1. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather and Management of Environmental Risks and Hazards Risto Pirjola, Kirsti Kauristie, Hanna Lappalainen Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space Research Unit

2. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Contents General about Space Weather ESA & EU GMES Programme Space Weather and Risk Management Conclusions

3. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 ’Space Weather’ (whose origin is in solar activity) refers to time-variable particle and electromagnetic conditions in the near-Earth space that may cause problems to space-borne and ground-based technological systems and even endanger human health. This is the definition adopted from the US National Space Weather Program. Does space weather only exist when technological systems are present (cf. terrestrial weather)? Is all solar-terrestrial research space weather research?

4. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004

5. Spacecraft environment Energetic particles and radiation: –charging –single event effects –erosion Electromagnetic variations: –particle acceleration –induced currents –attitude control Atmospheric drag: –changes in orbits –attitude control –space debris

6. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Ionospheric effects on communication and navigation Phenomena: –solar UV and X-ray radiation –auroral particles –ionospheric irregularities Consequences: –unpredictable variations in the ionosphere –scintillation Vulnerable technology: –ground-to-ground and ground-to-satellite communication –GPS and other global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)

7. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Effects below the ionosphere Aviation: –cosmic rays, solar energetic particles, ionospheric variability –aircraft crew and passengers, electronics, communication and navigation Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC): –geomagnetic field variations, geoelectric field –electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables, railway systems (Figure by FMI)

8. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Effects on power transmission systems Saturation of transformers, which may lead to: Production of harmonics Relay trippings Increased reactive power demands Voltage fluctuations Unbalanced network, even a collapse Magnetic stray fluxes in transformers Hot spots in transformers, even permanent damage

9. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Finnish high-voltage power system

10. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Measurements of GIC in the Finnish high-voltage power system

11. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 GMES RISK MANAGEMENT The term ”Risk Management” is determined via the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Programme Objective: to establish European capability for the provision and use of operational information for GMES purposes in 2008: -Initial Period 2001-2003; -Implementation Period 2004-2007 oESA: Earth Observation, GMES Service Element (GSE) oEU:Sub-Area in the Aeronautics and Space Priority of the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) GMES Priority Themes contain ”Systems for Risk Management”. –Goal: risk management in areas critical for Europe (floods, forest fires, oil spills, landslides, stability of man made structures, etc.) –Relevance: citizens’ concerns; public security; etc. –Potential users: governmental (national and regional) civil protection agencies

12. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 GSE Risk Services 10 Services in the consolidation phase 3...5 will be selected for continuation. Most services monitor changes slower than relevant time scales in Space Weather. An exception: RISK-EOS –prevention, early warning, crisis and post-crisis management –focus on floods and forest fires

13. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 GSE implementation plan FP6 calls SDAs+SWENET

14. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather & GMES Space weather issues should follow the ’GMES philosophy’: Space weather is both a direct natural hazard and an indirect risk to monitoring other hazards. Three main application areas: –satellite environment –effects on telecommunication and navigation –safety of aviation

15. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather & GMES to identify space weather risks to near real-time GMES services to prototype and demonstrate operational services for managing space weather risks to remote sensing systems, to telecommunication and navigation and to aviation to envisage future space weather research areas that are most important for GMES activities to specify areas and tasks best suited for international and European collaboration

16. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather & Risk Management Solving how serious consequences space weather can cause to risk management activities and determining the occurrence rates of different failures would be the first tasks in a ‘SpaceWeather/GMES’ project. OASIS Examples of GMES Risk Management projects prone to disturbances produced by space weather DISMAR RISK-EOS Space Weather

17. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather & Risk Management RISK-EOS ( EURORISK) http://www.risk-eos.com/ risk management project in GSE operational services for flood and forest fire monitoring and management utilises satellite observations in combination with other data sources (ground-based, air-borne and marine) and models Space Weather

18. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather & Risk Management DISMAR (Data Integration System for Marine Pollution and Water Quality) http://www.nersc.no/Projects/dismar aims at an advanced information system for monitoring marine environment utilises radar and optical data from Earth Observation satellites Space Weather

19. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather & Risk Management OASIS selected IP in EU FP6 (IST) aims at setting up a crisis management infrastructure communication, positioning and data transfer must be available 24 h per day utilises satellite and ground- based systems dependent on GPS or other global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) Space Weather

20. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Space Weather Risk Indices & Risk Management Space Weather Risk Indices will be developed and used to describe the operational conditions of different technological systems from the space weather viewpoint. A service prototype for operational monitoring of Space Weather Risk Indices in the application areas: –satellite services –RF communication –aviation Support from the following research areas: –solar data and models –radiation environment –ionospheric conditions

21. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 ESA Space Weather Pilot Project & GMES Risk Management ESA SWPP = 17 Service Development Activities (SDA) in 2003-2005 –‘GEISHA’ (ONERA, France) -> Satellite Environment Investigations of occurrence rates of satellite anomalies due to radiation effects –‘SWIPPA’ (DLR, Germany) -> Ionospheric effects on communication and navigation Improved monitoring of ionospheric conditions above Europe (TEC maps, scintillation model) –‘SOARS’ (UCL, UK) -> Aviation Prediction and mitigation of space weather effects on aviation systems (electronics, navigation, communication, air traffic management)

22. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 EXAMPLE OF SPACE WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT Case: Aviation, Oct.-Nov. 2003 U nexpected solar activity at the end of October and beginning November 2003 had remarkable effects on the operation of commercial airlines. The disruptions in the communication were sufficiently serious that the flow of air traffic in certain corridors had to be reduced. This was the case particularly across the North Atlantic where aircraft had to be spaced further apart due to concerns that communications would be disrupted at critical times. Concerns about enhanced radiation levels led to advise aircraft to fly at lower altitudes. As a consequence, aircraft carried additional fuel loads and were sometimes forced to follow different routes. Warnings of this severity were not issued to European airlines. In hindsight, the European response was more appropriate for the observed activity. The intensity of the solar energetic particle emission in Oct.-Nov. 2003 remained much lower than during some past events - e.g. in 1956 - and plans of responses to such risk levels are essential.

23. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 FICTITIOUS EXAMPLE OF SPACE WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT Scenario: Harsh meteorological conditions and a strong space weather storm (similar to the Oct.-Nov. 2003 storm) occur simultaneously. An oil tanker and a passenger ship are involved in a boat accident on the Baltic Sea. Crisis management is coordinated by a centre with a fixed or mobile position. The rescue teams are equipped with GPS. Challenges: to monitor the rapidly varying meteorological conditions to maintain the voice transfer at any time between the coordination centre, the rescue teams and, if possible, the ships involved in the accident to locate the rescue teams (the positions must be refreshed every few minutes). to monitor the oil leakage via optical images to be refreshed every 15 minutes ESA/ Envisat / ASAR - MERIS

24. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 SPACE WEATHER RISK SERVICE MODULES: -Earth Observation Satellites -Telecommunication & Navigation -Ground-Based Technological Systems & Aviation INPUT DATA DATA European Space Agency Space Weather European Network (SWENET) NOAA-SEC Replica SOHO ACE GOES Ground-Based Networks Risk Indices Warnings - Nowcasts - Forecasts GMES Service Centre Space Weather Risk Service

25. COSPAR, Paris, July 18-25, 2004 Conclusions Space weather with its impacts on technological systems in space and on the ground is an application of solar-terrestrial physics. The ESA & EU GMES programme provides a good reason to sharpen European space weather activities. Regarding GMES, space weather should be considered to be a direct natural hazard and an indirect risk to monitoring of other hazards. Space weather is being introduced to EU FP6, and a success now may facilitate possibilities of broader space weather projects in FP7. Future funding from EU and ESA for space weather purposes requires the definition of applications, services and customers. Continuous basic scientific research is needed in solar-terrestial physics to develop space weather services.