1. Caitlin Bryant Jennifer Davis Zach Wooten PREDICTING THE NEED FOR SPECIAL EDUCATION CLASSES

2. OUTLINE Purpose Introduction Model Development Data Collection Data Analysis Conclusions Future Improvements Sources

3. PURPOSE OF OUR STUDY 13.7% of Children Receive Special Ed. Services Budget Cuts What Does This Mean For Students? Is the Number of Special Education Students Predictable?

4. INTRODUCTION Disabilities of Special Education Students Down Syndrome as Our Main Focus Definition of Down Syndrome Data Collection from 20 years

5. MODEL DEVELOPMENT Assumptions: Down Syndrome Model applied to other Disabilities 0.12% of Americans have Down Syndrome All Down Syndrome Children in School at Age 5 All Down Syndrome Students Graduate/Transition Assume all 5-18 Year-Olds in 1990 in School

6. MODEL DEVELOPMENT Equation Variables: x n : total # of students diagnosed with Down Syndrome in year n s : total # of 5 year-olds with Down Syndrome entering public school g: total # of graduating/transitioning Down Syndrome students r : # of Down Syndrome Students in Public School per Year Model Equation: X n = ( x n-1 ) + r ( s – g )

7. DATA COLLECTION Birth Rates for Years 1990-2010 Finding Initial Population, x 0 Plotting the Differences between Years

8. DATA ANALYSIS Histogram doesn’t appear to show Normality Probability Scale Plot:

9. DATA ANALYSIS Normal and Uniform Distributions do not fit Plotting Randomness With Normal Distr.: With Uniform Distr.:

10. CONCLUSIONS Challenges of Educating Students of All Abilities Numbers are Virtually Impossible to Predict There is No Accurate Way for State Legislators to Predict # of Special Needs Students Special Education Budget Cuts Can Not be Justified

11. FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS Creating Models for Each Disability Collecting Information on # of Student Deaths and/or Dropouts Look at Costs of Special Needs Students vs. Average Students for the State Use Information to Create Ideal State Budget for Each State

12. SOURCES SchoolSpeechPathology,. (2011, February 20). School speech pathology blog. Retrieved from http://schoolspeechpathology.wordpress.com/2011/02/20/special-education-budget-cuts-of-2011/ Pearson Education,. (2007). Crude birth and death rates for selected countries. Retrieved from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004395.html Pearson Education,. (2007). Live births and birth rates, by year. Retrieved from http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005067.html Elizabeth, Mary. (2011). Special education statistics. Retrieved from http://www.educationbug.org/a/special- education-statistics.html Health Guide, Initials. (2001-2011). Learning disabilities in children. Retrieved from http://www.helpguide.org/mental/learningdisabilities Wikipedia,. (2011, March 10). Dsm-iv codes. Retrieved from - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DSM-IVCodes Google,. (n.d.). Define: down syndrome. Retrieved from http://www.google.com/search National Down Syndrome Society,. (n.d.). Transition planning. Transition Planning, Retrieved from http://www.kcdsg.org/files/content/Transition%20Planning%20for%20Students%20with%20Down%20Syndro me.pdf U.S. Census Bureau,. (n.d.). American fact finder. Retrieved from http://factfinder.census.