1. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Space Weather Effects on Products and Services Supporting Surface Transportation Mark Gunzelman Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research 25 July 2007 Credit to Dr. Ernie Hildner, Richard Barker, and the NOAA NWS

2. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Solar Flare (Electromagnetic Radiation) ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS HF RADIO BLACKOUT SATCOM INTERFERENCE RADAR INTERFERENCE GPS LOSS OF LOCK EFFECTS Geomagnetic Storm (Coronal Mass Ejection) ARRIVAL: 1-4 DAYS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS HF RADIO BLACKOUT POWER GRID PROBLEMS SATELLITE ANOMALIES RADAR INTERFERENCE GPS ERRORS Radiation Storm (High Energy Charged Particles) ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT SATELLITE ANOMALIES RADIATION EXPOSURE AVIONICS GLITCHES

3. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Friendly Fire from Space Weather  We are the mercy of the sun.  Society is increasingly dependent on space-based technologies: Commercial, government, and national security infrastructure Television broadcast and pagers to GPS satellite navigation Such equipment and services are vulnerable to space weather effects. National Space Weather Program – Federal Government interagency initiative 1.Overall Objective a.Speed improvement of Space Weather (SWx) services in the U.S. b.Prepare nation to deal with technological vulnerabilities from SWx i.Centralize program management – Create a Center for SWx R2O - Reinforce the science-to-user chain (targeted & strategic research) ii.Ensure continuity of critical data sources (L1) iii.Investigate the use of new, lower cost micro-satellite technologies

4. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM There is an absence of suitable connection for “academia-to-operations” knowledge transfer and for the transition of research to operations in general. Critical Finding in the recent assessment of the NSWP Space Weather Enterprise Forum, Wash. DC

5. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM GPS and the Solar Cycle S/A On S/A Off Cycle 23 Peak SUNSPOT NUMBERSOLAR FLARES (Not to Scale) 175/30 150/25 125/20 100/15 75/10 50/5 25/0 200/35 Cycle 23 Peak Cycle 21 Peak WAAS Cycle 22 Peak GPS Operational 24 hr GPS 1st GPS Rcvr

6. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities Deep-sea drilling operations Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary FAA navigation systems Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems Power Grids Mining operation Highway construction Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property boundary analysis GPS Customers

7. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Critical To The Economy Pump Gas Watch TV Shop Eat Out Buy & Service Automobile Transact Financially Stay at Hotels

8. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities Deep-sea drilling operations Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary FAA navigation systems Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems Power Grids Mining operation Highway construction Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property boundary analysis GPS Customers

9. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Example of Concern GPS Global Production Value—expected growth: 2003 - $13 billion 2008 - $21.5 billion 2017 - $757 billion Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) – Mar 2005) Global Positioning System Airborne Survey Data Collection: $50,000 per day Marine Seismic Data Collection: $80,000-$200,000 per day Offshore Oil Rig Operation: $300,000-$1,000,000 per day (Courtesy R. Barker)

10. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Solar Flare (Electromagnetic Radiation) ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS HF RADIO BLACKOUT SATCOM INTERFERENCE RADAR INTERFERENCE GPS LOSS OF LOCK EFFECTS Geomagnetic Storm (Coronal Mass Ejection) ARRIVAL: 1-4 DAYS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS HF RADIO BLACKOUT POWER GRID PROBLEMS SATELLITE ANOMALIES RADAR INTERFERENCE GPS ERRORS Radiation Storm (High Energy Charged Particles) ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT SATELLITE ANOMALIES RADIATION EXPOSURE AVIONICS GLITCHES

11. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Geomagnetic warnings and alerts uses: Critical when DGPS high accuracy solutions are required by surveyors Dynamic Positioning (DP) operators will cease operations or resort to back-up options GPS anomaly assessments International oilfield services companies issue "technical alerts" to their surveying and drilling staff for solar storms Drilling and Survey Operations

12. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Precise Positioning Services for Various Types of Vessels, Marine Operations and Construction Support

13. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities Deep-sea drilling operations Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary FAA navigation systems Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems Power Grids Mining operation Highway construction Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property boundary analysis GPS Customers

14. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Irrigation and Fertilizer Strip Installation For Water Conservation and Ground Moisture Control

15. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Friendly Fire from Space Weather  We are the mercy of the sun.  Society is increasingly dependent on space-based technologies: Commercial, government, and national security infrastructure Television broadcast and pagers to GPS satellite navigation Such equipment and services are vulnerable to space weather effects. National Space Weather Program – Federal Government interagency initiative 1.Overall Objective a.Speed improvement of Space Weather (SWx) services in the U.S. b.Prepare nation to deal with technological vulnerabilities from SWx i.Centralize program management – Create a Center for SWx R2O - Reinforce the science-to-user chain (targeted & strategic research) ii.Ensure continuity of critical data sources (L1) iii.Investigate the use of new, lower cost micro-satellite technologies

16. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities Deep-sea drilling operations Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary FAA navigation systems Power Grids Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems Mining operation Highway construction Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property boundary analysis GPS Customers

17. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Growing Space Weather Needs Integration of Space Weather Into NGATS More Efficiency More Capacity More Profitable

18. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Example of Concern The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR Next 6 Years: Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9 Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 Next 12 Years: 1.8 million polar route passengers by 2018 Airlines and Space Weather

19. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Solar Flare (Electromagnetic Radiation) ARRIVAL: 8 min DURATION: 1-2 HOURS HF RADIO BLACKOUT SATCOM INTERFERENCE RADAR INTERFERENCE GPS LOSS OF LOCK EFFECTS Geomagnetic Storm (Coronal Mass Ejection) ARRIVAL: 1-4 DAYS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS HF RADIO BLACKOUT POWER GRID PROBLEMS SATELLITE ANOMALIES RADAR INTERFERENCE GPS ERRORS Radiation Storm (High Energy Charged Particles) ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS DURATION: DAYS EFFECTS HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT SATELLITE ANOMALIES RADIATION EXPOSURE AVIONICS GLITCHES

20. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Communications SatCom and VHF communications are unavailable over the Pole Polar flights rely on HF (3 – 30 MHz) as the primary means of communication inside the 82 degree circle Solar radiation storms can result in a prolonged (days) periods of HF blackout HF Communication only Space Weather Impacts on Polar Routes Radiation Exposure Exposure levels are very small. Two sources: o Galactic Cosmic Rays (always present and inescapable) o Solar Radiation Storms occur sporadically (significant exposure increases are rare, but do occur). Airlines have introduced restrictions on polar route due to this increased radiation

21. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM GPS Ionospheric Ranging Errors and Scintillations Tracking The GPS Signal Is Like Trying To See A 25 Watt Light Bulb 12,000 Miles Up Graphic from Cornell University Scintillations result from severe ionospheric signal scattering. Ionospheric Range Delay result from normal signal propagation through the ionosphere. Amplitude Fading or signal to noise degradation are caused by solar radio bursts.

22. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities Deep-sea drilling operations Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary FAA navigation systems Power Grids Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems Mining operation Highway construction Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property boundary analysis GPS Customers

23. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Pacific Northwest Reliability Coordinator California Mexico Reliability Coordinator Entergy ERCOT ISO Florida Power & Light Hydro Quebec, TransEnergie Ontario - Independent Electricity System SO New England Inc. Midwest ISO New Brunswick System Operator Rocky Desert Reliability Coordinator New York Independent System Operator PJM Interconnection Southern Company Services, Inc Southwest Power Pool Tennessee Valley Authority VACAR-South NERC reliability coordinators distribute geomagnetic storm messages to all power systems entities throughout the USA and Canada North American Electric Reliability Corporation

24. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM SEC Customers – Power Grid

25. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Electric power companies take actions to mitigate geomagnetic storm impacts © ISO New England Inc. 2003 Procedure: Implement Solar Magnetic Disturbance Remedial Action Process Name: Implement Emergency Operations Procedure Number: RTMKTS.0120.0050 Revision Number: 6 Procedure Owner: Steve Weaver Effective Date: March 29, 2005 Approved By: VP Operations Review Due Date: January 1, 2006 1. Discontinue maintenance work and restore out of service high voltage transmission lines. Avoid taking long lines out of service. 2. Maintain system voltages within acceptable operating range to protect against voltage swings. 3. Review the availability of the Chester SVC and Orrington capacitor banks to respond to voltage deterioration if necessary. 4. Adjust the loading on Phase 1 or Phase II, the Cross Sound Cable and Highgate HVdc ties to be within the 40% to 90% range of nominal rating of each pole. 5. Reduce the loading…

26. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Friendly Fire from Space Weather  We are the mercy of the sun.  Society is increasingly dependent on space-based technologies: Commercial, government, and national security infrastructure Television broadcast and pagers to GPS satellite navigation Such equipment and services are vulnerable to space weather effects. National Space Weather Program – Federal Government interagency initiative 1.Overall Objective a.Speed improvement of Space Weather (SWx) services in the U.S. b.Prepare nation to deal with technological vulnerabilities from SWx i.Centralize program management – Create a Center for SWx R2O - Reinforce the science-to-user chain (targeted & strategic research) ii.Ensure continuity of critical data sources (L1) iii.Investigate the use of new, lower cost micro-satellite technologies

27. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Almost all Aspects of Commence in our Daily Routine Activities Deep-sea drilling operations Farming - Pinpoint locations where changes in watering, fertilization or weed control are necessary FAA navigation systems Power Grids Various DoD operations - Aircraft operations, weapon systems Mining operation Highway construction Surveying companies - land surveying, topographic work, and property boundary analysis GPS Customers

28. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Our military and National Intelligence Community rely on alerts and warnings of space weather storms: High-frequency and Satellite communications Precision Navigation and Timing users (GPS users) Radar operations High-altitude operations Space operations Advance warnings of solar storms - “enables space operators to take proactive courses of action protecting 47 satellites that provide strategic and tactical space effects for the warfighter. – MGen William Shelton, Commander, 14AF, Vandenberg AFB, CA, April 2006 National Security Concerns

29. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Critical to Disaster Relief and Recovery Satellites have played a key role in providing critical communications and network restoration services following many of the recent natural disasters including; September 11 th (2001) Asian tsunami (2004) Central Asian earthquake - which severed the SEA-ME-WE3 (2005) Hurricane Season in US - i.e. Katrina, Rita (2005) Taiwan Earthquake - which severed 6 major fiber-optic undersea cables (2006)

30. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Conclusion The health of this Nation’s technological infrastructure will depend heavily on our understanding of the space environment and our ability to predict hazardous space weather storms. Our ever-growing dependence on space-based technology will result in an increasing need for space weather services.

31. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology OFCM Thank You