1. Energy Assurance Gil Weigand Strategic Programs Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate December 10, 2007

2. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 2 U.S. Energy Production, Distribution and Consumption System is Complex Today the system is tightly balanced between supply and demand Disruptions impact economy, jobs, & U.S. competitiveness, and may lead to a recession Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Energy and Efficiency, U.S. Energy Flows 2002 (UCRL-TR-129990-02) https://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php

3. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 3 Avoidance of Costly Energy Disruptions = Energy Assurance Energy Assurance is: The ability to obtain, without costly disruption, the energy required by the United States in assured, economically viable ways to satisfy residential, commercial, and transportation requirements. Disruptions to the Energy We Need Are Inevitable. You Cannot Eliminate Disruptions! You Can, However, Make Their Impact Small.

4. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 4 Energy Assurance Energy Production Distribution Consumption Economic Security Environmental Security Energy Assurance Energy Security National Security Energy Assurance Has Three Critical Parts Energy Assurance Is Also A Complex Relationship Among Four Security Themes

5. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 5 Not All Elements Within These Security Themes Are Under U.S. Control Economic Security Environmental Security Energy Assurance Energy SecurityNational Security Within U.S. Control Out of U.S. Control

6. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 6 Prevailing Conditions Today  U.S. Energy Supply vs. Demand is very “tightly wound” and increasingly lacks the flexibility necessary to cope with inevitable disruptions and competition for supply  Environmental Security increasingly becoming a factor in energy consumption  All major candidates for President have stated the importance of a more independent energy supply and more efficient consumption and distribution of energy for the United States  The threats to Energy Assurance for the United States are increasing and are increasingly outside of U.S. control  Economic Growth and Energy Assurance are tightly linked  Cyber-based systems are perceived by the public as having a poor record for security and the protection of private information

7. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 7 Why An Energy Assurance Technology-Based Effort Now?  The U.S. Public is Poised to Demand Energy Assurance  Technology-Based Solutions Are the Most Viable Option for the Central Focus for Achieving Energy Assurance in the Near Term  They offer the best opportunity to balance Energy, National, Economic, and Environmental Security  They depend upon the existence of a strong U.S. science and technology program  They are completely in U.S. control  They engage a wide and diverse science, technology and production workforce  They address all energy sectors  They address production, distribution, and consumption  They fuel renewed growth and entrepreneurship  They are enabling; not defensive

8. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 8 There is no “Silver Bullet” The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced Between Supply and Demand Harmful Disruptions (status-quo)

9. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 9 Exa-Scale Will Introduce Systems Level Modeling The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced Between Supply and Demand A Small Change Will Have a Big Impact Energy Assurance recursive Fortunately Small Changes Have an Impact on Energy Assurance

10. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 10 Energy Assurance: Path Forward for High Impact Investment Capital Model (VCs drive business to IPO) Dream-Team Model (Industry leads partnership) IPO Companies Demonstration s Solutions, Jobs, $$ Create the New Fix the Legacy Science, Technology, and Innovation Exa-Scale Computing by 2015 and 20 by 20 Industry Will Deliver the Broad Solutions

11. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 11 Achieving Energy Assurance -- Bet on a Science, Technology, and Innovation --  The successful strategy requires a prolific S&T activity targeting all energy sectors to drive innovation and technology-based solutions  The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance  The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems  The successful strategy links the S&T activity with industry to drive energy assurance whether production-, distribution-, or consumption-based solutions into the marketplace

12. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 12 Success Model for S&T Focus for Energy The Essential Three Parts Are: Science and Technology Modeling and Computer Systems Cyber Secure Information

13. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 13 The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance  10 3 simulation & computer capability advancement = innovation cycle (3 to 4 years)  Provide S&T budget stability suitable to support recursive cycle of innovation  10 6 simulation & computer capability advancement = systems engineering development cycle (8 to 9 years)  Provide Demonstration and Deployment budget suitable to support recursive cycle of systems engineering development

14. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 14 The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems  Perfectly secure system is not achievable  Augment traditional device- and filtering- based protection methods with aggressive use of real- time threat detection  Systems have built in capability advancement  Learning  Knowledge discovery  Threat isolation  Performance / Speed / Scope  Systems have built in capability to capture increased knowledge and understanding

15. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 15 Physical Science and Technology Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities Science and Technology Modeling and Computer Systems Cyber Secure Information Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle Energy Storage Nanoscience Geosciences/Climate Bioenergy Superconductivity Combustion

16. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 16 Science and Technology Drivers in Key Science Domains Science DomainsScience and Technology Driver Accelerator PhysicsOptimize a new low-loss cavity design for the ILC AstrophysicsExplosion mechanism of core-collapse supernovae and Type Ia supernovae BiologyCan efficient ethanol production offset the current oil and gasoline crisis? Chemistry Catalytic transformation of hydrocarbons; clean energy & hydrogen production and storage ClimatePredict future climates based on scenarios of anthropogenic emissions CombustionDeveloping cleaner-burning, more efficient devices for combustion. FusionPlasma turbulent fluctuations in ITER must be understood and controlled High Energy Physics Find the Higgs particles thought to be responsible for mass, and find evidence of supersymmetry Nanoscience & Superconductivity Designing high temperature superconductors, magnetic nanoparticles for ultra high density storage Nuclear Energy Can all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle be designed virtually? Reactor core, radio- chemical separations reprocessing, fuel rod performance, repository Nuclear Physics How are we going to describe nuclei whose fundamental properties we cannot measure?

17. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 17 Modeling and Computer Systems Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities Modeling and Computer Systems Cyber Secure Information Science and Technology Zoning and Problem Setup Parallel Graphics and Display of Results Pathforward Engineering Simulation Tools PetaOps Computers & ExaOps Architectures Numerical Mathematics 10 6 Processor Algorithms

18. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 18 Cyber Secure Information Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities Cyber Secure Information Science and Technology Modeling and Computer Systems Knowledge Discovery Real-Time Algorithms for Learning & Detection Simulators Data Integrity Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting Data Analysis Graphs, Statistics, and Linear Programming

19. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 19 Goal of This S&T  Apply novel S&T investigation simultaneously among  Physical R&D in areas (e.g., Transportation, Renewables, or Nuclear Energy),  High Performance Computing and Modeling, and  Cyber Secure Information to develop new or accelerate significantly recent technology advances with direct and near term application to Energy Assurance  The S&T will treat these three central focuses as a whole versus the traditional independence  This approach is novel and will drive towards technology options that have a physical and virtual representation with cyber secure information as an integral element.

20. O AK R IDGE N ATIONAL L ABORATORY U. S. D EPARTMENT OF E NERGY 20 Energy Assurance Timeline Flexibility / Resilience HighLow High Security / Independence 10 years 20 years Today  2010-2019 – 1 st decade Create Science Base for Sustained, Decade-Long Technology Demonstration and Deployment In All Energy Sectors Demonstrate Technical Feasibility of Reaching Energy Assurance for US by 2029 1/3-way Based on Early Technology Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment  2020-2029 – 2 nd decade Technology Demonstrations and Deployments Achieve Energy Assurance Energy Assurance Assessment