1. The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years Later Gary Mauser, Ph D ANZSOC Conference Wellington, NZ February 2005

2. Gary Mauser Professor Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC Canada February 2005

3. ANZSOC 2005 Canada has long had strict firearms law 1880s - firearm permit required 1920s - anti-Bolshevick law 1934 - handguns registered 1967 - modern framework for law 1977 - FAC 1991 - Kim Campbell 1995 - Allan Rock

4. ANZSOC 2005 The 1991 Canadian Firearms Legislation (1991 through 1994) Registration/ban of semi-automatic military- style rifles, and high-capacity magazines, Increased FAC requirements: - firearm safety course, - 35-question application form, - passport-type photograph - two references (spouse required) - mandatory 28-day waiting period

5. ANZSOC 2005 In 1994 Canada Consulted with New Zealand The Canadians were advised that firearms registration –would be exceptionally difficult to achieve - with an acceptable error rate - at an acceptable cost - The results probably not worth the effort

6. ANZSOC 2005 The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation (1995 through 2003) Prohibition of over half of all registered handguns Stricter regulations Broadened police powers July 1998 - Registration of firearms begun January 2000 – Licensing of firearm owners begun January 1, 2001 – All firearm owners required to be licensed July 1, 2003 – All firearms required to be registered

7. ANZSOC 2005 Criteria for evaluation Reasonable cost Acceptable error rate High level of compliance Public support Effective in improving public safety

8. ANZSOC 2005 Cost estimates of owner licencing and universal firearm registration Original estimate in 1995$C 2 million AG partial estimate (DOJ)$C 1 billion To date for all agencies$C 2 billion Original estimate off by a factor of 1,000

9. ANZSOC 2005 Organizational problems Failure to understand project scope Failure to plan for inter-agency cooperation Information criteria differ across agencies Some participants opposed to firearm ownership in principle Failure to consult with owners, provinces, or Natives Government cover-up of costs

10. ANZSOC 2005 Data quality of firearm registry Over 5 million of the 7 million registered firearms are un-verified Error rate between 50% and 90% –Errors in description of firearm or owner Few criminal record checks of owners No information on location of registered rifles or shotguns No information on more than 170,000 people with firearm prohibition orders

11. ANZSOC 2005 Police do not trust the registry RCMP told Auditor General they do not trust the information (2004) Toronto Police Chief reports (2003) the system has not helped solve a single homicide Police Association of Ontario said they fail to get information requested 95% of the time (2002)

12. ANZSOC 2005 Public support for the firearm registry 77% of Canadian public agree that “the firearm registry should be scrapped.” –(JMCK Polling, N= 1,586, April 2004) 8 out of 10 provinces declined to cooperate with federal government in registry (2003) 6 out of 10 Provinces challenged the constitutionality of Firearms Act (2000)

13. ANZSOC 2005 Owner cooperation CFC actual CFC estimate Mauser estimate DOJ estimate (1995) Firearm owners2 M2.2 M3.5 - 4.5 M 7 + M Firearms7 M7.7 M12 - 13 M 25 + M

14. ANZSOC 2005 Participation rates Approximately 50% of firearm owners have complied Less than 25% of residents of First Nations communities have complied Approximately 50% of firearms stock is registered

15. Evaluation Do licencing and registration improve public safety?

16. ANZSOC 2005 Which measures are the most appropriate? Gun deaths Gun crime Gun violence Total violent crime Total homicide

17. ANZSOC 2005 How measure public safety? Gun death? –Gun deaths are falling in Canada –Gun homicides falling –Gun suicides falling Is it a success?

18. ANZSOC 2005 Trends in Canadian Gun Deaths Gun HomicideGun SuicideTotal 19912711,1081,379 19951769161,092 1998151818969 2001171651822

19. ANZSOC 2005 Canadian Suicide Trends Firearm Suicides Hanging Suicides Total Suicides 19911,1081,0343,593 19959161,3823,968 19988181,4343,698 20016511,5093,688

20. ANZSOC 2005 Gun Death is a Red Herring Gun deaths are largely suicides Suicide is not central to public safety Strong substitution effect The removal of firearms or sharps must balance liberty with personal safety

21. ANZSOC 2005 Trends in Canadian Suicide Rates

22. ANZSOC 2005 Trends in Suicide Rates in Australia

23. ANZSOC 2005 Social costs of the decline in gun ownership Hunters are the driving force behind conservation Hunters pay $70 million annually in licence fees Hunters donate $33 million annually for habitat and conservation projects Hunters spend almost half ($2.7 billion) on all expenditures on wildlife related activities Increased number of wildlife-vehicle collisions

24. ANZSOC 2005 How measure public safety? Gun crime? 47% of gun crime is permit violations Not a measure of violence, but regulatory enforcement

25. ANZSOC 2005 Gun Crime in Canada, 2003 NumberPercentage Illegal possession10,037 47% Other offensive weapon charge 4,510 21% Robbery with firearm 3,877 18% Firearm usage 2,256 11% Homicide with firearm 161 1% Discharge with intent 223 1% Trafficking 137 1% Total crimes with firearms21,201 100%

26. ANZSOC 2005 How measure public safety? Gun violence? Gun violence is small fraction of violent crime Not even the worst violence

27. ANZSOC 2005 Gun violence and violent crime Violent crime HomicideRobbery Australia1%14%6% England and Wales 1%9%4% Canada2%31%14%

28. ANZSOC 2005 Injuries caused by weapons during assault, Canada 2003 FirearmKnifeClub Major physical injuries6%11%14% Minor physical injuries40% 60% No injuries52%47%24% Unknown2% Number of incidents8125,7605,432

29. ANZSOC 2005 How measure public safety? Gun homicide? Gun homicides are only a fraction of total homicides Can reducing gun homicides reduce total homicide? Substitution effect is quite powerful

30. ANZSOC 2005 Homicide trends in Canada 19961998200020022003 Homicide rate2.12.01.81.91.7 % Firearm33%27%34%26%29%

31. ANZSOC 2005 Homicide trends in Australia 19961998200020022003 Homicide rate1.71.81.6 % Firearm33%17%19%13%

32. ANZSOC 2005 How should we measure improvements in public safety? Violent crime rates should drop Not just criminal violence involving guns, but all criminal violence should fall Homicide rates should fall Not just gun homicide, but total homicide

33. ANZSOC 2005 More appropriate measures of public safety Homicide rate Robbery rate Armed robbery rate Violent crime rate

34. ANZSOC 2005 Homicide Trends in Canada and USA

35. ANZSOC 2005 Gang Related Homicides in Canada

36. ANZSOC 2005 Violent Crime Trends in Canada and USA

37. ANZSOC 2005 Trends in Armed Robbery in Australia 1996199719981999200020022003 Armed Robberies 62569054108509452947478177162 % Firearm 25%24%18%15%14%15%16%

38. ANZSOC 2005 Violent Crime Trends in Australia and USA

39. ANZSOC 2005 Summary and Conclusion The 1995 Firearms Act is not a success –Incomplete coverage –Unacceptably high error rate –No evidence for effectiveness Firearms registry cost $2 billion -- other public safety measures under funded The registry has reduced firearms access but has not improved public safety

40. ANZSOC 2005 Suggested alternatives Improve monitoring of criminals on probation and parole Increase prison time for violent criminals Increase port security Increase number of police officers Tighten controls on deportation orders