1. Demonstration Event Linz, May 27 th, 2003 Reinhold Deussner - OIR ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level

2. © ÖIR p. 2 Introduction

3. © ÖIR p. 3 Development of IT-solutions Test of solutions within Demonstrators Micro-economic evaluation Macro-economic evaluation Development of IT-solutions Test of solutions within Demonstrators Test of solutions within Demonstrators Micro-economic evaluation Macro-economic evaluation Development of IT-solutions Introduction

4. © ÖIR p. 4 Development of IT-solutions Test of solutions within Demonstrators Micro-economic evaluation Development of IT-solutions Micro-economic evaluation Development of IT-solutions Introduction Impact on Workforce & Training Requirements WP 5500 AICIA Impacts on Regional Economy & Employment WP 5600 ÖIR Impacts on Society and Environment WP 5400 KTI Impacts on Transport Demand & infrastructure Cost Benefit Analysis WP 5700ITW WU Wien Recommendations WP 5800AICIA SOCIO-ECONOMIC STRUCTURES

5. © ÖIR p. 5 Status of work Draft reports 5100Methodology 5200 Socio-economic Framework and Transport Market 5300 Impacts on Transport Demand & Infrastructure 5400Impacts on Society and Environment 5500 Impacts on Workforce & Training Requirements Work in Progress 5600 Impacts on Regional Economy & Employment 5700Cost-benefit analysis 5800 Recommendations

6. © ÖIR p. 6 Macro-economic evaluation

7. © ÖIR p. 7 Trade and Transport Prognosis Socio-Economic Framework Micro-economic evaluation Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions Transport Demand Year 2000 Transport Demand Year 2000 Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000 Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000 Trade Prognosis Trade Prognosis Transport Prognosis Transport Prognosis ALSO Danube Scenarios ALSO Danube Scenarios Transport Infrastructure Transport Market

8. © ÖIR p. 8 Transport Prognosis

9. © ÖIR p. 9 Introduction

10. © ÖIR p. 10 Trade Prognosis Trade Growth: Eastern Europe catches up The European integration makes trade growth stronger than GDP (2 - 4% p.a.) Growth in West and Central Europa relations continues High growth with East Europe and Black Sea Region

11. © ÖIR p. 11 Trade Prognosis Change of commodity structure High value A and B commodities leading Low value C commodities (coal, ores) with a modest development

12. © ÖIR p. 12 Commodities

13. © ÖIR p. 13 Trade Prognosis Growth by imports/exports shows direction of trade flow growth East to West direction: higher growth Smaller basis in tons, in year 2000 at Austrian East border 1,9 times more tons were transported from East to West as from West to East)

14. © ÖIR p. 14 Transport Prognosis

15. © ÖIR p. 15 Recent transport development

16. © ÖIR p. 16 Transport markets Transport Volume on River Danube Waterway (year 2000)

17. © ÖIR p. 17 Transport Prognosis: Results Transport volume by modes Export, Import, Transit - Bavaria and Austria

18. © ÖIR p. 18 Transport Prognosis: Results Growth rates + Road transport ahead: consequences of liberalised transport markets and shortcomings (infrastructure, funding, transport policies) + modest Growth of Danube Waterway Transports without ALSO solutions

19. © ÖIR p. 19 Scenarios of Transport Prognosis

20. © ÖIR p. 20 ALSO Economic Impacts

21. © ÖIR p. 21 Transport Prognosis: Results ALSO solutions: The Danube gains additional 6 million tons

22. © ÖIR p. 22 Transport prognosis: impacts

23. © ÖIR p. 23 Impacts on Road Traffic

24. © ÖIR p. 24 Impacts on Road Traffic

25. © ÖIR p. 25 An Example: Impact matrix of CSL.IP

26. © ÖIR p. 26 Impacts on Society and Environment Calamity abatement on waterway reduces accidents and follow-up consequences Hazardous Goods monitoring Energy saving by more regular driving modus Modal Shift from road to inland navigation reduces global and local emissions NOx reduction (-3 to -4% in Corridor) noise reduction - most important in densely populated urban areas global effects (CO2 reduction) Direct impacts Indirect impacts

27. © ÖIR p. 27 Impact on Workforce Crew on board: in the framework of a growing workload, ALSO provides assistance and relief to human operator, secures proper reaction to emergency situations Additional labour force Creation of additional labour in follow-up services: ports handling, stevedoring, national control centres, system suppliers Crew on board: minimum number regulated Education and training needs Crew: Cargo and transport management, voyage planning, navigation and calamity abatement Improved working conditions

28. © ÖIR p. 28 Regional Econmic Impacts Type of regional economic effects Effects from Investment in ALSO logistic solutions Operation of ALSO logistic solutions Tangible direct effects (Anlagen) system implementation, hard- and software, shipbuilding (?) transport time transport cost logistic cost reduction of environmental risk service quality transport safety education and training effects on industrial location (accessibility, competitive transport market) Intangible direct effects (immateriell) effects derived from modal shift (economy, ecology) multiplier effects Indirect effects (2 nd round)

29. © ÖIR p. 29 Regional Economic Impacts  Modest due to low overall size of investment RIS along Upper Danube: 11 million EUR (administration) private operators: 10 million EUR Indirect Effects  Indirect effects are considerable: ALSO improves the competitiveness of inland navigation versus road transport the competitiveness of industry - thus safeguarding industrial locations (steel) reduction of external cost Direct Effects

30. © ÖIR p. 30 Cost-benefit analysis

31. © ÖIR p. 31 Conclusions

32. © ÖIR p. 32 Conclusions

33. © ÖIR p. 33 Recommendations

34. © ÖIR p. 34 Recommendations

35. © ÖIR p. 35 Time Schedule Nov 2002 Operation and Validation of logistic channels

36. © ÖIR p. 36 Time Schedule Time Schedule WP 5000 WP, 6th SCOM Würzburg

37. Österreichisches Institut für Raumplanung Franz-Josefs-Kai 27 A-1010 Wien tel +43 1 5338747-0 fax +43 1 5338747-66 deussner@oir.at www.oir.at Thanks for Your attention !