1. NOAA Climate Program Chester J. Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office The 29 th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop University of Wisconsin, Madison October 20, 2004

2. Outline NOAA Climate Program Program Climate Program Office Climate Dynamics & Experimental Prediction Program Climate Prediction Program for the Americas Climate Variability and Prediction Program

3. NOAA Climate Program CCSP and NOAA goal structure Climate Change Science Program Improve knowledge of the Earth’s past and present climate …. and improve understanding … of observed variability and change Improve quantification of the forces… Reduce uncertainty in projections…. Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of … ecosystems … … manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change. NOAA Climate Goal Structure –Observations and Analysis –Climate Forcing –Climate Predictions and Projections –Climate Impacts on Ecosystems –Regional Decision Support

4. NOAA Climate Program Management NOAA Management PPI NOAA Research Climate Program Board Climate Program Office SAB Climate Working Group Scientific and programmatic advice Program Manager chairs Board All NOAA LO’s represented Develops program plans and policies Overall program management Integration of climate activities across LO’s Interface with CCSP 10

5. Climate Program Office Functions Programming & Planning Research & Development Transition Products to & Operations Services

6. Climate Program Office Organization Climate Assessments and Services Division Climate Observation Division Research Programs Division Program and Planning Division Administrative Services Division Director

7. Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction Program (CDEP) Toward an Integrated, Requirement Based, and Products Driven Applied R&D Program Program Manager, Ming Ji

8. CDEP Goals Transition to Operations Contributing to enhanced NWS intra-seasonal to inter-annual climate forecast operations Enhancing Products and Services Contributing to enhanced NOAA climate products and services Observing System Evaluation Provide feedbacks to climate observing system

9. CDEP Strategy Applied Research Centers (ARCs) –Mission oriented R&D efforts (including directed research) –Stable funding to enable long term R&D efforts –Unique capabilities –Close linkage with RISA (e.g., CSES, CDC, COAPS) A Competitive R&D Program –Research to Operations Transition: forecasts and applications product development (CTB) –Climate model improvements (CPTs) –Observing system evaluation (annual report) –Host for other relevant NOAA and interagency efforts IRI –End-to-End climate prediction research and applications –Infrastructure for experimental prediction, forecast applications –International Prediction, Assessments, Applications

10. CDEP Priorities Transition to Operations Baseline for seasonal forecast skill score (Seasonal Predictability) Improved operational forecast models (CPTs) Experimental Multi-model ensemble forecasts (CTB) Application Products and Services Agriculture Fire danger Water resource management (Hydrological f’cst-wk2 to seasonal) Energy International applications Climate Observing System Evaluation Annual NOAA climate observing system assessment reports Applied Research (Long term, all goals) Regional models/down scaling for fcsts, assessments Predictability on subseasonal to decadal time scales Ocean/coupled data assimilation prospects/methodologies

11. Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) Process Understanding to Advance Climate Services Program Managers, Jin Huang & Mike Patterson

12. CPPA Goals - Improve the understanding and model simulation of ocean, atmosphere and land-surface processes - Determine the predictability of climate variations on intra-seasonal to- interannual time scales - Advance NOAA’s operational climate forecast, monitoring, and analysis systems - Develop climate-based hydrologic forecasting capabilities and decision support tools for water resource applications

13. CPPA Priorities Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases, e.g., Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC), stratus deck experiment (VOCALS) Land-Atmosphere Interactions - develop land surface model and assimilation systems for use in climate forecast models to understand and model land-atmosphere interactions - develop and evaluate high resolution regional climate models Coupled Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions - evaluate and improve the coupled o-l-a modeling of the climate system, e.g., regional reanalysis, North American monsoon experiment (NAME), western mountain hydroclimate, drought predictability, monsoon experiment over South America (MESA) Water Resource Applications - improve hydrologic forecasting - develop decision support tools

14. FY06 CPPA Thrust: Drought Monitoring And Prediction Real-time and retroactive Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) provide soil moisture for monitoring and predicting drought; North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) and Western Mountain Climate Studies will improve climate/hydrologic forecasts in the West; Understanding and attribution of oceanic and land surface influences on drought processes; National Long-Range Hydrologic Prediction System will provide central guidance products for drought monitoring & prediction and water resource management

15. Climate Variability and Prediction Program (CLIVAR) Predictability and Fundamental Prediction Capabilities Program Manager, Jim Todd

16. U.S. CLIVAR identify and understand the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales and evaluate their predictability; expand our capacity in short term (seasonal to interannual) climate predictability and search for ways to predict decadal variability; better document the record of rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events, and evaluate the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future; evaluate and enhance the models used to predict climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric composition. U.S. CLIVAR is a research program with several related goals:

18. The CPT (Climate Process Team) is a new paradigm established by the U.S. CLIVAR program that brings together observationalists, theoreticians, small-scale modelers and scientists at the modeling centers to work closely together to improve parameterizations of a particular process in one or more IPCC-class models. Three “pilot” CPTs have been funded through an interagency announcement. Climate Process Team

19. Low-latitude Cloud Feedbacks on Climate Sensitivity CPT Lead PI: Christopher S Bretherton, University of Washington Goal - To increase our understanding of tropical and subtropical cloud feedbacks on climate sensitivity, and reduce the large uncertainty in GCM simulations of these feedbacks: 1.Diagnose in detail the reasons for different behavior of NCAR vs. GFDL low cloud distribution with 2xCO2 2.Try to constrain the relevant cloud feedbacks using current and historical data, especially the low cloud feedbacks relevant to (1). 3.Improve relevant GCM parameterizations using best available physics, focusing especially on cloud microphysics, shallow and deep cumulus convection, and cloud-topped PBLs.

20. Thank You