1. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment Photo image area measures 2” H x 6.93” W and can be masked by a collage strip of one, two or three images. The photo image area is located 3.19” from left and 3.81” from top of page. Each image used in collage should be reduced or cropped to a maximum of 2” high, stroked with a 1.5 pt white frame and positioned edge-to-edge with accompanying images. Michael W. Slimak, Ph.D. Climate Change and Invasive Species The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

2. Source: Koblinsky 2006 ICLEI Observed Temperature Changes 1901 - 2004

3. Observed Temp Trends & Ecosystem Responses Cht. 14, IPCC 2007

4. Urbanization Flow regulation Etc. Climate Change Anthropogenic Change (Drivers) I SS I AG I JG I SDA Biological Impact Spawning Substrate Adult Growth Spawning Days Available Juvenile Growth Flow Stressors Food Sediment Temperature Climate Change not the only Stressor Interactive effect of multiple stressors; climate is exacerbating Temperature, hydrologic, geomorphic ecological processes & species

5. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 4 Take Home Message Earth is getting warmer; climate is changing with a regional texture Anthropogenic global warming due to excess GHG’s; CO2 the most important Rate of GHG increase and rate of global warming is of concern Climate change and invasive species are inextricably linked As climate changes, we can expect ecosystem changes Ecosystem changes results in shifts in plant and animal distributions Rapid ecosystem change favors species with high genetic plasticity Many successful invaders have high plasticity as they are pioneers Profound impact on co-evolution of ecosystems and their components

6. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 5 US Government’s Climate Change Science Program Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) –13 federal agencies –Current research & assessments based on 2003 strategic plan Five broad goals 1. Research of past & present climate change & variability 2. Quantification of Earth’s climate and related systems 3. Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections 4. Understand climate change impacts to ecosystems & humans 5. Knowledge to manage risks & opportunities related to climate change

7. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 6 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Reports 21 Reports due out over the next year The “4 series” involves impacts and adaptation 4.1 Sea level rise 4.2 Thresholds of change 4.3 Impacts on agriculture, biodiversity, land & water resources 4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems 4.5 Impacts on energy production 4.6 Impacts on human health, welfare and human settlements 4.7 Impacts on transportation systems Available at WWW. USGCRP.GOV

8. 2007 IPCC Report on Impacts & Adaptation Main Points for Freshwater Systems & Management Seasonal shift in streamflow – Increased winter flows, less snow storage Decreased water resources in Western US – Decreased groundwater recharge due to increased population and water demand Increased precipitation intensity & variability – Increased flooding & drought in many areas Increased water temp, precipitation intensity, and longer periods of low flows exacerbate water pollution Sea level rise will increase saltwater intrusion into groundwater & estuaries –Decreased freshwater availability in coastal areas

9. Table SPM-1 from IPCC 2007 4 th Assessment

10. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 9 Watersheds are highly sensitive to climate change Global Warming Intensifies the Hydrologic Cycle In many areas significant changes are likely: - hydrology - water quality - ecosystems

11. Overview of impacts of climate change on rivers Temperature increases likely in most regions Rainfall changes less certain: extreme events like storms/droughts will be more common in some areas and less so in others Snowmelt earlier in some regions

12. …. % change in run-off

13. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 12 Current Water Stress Levels Chap. 3, IPCC 2007

14. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 13 Increases in Rainfall Trends in precipitation: 1901-1998 Green = increase Brown = decrease Trends in proportion of precipitation occurring as extreme events: 1910-1995

15. Shift from Snowfall to Rainfall Knowles et al. 2005, AGU

16. Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (MD) 1938 1980 N Marsh Open Water Upland 1 0 1 2 3 Kilometers

17. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 16 Climate Change Effects on Aquatic Invasive Species Several mechanisms of effects and many consequences for AIS Changes in air temperature influence changes in water temperature Changes in precipitation timing and amount affect water quantity and quality, and timing of flows Thermal expansion and polar melting cause sea level rise Increasing atmospheric CO2 decreases pH Effects vary regionally and seasonally Alterations have consequences throughout ecosystem

18. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 17 Some Consequences for Water Quality Re-suspension of bottom sediments & compounds from lower water levels Increased turbidity from more intense rainfall Increased pollution washed from soils from more intense rainfall Increased algal blooms from increased water temperatures Enhanced transfer of volatile & semi-volatile compounds with increasing water temperature Increased acidification from acidic atmospheric deposition Chap. 3, IPCC 2007

19. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 18 Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts Increasing water temperatures Decreasing O 2 concentration, P release from sediments, increasing thermal stability, altered mixing patterns in lakes Earlier ice cover break up, increasing ice free periods Species moving up in altitude and latitude – Changing species composition – Changing seasonality & productivity of plankton – Changing food web interactions Chap. 4, IPCC 2007

20. Evidence of Stream Warming Strong evidence of changes in length of season Freeze dates are later, thaw dates are earlier From J.J. Magnuson and IPCC reports

21. Climate Change & Fish Habitat in US Streams Mohseni et al. (2003)

22. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 21 Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts Increasing UV-B radiation & temperature Increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) Altered biogeochemical cycles Changed (probably increased) net primary productivity Q10 phenomenon Chap. 4, IPCC 2007

23. Increased Biological Production Benke 1993Elliott and Hurley 2000

24. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 23 Is it Possible to Reduce Impacts to Aquatic Ecosystems? Increase resilience of ecosystems Reduce impacts from other stressors (e.g., pollution, acidification, desertification, eutrophication, invasive species) – Likely to enhance resilience to climate change Maintain habitat connectivity, population sizes, genetic diversity Restore habitat – Activities need to account for new environmental conditions SAP 4.4 of US Climate Change evaluates adaptation options

25. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 24 Bottom Line Climate is changing Rate of change is more rapid than previously experienced Will result in profound ecosystem changes Will favor species with high genetic plasticity Likely to have major implications for controlling aquatic invasive species

26. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 25 For additional information… EPA Climate Change www.epa.gov/climatechange/ EPA Global Change Research Program cfpub.epa.gov/gcrp/ Climate Change Science Program www.climatescience.gov/ www.usgcrp.gov Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change www.ipcc.ch/

27. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Assessment 26 Acknowledgements Britta Bierwagen, EPA Margaret Palmer, University of Maryland EPA’s Global Change Research Program