1. Modelling urban pollution within the UK scale integrated assessment model, UKIAM Helen ApSimon, Tim Oxley and Marios Valiantis UK Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling Imperial College London

2. UKIAM- a national scale model including urban areas Modelling urban background concentrations-PPM model Illustrations for particulate matter PM10 Modelling NO2, and urban ozone deficit Current developments including roadside concentrations in relation to AQ limit values

3. ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING: Imported: EMEP + ASAM tool FRAME(CEH) PPM(Imperial) BRUTAL (Imperial) UK Integrated Assessment Model: UKIAM UK SOURCES Projected UK emissions: NETCEN ENTEC,CEH Abatement options and costs ENTEC NARSES SHIPPING ENTEC ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERIA: Ecosystems: CEH Human health & Urban air quality UKIAM->Integrated analysis of either specified scenarios, or optimised selection of abatement options converging to achieve environmental criteria at least cost (Imperial)

4. PPM receptor oriented model : urban back- ground->UK scale 5 x 5 km grid Elevated source Volume source to 100 m 10 m high Gaussian plume Uniform over mixing layer SUPERIMPOSED BACKGROUND- other sources/imported ROADSIDE INCREMENT- BRUTAL model MODELLING COMPONENTS IN UKIAM for UAQ Chemical conversion for NO2

5. k Stedman (UK NOx data for 1996) 33 Carslaw NOx data for LAQN for 1998 “ “ “ “ 1997 “ “ “ “ 1996 25 26 24 IIASA – PM in London for 2001 (background sites only; R 2 =.9116 ) 24 PPM model: contribution from home square 5x5 km 29-33 Comparison empirical modelling C= k.E +X E= emission kT in 5x5km gridsquare, C  g/m3

6. PM 10 Modelling Superimposes: primary contribution due to UK sources using PPM (PWC 2.2) + imported primary PM cont. from EMEP modelling (PWC 0.8 ug.m3) PLUS secondary PM, SIA ( NB no SOA) PLUS additional background of 5 to 9 ug/m3 for rural and city populations respectively (natural, sea salt, road resusp. Intermittent sources) NB No TEOM correction applied

7. Urban background PM 10 concentrations- London 20002020

8. UKIAM :background NO2 Satellite data

9. Simple treatment chemistry NO, O3, NO2 i) model total NOx = NO + NO2 ii) total oxidant O3b +  NOx = O3 + NO2 111) mean rate dissociation ~  J[NO2] ____________________________ = F oxidation NO->NO2 ~ k,[NO], [O3] If F=1 same as photo-stationary state. Generates quadratic equation for NO2

10. Comparison of predicted NO 2 by PPM and Jenkin NNPM with Fit 1 NNPM with Fit 2 Fit 1 & Fit 2 @ 9.48% Pry NO 2 & 35.7ppb O 3 PPM @ 10% Pry NO 2 & 35ppb O 3

11. Background sites 2002 2005 Bexley Bloomsbury Brent Eltham Hackney Lewisham North Kensington Southwark 1 Teddington Tower Hamlets 1 Wandsworth 2 West London PPM @ 5% pry NO 2 & 35ppb O 3

12. Reducing urban NOx emissions -> local increase in urban ozone concentrations. Estimate from change in secondary NO2 and corresponding ozone deficit

13. Urban ozone decrement over London: 2000 and 2020 20002020

14. ASAM- European scale (50km) UKIAM- UK scale (5km) BRUTAL- Background Road & Urban Transport modelling of Air quality Limit Values-> Superimpose road-side on background @ 1x1 km Road network + traffic data-> traffic emissions individual roads and gridded Pop. Data -> urban areas/roads (canyons etc)