1. Scientific Advice for the Management of Transboundary Marine Eutrophication

2. Characteristics of the Baltic Enclosed and shallow Enclosed and shallow –Long residence (memory) of pollutants –All countries interdependent –Large advective (water flow) inputs to coast from offshore and between basins Non point nutrient sources dominate Non point nutrient sources dominate Large regional variations in Large regional variations in –Sources (natural and anthropogenic) –Socio-economics

3. Management objective “a healthy Baltic Sea environment with diverse biological components functioning in balance, resulting in a good ecological status and supporting a wide range of sustainable human economic and social activities” “a healthy Baltic Sea environment with diverse biological components functioning in balance, resulting in a good ecological status and supporting a wide range of sustainable human economic and social activities” (HELCOM’s strategic vision)

4. The role of scientific decision support There is a mismatch between the kind of ecosystem people want and what is actually attainable There is a mismatch between the kind of ecosystem people want and what is actually attainable What is attainable is also dependent on costs and how long we are willing to wait What is attainable is also dependent on costs and how long we are willing to wait There is a large risk to implement inefficient and expensive measures – science can help us avoid this There is a large risk to implement inefficient and expensive measures – science can help us avoid this Science can describe these choices and help us set realistic environmental goals what are actually attainable Science can describe these choices and help us set realistic environmental goals what are actually attainable

5. The ultimate goal for linking science & management The cost for improvements in the Baltic will follow the upper curve without a good understanding of cost effective measures. The cost for improvements in the Baltic will follow the upper curve without a good understanding of cost effective measures. With good science, we will provide options to reduce cost to the lower curve. With good science, we will provide options to reduce cost to the lower curve.

6. Nutrient inputs Costs, EURO Key Variables 1 Calculate the cost for nutrient reductions at the source from different measures

7. Nutrient inputs Retention Key Variables 2 Calculate the retention of nutrients from different sources in drainage basins

8. Nutrient inputs Costs, EURO Key Variable 1+2 Nutrient inputs Retention Calculate to costs of nutrient reductions to the coast Nutrient inputs Cost, Euro

9. B Nutrient concentration Nutrient inputs Key Variables 3 Calculate the nutrient concentrations in different sea areas in relation to inputs

10. Relate nutrient concentrations to specific environmental conditions Environmental state Nutrient concentration B Nutrient concentration Nutrient inputs Key Variables 3

11. A Environmental state Nutrient concentration B Nutrient concentration Nutrient inputs Costs, EURO Environmental state Costs, EURO Linking Key Variables

12. Basic Modules (Changing..) LOAD NUTRIENT BUDGETS COST CALCULATIONS http://WWW.MARE.SU.SE MODELRESULTS FISHWEB NUTRIENT MODEL EMEPLOAD