1. Investing in Forest Fertilization: tools, measures, analyses By Ralph Winter Forest Practices Branch July 25, 2005

2. ObjectivesObjectives ä review the growth and yield tools that we use ä review stand level outcomes ä review forest level outcomes ä review industry comments ä summary

3. Ministry has comprehensive growth and yield tools ä These tools help integrate biological information with treatment effect and stand management actions ä Tree and Stand Simulator (TASS) and TIPSY are the primary tools to evaluate stand treatments

4. Typical TIPSY output

5. Volume/age information from TIPSY

7. Typical TIPSY output

8. Analysis of a fertilized spruce plantation at age 50 compared to untreated. A volume response at age 70 of 16 cubic metres.

9. Analysis of a fertilized spruce plantation at age 35 compared to untreated. A volume response at age 70 of 17 cubic metres.

10. The Internal Rate of Return for fertilization is dependant on time to harvest Spruce plantaions - 100 km - SI 19.6 5% IRR can be achieved if time to harvest is less than 35 years - 30 to 40 year Govt bond rates are at 4.73%

11. Silviculture affects conditions produced at the forest level m 3 (millions) 2.5 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.5 0 12345 67891011 LRSY untreated harvest schedule treated LRSY äcurrent AAC is maintained longer decades treated harvest schedule

12. Allowable cut effect - sustain harvest levels longer and 5.9 % increase in the midterm Cranbrook TSA

13. Forest level analysis - TFL 52

14. TFL 52 comments

16. Other factors that have been analysed in comprehensive silv strategies ä direct and indirect jobs ä income tax generated ä wildlife habitat ä biodiversity ä Log quality profiles ä changes in harvest ä net revenue impacts ä stumpage

17. SummarySummary ä fertilization research is included in GY & forest models. ä models are used to forecast a variety of measures including volume, value, revenue, ROI and jobs ä analyses indicate that fertilization can have a positive impact when done at the right sites for the right reasons ä every tree to be harvested in the next 20-60 years is in the ground today. Fertilization treatments need to commence soon if significant short or mid term timber supply improvements are desired ä operational support from industry for forest fertilization

18. Industry comments in FIA submissions ä ä “Increase wood volume and utilization. This will increase product output and reduce recovery costs. Also, reduce rotation age” - Bonaparte Kamloops TSA ä ä "Fertilization is a silviculture treatment that can be effectively used to increase the merchantable yield and value of established forests". - TFL 14 ä ä “Operational Fertilization programs have been recognized as a high priority for the future timber supply issues through the TSA silviculture analysis” - Westfraser

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