1. Forest Successional Processes in the E. S. George Reserve, Livingston County, Michigan Ivette Perfecto John Vandermeer

2. The transformation of the Oak- dominated forests Oak-domination is an anthropogenic product of Native American agriculture and hunting activities. Red maple (Acer rubrum) survived in swamps and is now spreading. American beech (Fagus americana) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) were eliminated from vast areas.

3. The transformation of the Oak- dominated forests Since sugar maple and American beech are not very common in these forests, we expect recruitment limitation to occur. We also expect a fat-tail distribution of seed dispersal (as suggested by Clark et al., 1998) No. seeds Distance

4. The transformation of the Oak- dominated forests Oak Red Maple Sugar Maple American Beech

5. OBJECTIVES 1) Estimate the possible time-course of replacement of oaks by red maple. 2) Estimate the possible long term time- course of replacement of red maples by American beech and sugar maple.

6. SITE AND METHODOLOGY E. S. George Reserve three 100 X 70 M 2 Plus one 100 X 70 M2 plot at the Patterson Lake Facility one 16 hectares

9. 62 surviving offspring: from seedling to 10 cm dbh 2 largest are 70 and 78 years old 60 hectares were surveyed DISTRIBUTION OF BEECH

10. SUGAR MAPPLE

11. Data to be Collected Continue the censuses of small plot (summer 2003-2004) Locate and tag all seedlings and saplings near remnant reproductive red maples (summer 2003- 2004) Seed traps near the two reproductive red maples (fall 2003) Sugar maple seedlings will be planted in forested areas (mainly in the Patterson Lake Nature Center, if it remains available) to verify that suitable microhabitats

12. Analyses Seed traps we will provide an accurate estimate of the seed shadow of the two remnant sugar maples. The data will allow us to determine if there is a "fat tailed" distribution. Spatial simulation model by Higgens et al. (2001)

13. Analyses With the 2004 re-census it will be possible to estimate both the mortality rate of all trees and the growth rate of all trees. Estimates of the time course of the replacement of the oaks and hickories by the red maple. Here the modeling framework will be a simple stage structured model (Caswell, 2001).

14. Future Research Depending on the results, the new proposal to NSF may include aspect of dispersal limitation and neutral competition (Hubble et al, 1999; Vandermeer et al, 2000) as mechanism for the maintenance of diversity. Comparison between these mechanisms in tropical and temperate forests.