1. 1 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 is there a business case for a European space weather service? Systems Engineering & Assessment Ltd (SEA) Chris Chaloner Chris.Chaloner@sea.co.uk ESA Contract:18459/04/NL/LvH ESA Study Manager:Alain Hilgers (Alexi Glover) SEA Study Manager:Tim Woodward

2. 2 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 structure study context and objectives methodology results summary and conclusion

3. 3 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 project context previous studies parallel studies 2000 other studies <2000 SW applications pilot project SDA infrastructure C-B study SDA = Service Development Activity

4. 4 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 SW mitigation: decision logic SW effect impact on system? don’t care N accept? Y accept Y mitigate N residual impact

5. 5 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 generic SWS model raw SW measurements raw SW measurements database data processing and modelling SWS data products users

6. 6 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 business case data summary raw SW measurements raw SW measurements database data processing and modelling SWS data products users LoS scenarios SW impacts SWS benefits SWS costs market data SWS provider/SWENET SWS user measurement costs

7. 7 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 data definition: benefit data frequency of SW conditions risk to system effectiveness of SWS XX benefit  SW impacts = from science + observations from users from providers + users

8. 8 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 benefits data: by SWS forecastnowcastpostcast GIC geomagnetic field ionosphere space environment aurora 1 000M€ 100M€ 10M€ 1M€

9. 9 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 benefits data: by industry

10. 10 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 levels of service: overview

11. 11 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 net benefits LoS1 –relies on continuation of scientific networks –provides nowcasts LoS3 –has low external dependencies –is more costly –provides forecasts –larger benefits LoS1: ground based LoS2: hitchhiker LoS3: dedicated satellites

12. 12 SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 2006 conclusion costs are relatively straightforward benefits much more difficult to quantify –some benefits are strategic and unquantifiable benefits split 50:50 between nowcasts and forecasts as usual: –small initial investment brings large benefits –but even the largest system has benefit:cost of ~5:1