1. Modeling the performance over a range of sites using genetic flexibility (plasticity) Dag Lindgren at Plasticity Adaptation in Forest Trees Madrid (Spain), 27th - 29th February 2008 A mathematical method for systematizing and utilizing the variation over a range, Can be applied to any regeneration material and range, but here applied to provenances and seed orchards over latitudes in Sweden. http://www-genfys.slu.se/staff/dagl/TREEBREEDEX/MadridMeeting.htm

2. One of the plus trees grafted at the seed orchard Västerhus designed AC 3033 Swedish seed orchards have clones from plus trees, which grows in different places (to avoid relatives and contribute to diversity)

3. A Swedish seed orchard with tested clones Västerhus Photo: Anders Fries Oct 2007

4. Plantation with Västerhus seedlings Photo Dag Lindgren

5. Recommended area for using the seed orchard (Planter’s guide 2008-01-01) Västerhus (T10) Latitude for plus tree origin 63°30' Category: Tested Location: Latitude 63,8 N Elevation 15 m Established 1991

6. Swedish seed orchard target areas used for current planning PineSpruce

7. The Finnish “region of provenance” follow mainly “thermal time” (heat sum)

8. The range a material could be used over? Problem: What is the cost of using the same material over a wide range? Problem: What is the cost of having a forest reproductive material composed of components best adapted for different environments? etc

9. The information for Sweden is quantified into “planter’s guide” on the web Transfer of stand and seed orchard seeds http://www.skogforsk.se/KunskapDirekt/default.aspx?p=20295&bmp=11727 Hannerz and Eriksson 2008 In seed orchard proceedings

10. Planter’s guide was used The following shows what I found for stand seeds There are legal limits, most but not all transfers shown are allowed I make the best transfer = 100 and relate to that for other alternatives at the site Figures should be compared horizontally and shows how the performance of a provenance varies over plantation latitudes (at a given altitude)

11. Performance of a provenance at a plantation site in percent of optimal transfer

12. Performance of a provenance at a plantation site in percent of best transfer

13. Comments A general problem: Planter’s guide often advices an optimum at the extreme of what is available as input. For Norway spruce: you would like to see what happens if you transfer more to the north. For Scots pine: too narrow range and not suboptimal northern provenances in the north.. For Scots pine I tried specific seed orchards also

14. Relative performance over plantation sites compared to an optimal seed orchard (=100%)

15. About fits to field data Data from a provenance series extending over Sweden (the Eiche series with Scots pine) was fitted, this may be one of the best series (30 sites in Sweden) However, it is few provenances which are at many places and individual values vary wildly. Statistical variation in index may be 10%. Therefore no good fit is possible, polynomials give vary variable result, we fitted to a standard curve instead (Raymond and Lindgren 1990). Field data are always very imprecise and statistical fits with many degrees of freedom give unreliable information.

16. Model developed by Lindgren and Ying (2000) “Cauchy-distribution” Y (X) is performance in environment X Symmetric around B (the environment where the material is best adapted) C is a measure of flexibility (plasticity, adaptability)

17. Adaptation over environments (Systematic G*E) Plantation sites and seed origins described by a single value Flexibility (C) of seed source best adapted at B. Cauchy function 0 1 Site type value Performance C B

19. Cauchy with flexibility 5 latitudes gives reasonable fits

20. Environment - adaptation Wider zones = lower average maladaptation Performance as a function of zone size 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0 Zone size Performance (max=1) at zone periphery average over zone

21. The Cauchy get an integral Loss over a range (zone size) z (approx small z) Components of the seed source have the range v, the loss is (approx for small z and v) z and v are ranges expressed as fractions of 2C C= flexibility = 5 latitudes! (from Scots pine Swedish data). Thus a Scots pine seed source produces 80% of optimum over a range of 5 latitudes

22. Range of origins = v = 3 latitudes, but considering pollen, range of halfsibfamilies =v/2 = 1.5 latitude Plust tree origins Seed orchard location

23. Inoptimality loss as function of zone size and origin range (latitudes, flexibility = 5 latitudes) Zone sizeRange of origins Loss (%) 405.3 201.3 222.0 244.0 Conclusions: Zone size 2 latitudes is OK (as used) Avoid larger origin range than 2-3 latitudes in seed orchards

24. Useful links and references http://www-genfys.slu.se/staff/dagl/TREEBREEDEX/MadridMeeting.htm http://www-genfys.slu.se/staff/dagl/Breed_Home_Page/SiteNrRange/Sites_Menu.html References: Hannerz M and Ericsson T 2008. Planter's guide - a decision support system for the choice of reforestation material In Lindgren D (editor) Proceedings of a Seed Orchard Conference, Umeå, Sweden, 26-28 September 2007. p 88-94. Lindgren D & Ying CC 2000. A model integrating seed source adaptation and seed use. New Forest 20: (1) 87- 104 Raymond, C.A. and Lindgren, D. 1990. Genetic flexibility - a model for determining the range of suitable environments for a seed source. Silvae Genet. 39: 112- 120.