1. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk University of Aveiro Emissions and Air Quality Modelling Department of Environment and Planning University of Aveiro (Portugal) Carlos Borrego and Ana Isabel Miranda

2. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Emissions and Air Quality Modelling Air quality is an important issue in a sustainable urban transportation system. SUTRA addressed this question through a cascade of emissions and air quality models, which covers different scales, from the regional to the ”hotspot”.

3. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Emissions and Air Quality Modelling TREM VISUM VADIS Local scale AirWare City level OFIS Regional scale

4. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Transport Emission Model for Line Sources Transport Emission Model for Line Sources TREM allows the estimation of road traffic emissions with high temporal and spatial resolution. Objectives within SUTRA project: Quantification of road traffic emissions for the reference situation and the development scenarios; 1. Development of a link to transportation model; 2. Implementation of new vehicle technologies; 3. Development of a friendly user interface. 4.

5. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Transport Emission Model Methodology E = e  a Emission factor Emission factors from MEET / COST methodology Different vehicle technologies (engine capacity, vehicle mass, emission reduction technology) Average speed approach Future technologies Pollutants: CO, CO 2,NO x, VOC, PM10, SO 2 Transport activity Link to transportation model - Cold start emission with high spatial resolution Link to GIS - High spatial resolution - Spatial analysis of the emission data Different aggregation levels for vehicle classification - Adapted to the data available

6. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Transport Emission Model Total emission for each road segment hot emission cold emission ArcView Network geometry, road segment length Statistical data Vehicle age, emission reduction technology, engine capacity,... VISUM Traffic volume Vehicle speed Number of vehicles under cold engine; Vehicle speed

7. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Transport Emission Model  R Transport Emission Model  R esults Air Pollution models Analysis of Spatial distribution ( join with other GIS information ) Indicators Scenarios Genoa indicators for CO 2 : Total emission: 207 041 (t.year -1 ) Emission per capita: 0.326 (t.year -1 ) Emission per pass-km: 0.351 (kg.km -1.year -1 ) Private transport over total: 96.3 % CO emission from road transport in Thessaloniki

8. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Transport Emission Model Uncertainties estimation for Lisbon City Case Coefficient of Variation (%) CV = s X  100 Data considered speed Series 3 Series 2 Series 1 vehicles by classes vehicles by category total vehicle number      Results : CV emission uncertainty (%)

9. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk 1. TREM Interface available for download in SUTRA Webpage (restricted access to city partners) 2. TREM interface on-line: www.dao.ua.pt/gemac www.dao.ua.pt/gemac Transport Emission Model  i Transport Emission Model  i nterface This software is developed at the Department of Environment and Planning – University of Aveiro – Portugal www.dao.ua.pt/gemac

10. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk VADIS L ocal Scale Model Objectives within SUTRA project: Adaptation of street canyon model to calculate urban air pollution due to traffic road emissions and to estimate local hot-spot values; 1. 2. Validation of VADIS results with air quality data for all city cases; 3. Development of an interface for a friendly user access to model input operations; 4. Simulation of development scenarios by the city partners using the VADIS interface. allows the calculation of urban street canyon air pollution due to road traffic emissions and the estimation of local hot-spots. VADIS Model

11. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Local Scale Model Set-up by 2 independent modules: VADIS_V and VADIS_D Flow and dispersion near obstacles under variable wind conditions Field of application: General description Local dispersion model; Calculation of concentration fields of air pollutants in specific areas of a city.

12. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Local Scale Model Wind data   wind field domain   wind field grid resolution   wind velocity and direction   vertical rotation axis between dispersion and wind field grids Dispersion data   dispersion field domain   dispersion field grid resolution   obstacles and sources coordinates in the domain Boundary Layer Module (VADIS_V) 3-D velocity wind field Lagrangean module (VADIS_D) Emission data (source emission rate) 3-D concentration field TREM

13. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Local Scale Model  evaluation Comparison between CO concentrations measured by the air quality station located at Prata Street and the concentrations calculated by VADIS and FLUENT models. Simulated period: 8/7/1997

14. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Local Scale Model  evaluation Gdansk Domain rotation angle: 0º Wind direction: 113º Wind velocity: 1,3 m.s -1 Simulation period: 1/7/1999 11:00 – 12:00 Geneva Simulation period: 13/1/2001 15:00 – 16:00 Domain rotation angle: 18º Wind direction: 72º Wind velocity: 4,9 m.s -1

15. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk 1. VADIS Interface available for download in SUTRA Webpage (restricted access to city partners) 2. 2.VADIS interface on-line: www.dao.ua.pt/gemac Local Scale Model  interface

16. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk AirWare City-level Model Integrated model-based information and decision support system for air quality assessment and management. Objectives within SUTRA project: Development of a tool for comprehensive impact assessment urban transportation, that goes beyond the air quality aspects; 1. Adaptation of a rule-based expert system for screening level environmental impact assessment to the project requirements; 2. Development of checklists and rule-sets consistent with the indicators of sustainable urban transportation, sustainable urban development and economic assessment. 3.

17. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk City-level Model City-level modeling of air quality (SO 2, NO x, TPS)  Gaussian short-term and long-term models (ISC3/AERMOD)   3-D dynamic Eulerian model (TIMES/URBAN) for conservative pollutants or first-order decay and conversion (SO 2 =>SO 4, NO=>NO 2 )   Dynamic (24 hours) photochemical box model (USEPA PBM) AirWare system Geographical Data Population Data Emission Inventories Meteorological Data Air Quality Data Economic Data Input information using air quality models

18. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk City-level Model Gdansk SC 1 (young and virtuous) ISC application

19. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk City-level Model ISC application Lisbon SC1 (young and virtuous)

20. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Ozone Fine Structure model OFIS Ozone Fine Structure model Objectives within SUTRA project: allow authorities to assess urban air quality by means of a fast, simple and still reliable model; refine a regional model simulation by estimating the urban subgrid effect on pollution levels. Adaptation of photochemical air quality model (OFIS) for the set of application cases; 1. Development of interfaces between the regional photochemical air quality model and the traffic, emission and energy models, as well as the assessment methods. 2.

21. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Ozone Fine Structure model Sample of horizontal grid layout Main inputs:   emissions: hourly non-urban, suburban and urban emissions rates   meteorological data: daily average wind speed and direction, temperature and temperature lapse rate above the mixing layer   boundary conditions: daily average regional background concentrations (NO, NO 2, O 3 and other species) Wind direction suburban 1D multibox model urban

22. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk AOT60 and IND120 indicators Ozone Fine Structure model Methodology applied IND120 IND120 (number of days) Spatial graphs of days with 8 hour running average ozone concentration exceeding 120 μg.m -3 values. AOT60 AOT60 (ppb x hours) The accumulated exposure above the threshold concentration of 60 ppb (120 µg.m -3 ) calculated from the daily maximum 8-hour means.

23. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Ozone Fine Structure model Ozone Fine Structure model application   Number of days with 8 hour running average ozone concentration exceeding 120 μg.m -3 (IND120)   Wind rose of prevailing wind during the summer semester of 1999. Spatial graph of exceedances Genoa Area of application: 150x150km 2 area surrounding Genoa

24. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk AOT60 Thessaloniki AOT60 Ozone Fine Structure model Ozone Fine Structure model application Area of application: Reference scenario

25. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Ozone Fine Structure model Ozone Fine Structure model application SC1 Young and virtuous SC2 Young and vicious SC3 Old and virtuous SC4 Old and vicious Thessaloniki AOT60 Area of application:

26. University of Aveiro Final Meeting and Project Review 23/24 June 2003 Gdansk Final Remarks No single model can cover the entire set of impacts, so a few well selected and complementary ones were applied to derive different indicators. TREM Pressure indicators:  Total passenger transport emission CO 2 in a year (tons.yr -1 )  Passenger transport emission CO 2 per capita in a year (tons.yr -1.capita -1 ) ... VADIS State indicators:  Peak concentration CO, NO x and PM10 (µg.m -3 ) AirWare State indicators:  NO 2 annual average concentration (µg.m -3 )  Above maximum threshold NO x (%)  Population exposure ... OFIS State indicators:  O 3 annual average concentration (µg.m -3 )  AOT (max)  E120(domain) ... These MODELS may be applied for addressing the issues raised by the EU Air Quality Framework Directive