1. Complexity, a bit of chaos and robust adaptive strategies Prof Clive Morley Graduate School of Business

2. Clive Morley ***2 A knowledge economy? Old economy Information economy static dynamic limited resources some key resources unlimited (ideas) efficient use of resourcescreativity, innovation fixed relationshipsadapting relationships

3. Clive Morley ***3 Managing in the new economy Old management New management profits and controlunderstanding, insight organisations designed & builtorganisations emerge strategies designed & builtstrategies emerge top down managementdistributed governance change is a problem,change is ever-present, to be managed a stimulus

4. Clive Morley ***4 Five Contexts unordered ordered complex complicated chaotic simple disorder simple

5. Clive Morley ***5 Contexts Simple Clear cause-effect, right answers exist Complicated Cause-effect discoverable, not obvious More than one right answer Complex Unpredictable, no right answers Creative, innovative approaches needed Chaotic No cause-effect, no point in right answers, turbulence and tension

6. Clive Morley ***6 Leadership in context Simple Clear cause-effect, right answers exist Sense, categorize, respond Proper processes, communicate, delegate Complicated Cause-effect discoverable, not obvious More than one right answer Sense, analyze, respond Experts, judge conflicting advice Complex Unpredictable, no right answers Creative, innovative approaches needed Probe, sense, respond Facilitate ideas, experiments, interaction Chaotic No cause-effect, no point in right answers, turbulence and tension Act, sense, respond What works, re-establish order, clear communication

7. Clive Morley ***7 Robust adaptive strategies strategies relying on predictions won’t work in very uncertain future ideas from analogy with evolution using ideas of complex adaptive systems multiple strategies evolving over time

8. Clive Morley ***8 Robust adaptive strategies Robust strategies work in variety of circumstances Adaptive strategies keep options open Less certain, optimal, efficient, co-ordinated Avoid choice and focus In favour of flexibility and experiment

9. Clive Morley ***9 Robust adaptive strategies Experiments and wide spread searches for ways to success Continual innovation

10. Clive Morley ***10 Robust adaptive strategies Rules for being successful: 1. Keep moving 2. Try multiple direction 3. Use mixture of small, incremental changes and some big ones

11. Clive Morley ***11 Robust adaptive strategies Creating robust adaptive strategies: Invest in diversity Value strategies as real options Map jumps

12. Clive Morley ***12 Robust adaptive strategies Creating robust adaptive strategies: Test population of strategies Bring the market inside Use venture capital performance metrics

13. Clive Morley ***13 Snowden, DJ and Boone, ME 2007 A leader’s framework for decision making, Harvard Business Review Nov Snowden, DJ and Boone, ME 2007 A leader’s framework for decision making, Harvard Business Review Nov Beinhocker, ED 1999 Robust adaptive strategies, Sloan Management Review, Spring Beinhocker, ED 1999 Robust adaptive strategies, Sloan Management Review, Spring Pascale, RT 1999 Surfing the edge of chaos, Sloan Management Review, Spring Pascale, RT 1999 Surfing the edge of chaos, Sloan Management Review, Spring Allee, V 2003 The Future of Knowledge, Butterworth-Heinemann Allee, V 2003 The Future of Knowledge, Butterworth-Heinemann Luehrman, TA 1998 Strategy as a portfolio of real options, Harvard Business Review Sept-Oct Luehrman, TA 1998 Strategy as a portfolio of real options, Harvard Business Review Sept-Oct