1. OPENING ADDRESS Olivier Appert President of IFP ASPO Seminar Paris 26 May 2003

2. 2 The announcement of the imminent depletion of oil reserves : a recurrent theme « Nearly 4.2 billion barrels of oil had been produced in the United-States since 1859... … No more than 7 billion additional barrels could be produced. » « La Technique moderne » 1919

3. 3 Forecast date of oil conventionnal peak since 1970 ESSO United Nations UK Dept of Energy Hubbert Shell BP World Bank Petroconsultant Ivanhoe Edwards IEA : WEO 1998 USGS Campbell Bartlett IEA : WEO 2000 US EIA Deffeyes Smith « Nemesis » Forecast date of conventionnal peak Date of forecast Source: Energy exploration & exploitation

4. 4 Main arguments of optimists a growing playing field the role of technology demand lower than anticipated

5. 5 Opening of a New Playing Field Countries still closedCountries open since 1993

6. 6 Offshore Oil Exploration and Production Records

7. 7 World Oil Production

8. 8 UK North Sea oil production forecasts during the 80 ’s Mb/d

9. 9 Oil demand Forecasts (WPC 1980) Mb/d Source: Shell Oil company Real level

10. 10 IFP R&D Program Risk assessment in exploration Increasing the success rate in exploration (notably in complex zones) EOR Increasing the sweep efficiency by improving the reservoir characterization, acting on fluid properties and fluid-rock interactions and developing new drilling and well technology applied to complex reservoirs or offshore, etc. Unconventional oil resources Optimizing tar sands and extra-heavy oil exploitation (from reservoir to syncrude production) Energy saving Developing engines with new combustion systems A contribution to a sustainable supply of energy resources

11. 11 Evolution of oil reserves discovered in giant fields* Volumes of oil discovered in giant fields per decade Gb Gbbl *Oil initial reserves greater than 500 Mbbl

12. 12 Impact of Decline Rate on Investment Decline rate assumption 5%; demand growth 2%  around 60 mb/d of additional production capacity

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