1. Space Weather Risk Risto Pirjola, Kirsti Kauristie, Hanna Lappalainen, Ari Viljanen, Antti Pulkkinen Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space Research Unit EUROEM’2004, Magdeburg, Germany, July 12-16, 2004

2. Contents General about Space Weather ESA & EU GMES Programme Space Weather and Risk Management Conclusions

3. ’Space Weather’ refers to time-variable particle and electromagnetic conditions in the near-Earth space that may cause problems to space-borne and ground-based technological systems and even endanger human health. Solar activity is the origin of space weather.

5. Solar-Terrestrial Research

7. Spacecraft environment Energetic particles and radiation: –charging –single event effects –erosion Electromagnetic variations: –particle acceleration –induced currents –attitude control Atmospheric drag: –changes in orbits –attitude control –space debris (Figure by SPINE)

8. RF communication Phenomena: solar UV and X-ray radiation, auroral particles, ionospheric irregularities Consequences: unpredictable variations in the ionosphere, scintillation Vulnerable technology: ground-to-ground and ground-to-satellite communication, GPS and other global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) (Figure by ISES/RWC Warsaw)

9. Effects below the ionosphere Aviation: –cosmic rays, solar energetic particles, ionospheric variability –aircraft crew and passengers, electronics, communication and navigation Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC): –geomagnetic field variations, geoelectric field –electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables, railway systems (Figure by FMI)

10. Effects on power transmission systems Saturation of transformers, which may lead to: Production of harmonics Relay trippings Increased reactive power demands Voltage fluctuations Unbalanced network, even a collapse Magnetic stray fluxes in transformers Hot spots in transformers, even permanent damage

11. Finnish high-voltage power system

12. Measurements of GIC in the Finnish high-voltage power system

13. Finnish natural gas pipeline

14. Measurements of GIC in the Finnish natural gas pipeline

15. GMES RISK MANAGEMENT The term ”Risk Management” is determined via the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Programme Objective: to establish European capability for the provision and use of operational information for GMES purposes in 2008: -Initial Period 2001-2003; -Implementation Period 2004-2007 oESA: Earth Observation, GMES Service Element (GSE) oEU:Sub-Area in the Aeronautics and Space Priority of the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) GMES Priority Themes contain ”Systems for Risk Management”. –Goal: risk management in areas critical for Europe (floods, forest fires, oil spills, landslides, stability of man made structures, etc.) –Relevance: citizens’ concerns; public security; etc. –Potential users: governmental (national and regional) civil protection agencies

16. GSE Risk Services 10 Services in the consolidation phase 3...5 will be selected for continuation. Most services monitor changes slower than relevant time scales in Space Weather. An exception: RISK-EOS –prevention, early warning, crisis and post-crisis management –focus on floods and forest fires

17. Space Weather & GMES Space weather issues should follow the ’GMES philosophy’: Space weather is both a direct natural hazard and an indirect risk to monitoring other hazards. Three main application areas: –satellite environment –effects on telecommunication and navigation –safety of aviation

18. Space Weather & GMES to identify space weather risks to near real-time GMES services to prototype and demonstrate operational services for managing space weather risks to remote sensing systems, to telecommunication and navigation and to aviation to envisage future space weather research areas that are most important for GMES activities to specify areas and tasks best suited for international and European collaboration

19. Space Weather & Risk Management Solving how serious consequences space weather can cause to risk management activities and determining the occurrence rates of different failures would be the first tasks in a ‘SpaceWeather/GMES’ project. OASIS Examples of GMES Risk Management projects prone to disturbances produced by space weather DISMAR RISK-EOS Space Weather

20. Space Weather Risk Indices & Risk Management Space Weather Risk Indices will be developed and used to describe the operational conditions of different technological systems from the space weather viewpoint. A service prototype for operational monitoring of SW Risk Indices in the application areas: –satellite services –RF communication –aviation Support from the following research areas: –solar data and models –radiation environment –ionospheric conditions

21. SPACE WEATHER RISK SERVICE MODULES: -Earth Observation Satellites -Telecommunication & Navigation -Ground-Based Technological Systems & Aviation INPUT DATA DATA European Space Agency Space Weather European Network (SWENET) NOAA-SEC Replica SOHO ACE GOES Ground-Based Networks Risk Indices Warnings - Nowcasts - Forecasts GMES Service Centre Space Weather Risk Service

22. Conclusions Space weather with its impacts on technological systems in space and on the ground is an application of solar-terrestrial physics. The ESA & EU GMES programme provides a good reason to sharpen European space weather activities. Space weather is being introduced to EU FP6, and a success now may facilitate possibilities of broader space weather projects in FP7. Future funding from EU and ESA for space weather purposes requires the definition of applications, services and customers. Continuous basic scientific research is needed in solar- terrestial physics to develop space weather services.