and encourage employees to use the power of personal stories and individual accounts in addition to convincing statistics. For example, focus of safety meetings/presentations should emphasize the human element of safety.

17. Summary of Specific Application of Guidance Document
Safety communication
Posters, papers, and presentations
Considerations for sender, transmitter, & receiver
Motivation
Message
Warnings
Criteria for warning communication
Design criteria (e.g., attention, hazard information,
consequence, comprehension, brevity, etc)
Training
Facts
How to discuss risk
Principles for successful training
Content
Training program template

18. Another Example Influenced by: - Underestimate/ Overestimate
- Familiarity
- Cost of
Compliance
- Voluntary
Exposure
- Controllable &
Understood
Hazards
1st Worker
2nd Worker
How did they get to here?

19. Another Example

20. Things are not always what they seem
Demonstration
Things are not always what they seem

21. Demonstration