1. Net Energy  Next Energy China Renewable Energy Trade Mission 2006 by Ron Swenson www.SolarQuest.com/Workshops/China

2. Global Warming over the Past Millennium Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20 th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change. Slide from Marty Hoffert NYU (see Smalley)

3. … but what’s coming up? Oil is going to decline …

4. Swenson Curve To avoid deprivation, humanity must match depletion with conservation and enduring substitution. www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson

5. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequences of Delayed Energy Investment begin investment before decline Net Energy Production Begin investment during decline www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

6. Global Solar Energy Balance Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)178,000 Reflected to Space Immediately53,000 Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat82,000 Used to Evaporate Water (Weather)40,000 Captured by Plant Photosynthesis100 Total Energy Used by Human Society 13 Total Energy Used by US Society2.5 Total Human Food Energy 0.6 www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm

7. Thermodynamics of Coal Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination People displaced Extraction uses oil EROI = 9  27 ~ electric quality 1 BOE

8. Thermodynamics of Oil It depends … Pennsylvania? Saudi Arabia? Off-shore? Plus … Ravaged land/oceans Greenhouse gases Water contamination EROI = 10±

9. EROI = 4  12 ~ electric Thermodynamics of Nuclear Plus … Depletion Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process Waste guard for 10,000+ years … How do we value a 1,000 + year wasteland?

10. Thermodynamics of Tar Sands Plus… Greenhouse gases Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas EROI = 2 or 3 Is it worth the trouble?!

11. Thermodynamics of Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROI = -½

12. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time Consequences of Making the Wrong Choice Moving fast with good solutions Net Energy Production Making the wrong choices www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil

13. Thomas Edison “I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” (1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com

14. Thermodynamics of PV EROI: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROI = 10  30 ~ electric

15. Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV EROI: 6 months Life: 20 years EROI = 40  120 ~electric

16.  Next Energy www.HubbertPeak.com/ASPO-USA

17. Since oil is big in the transportation sector… … a short history lesson. How did transportation transform? from solid fuels (hay and then coal) to liquid fuels (oil) And where do we go from here?

18. Lest we forget … They did bring coal to Newcastle.

19. not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.[B]oat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832......not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren 1832 8th President 1837-1841 If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …

20. No joke! The original buggy whip protest

21. The Horseless Carriage

22. From GridLock to Gas Lines

23. Corn Cars & Bean Buses?

24. Back to solid fuels?

25. The All-New DonCar! www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport

26. ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas)

27. Electricity. Not exactly a new idea… Touch? … and it is ephemeral, like solar power. See? A match made in heaven. Lift?

28. The Electric Rail

29. Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) www.ecotopia.com/ST

30. Fuels (solid/liquid/gas) will still have a place… www.ecotopia.com/ST EROI of biofuels too low for urban transport… (not to mention smog, congestion, hazard) Fuels will remain essential for: Airplanes Ships at sea -- with wind power augmentation (KiteTugs) Agriculture But Solar Is the Key to our Transportation Future!

31. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.

32. Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge) 14.5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day 30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day The Basis of Prosperity 20 st Century = Oil 21 st Century = [Renewables] www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley

33. PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr PV increases at 50%/yr

34. The conclusions are simple: We are not doing enough fast enough. To spend our depleting energy capital resources effectively, we must first understand the Thermodynamics (ERoEI) of the alternatives. Then we must act quickly with resolve. Economics or Thermodynamics: Which will it be?

35. Colin Campbell “Photovoltaics … will be economic … when there is serious production.” 1996 www.HubbertPeak.com/Campbell

36. Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil? Yes! “Think TeraWatts” www.solarquest.com/Workshops/China

37. If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result. Captains, cooks, drivers, repairment, and lock tenders will be left without means of livelihood, not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses. Boat builders would suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers would be left destitute. Martin van Buren, Governor of New York, April 1832.