1. Climate Variability and Irrigation Water Use Joel O. Paz Extension Agrometeorologist Biological and Agricultural Engineering Department The University of Georgia Griffin, GA SWGA Water Summit XIV June 17, 2008 Albany, GA

2. Climate Variability 2-3 months Inter-annual Decadal Climate Change Several decades 50+ years Centuries

3. Changing Ocean Temperature Impacts our climate here in the U.S. and across the globe Image courtesy of NOAA Earth Science Laboratory

4. El Niño is one phase of an oscillation in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific Ocean that can steer weather systems in the southeastern US and elsewhere. El Niño is considered the warm phase of the oscillation. La Niña (sometimes known as El Viejo) is the opposite atmospheric pattern from El Niño. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

5. El Niño is one phase of an oscillation in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the eastern Pacific Ocean that can steer weather systems in the southeastern US and elsewhere. El Niño is considered the warm phase of the oscillation. La Niña (sometimes known as El Viejo) is the opposite atmospheric pattern from El Niño. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

6. SST and Drought  Modeling work has now attributed the major North American droughts of the last century-and-a-half to global circulation anomalies forced by tropical SSTs with the tropical oceans playing an important, and probably dominant role. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), October 2007

7. SST since 1950 El Niño La Niña neutral

8. ENSO Impacts in the Southeast La Niña Dry Fall, Winter, and Spring Greatly increases Atlantic hurricanes Increases tornadoes in the deep south Greatly increases wildfire risks EL Niño Very wet winter and spring Greatly reduces Atlantic hurricanes Decreases tornadoes in the tornado alley Neutral ENSO phase increases the risk of severe freezes by 3:1 odds.

9. Southeast Climate Consortium Members National Oceanic-Atmospheric Administration USDA Risk Management Agency USDA Cooperative State Research, Extension and Education Service Funding Support

10. Southeast Climate Consortium  Mission: To use advances in climate sciences, including improved capabilities to forecast seasonal climate, to provide scientifically sound information and decision support tools for agriculture, forestry, and water resources management in the Southeastern USA.

11. Management Decisions  Variety selection  Planting dates  Acreage allocation  Amount and type of crop insurance  Marketing  Purchase inputs

12. Analysis of Historical Weather Data Year: 123456789101112131415…16

13. Analysis of Historical Weather Data Year: 1234567891011 Neutral 12131415 El Niño La Niña …16

14. Neutral El Niño La Niña Location Shift La Niña El Niño

15. Regional Crop Yield Map

16. Climate Information and Crop Simulation

17. Application: Crop Simulation Historical weather data ENSO Phases Planting dates Soil types Select AL, FL, GA counties Crop Simulation Models Yield Total amount of irrigation No. of irrigation events

18. Average cumulative irrigation (mm) during the peanut growing season under different ENSO phases Pooled data: Planting dates (9) Soil types (3 per county)

19. CDF : Irrigation Amount Worth County

20. CDF : Irrigation Amount Worth County

21. CDF : Irrigation Amount Worth County

22. CDF : Irrigation Amount Calhoun County

23. Irrigation Amount

24. Best window Simulated Peanut Yield Non-Irrigated

27. AgClimate Website http://www.agclimate.org

28. AgClimate Tools

29. Simulated Crop Yield Select 1 planting date Compare ENSO phases

30. Simulated Crop Yield

31. County Yield Database

32. For additional climate information visit www.agclimate.org For current weather visit www.georgiaweather.net Dr. Joel Paz UGA BAE Dept 770-228-7399 jpaz@uga.edu

34. Deviation from Normal Jan 1 – June 15 Source: Georgia Weather Network (www.georgiaweather.net)