1. Acid Rain Cooperation in Europe

2. The Problem  Svante Oden (1968): “The Acidification of Air and Precipitation and its Consequences.”  SOx, NOx -> transported over the continent - >form acids in precipitation or dry form  Damage to health, forests, lakes, soils, ecosystems – particularly in Sweden, Norway  International environmental externality

3. The Actors  Leaders: Sweden, Norway –1972 Conference on the Human Environment  Laggards: UK, Germany, Communist Eastern Europe

4. The Breakthrough  1975 Helsinki Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe –USSR and US interested in détente –Environment the most convenient object of cooperation –Scandinavians saw an opportunity, so did Canada –The UN Economic Commission for Europe –lead agency  Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention (LRTAP), 1979  EMEP Protocol (1984)

5. More Lead Actors  West Germany: the death of the Black Forest  30% club: Scandinavians, W. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Canada, France  The First Sulfur Protocol (1985): –30% of 1980 emissions by 1993

6. The Protocols  The Nitrogen Oxides Protocol (1988) –Freeze emissions at 1987 levels by 1995  VOC Protocol (1991) –30% of emissions (base b/w 1984 and 1990) by 1999.  The Second Sulfur Protocol (1994) –Differentiated targets bases on critical loads for acidification for 2000 and 2010;technology standards  The Protocol on Heavy Metals (1998 )  The Protocol on POPs (1998)  Gothenburg Multipollutant Protocol (1999)

7. Regulatory Innovation  Critical loads: “the highest load that will not cause chemical changes leading to long-term harmful effects on the most sensitive ecological ecosystems” (Levy 1995, p. 61). Why negotiate on the basis of critical loads estimates?

8. Critical Loads for Acid Deposition (red-high sensitivity, blue –low)

9. The RAINS Model Integrate science in international policy  Emissions module  Cost module  Dispersion module  Effects module (critical loads)

10. Second Sulfur Protocol: Correlation of SO2 Emission Ceilings and RAINS Recommendations

11. Second Sulfur Protocol (1994)  60% gap closure against critical loads  Differentiated targets  Requirement to apply BAT, achieve up to 90% desulfurization of emissions from large sources

13. The Gothenburg Protocol (1999)  Multiple effects: Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone  Multiple pollutants: emission ceilings for SOx, NOx, VOCs and ammonia (NH3) by 2010  Based on RAINS outputs  Emission limits for large combustion sources, dry cleaning, cars, trucks based on BAT  If implemented, Europe’s sulfur emissions should be cut by 63%, its NOx by 41%, VOC by 40%, and ammonia by 17% compared to 1990.

14. Gothenburg Protocol: Correlation of SO2 emission ceilings and RAINS Recommendations Model Input vs. Protocol: SO2 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 02004006008001000120014001600 J1 (final scenario from RAINS) Protocol (accepted terms) Poland Bulgaria Romania Spain German y France Italy Hungary UK Greece

15. EU Directives  Large Combustion Plant Directive (1988)  Large Combustion Plant Directive II (2001)  National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001)

16. Acid Rain Cooperation in Europe Success or least common denominator agreements?

17. Emissions in the EC NOx-24%; SO2 -58%

18. Air Pollution in the US

19. Acidifying Emissions in Central and Eastern Europe

20. Conclusions What facilitates cooperation?  Information: change of strategies/interests  Issue linkage (both within regime and other regimes e.g. EU)  Science-policy linkage  Small number of actors – easier to overcome collective action problems

21. RAINS Asia?