1. Predicting our Climate Future
Human Activities and Lifestyles
Climate Change Model
Predicted climate changes (Precipitation, Temp. etc.)
GHG
Emissions
Social Science Oriented
Social influences
Human behavior
Affluence
Diet/food,
geography influences
Political aspects
Isolation/globalization
Economic drivers
Environmental regulations
Technology and its implementation
Energy efficiency
Alternative energy sources
Earth Science Oriented
Physics
Chemistry
Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric processes
Want to be able to predict changes in climate
Have great models for all of the physical and chemical processes on earth, including oceans and the atmosphere

2. Emission scenarios
Need to define GHG emission “scenarios” to project what our lives and activities will be for the next century.
What are the possible economic scenarios?
What changes will we have in our society?
How do these changes influence emissions?
Prepared by Susan E. Powers, Clarkson University, Potsdam NY for NASA GCCE grant.
Review basic modeling approach
Inputs  model  outputs
Inputs include initial conditions and temporal changes
Ocean salinity and temp
GHG concentrations
GHG emissions (variablility)
Vegetation
Need to really understand what future emissions might look like over the next hundred years
Need to predict energy use, especially fossil fuels, agriculture, cement production
Need therefore to predict the economy and how that might impact the economy (recall that the past couple of years CO2 emissions down, but largely related to lowered economic activity).
Need to also consider cultural and societal changes

3. IPCC SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Developed “stories” that would define the range of possible social systems that we may develop through the 21st century
Economic growth
Population growth
Technology development and adoption
Commitment to the environment
Globalization
Key attributes about our future that get integrated into the stories about our future

4. Scenarios have stayed same for several years to keep constant input to models
Key differences – regional vs global
Economically oriented vs environmentally oriented
 4 extreme choices for which scenarios have been developed and GHG emissions predicted

5. A: Economic Focus A1: Global, Economically Oriented
Population growth and decline
Technological advances applied globally
Equity in economic development among regions
Extensive fossil fuel use in A1FI scenario
Rapid technology development to reduce fossil fuels (A1T)
by 2100:
7 billion population
$550 trillion GDP
~970 ppm CO2 (A1FI), (720 ppm for A1B)
A2: Regional, Economically oriented
Population growth
Technological advances, resource consumption and cultural differences among regions
15 billion population
$250 trillion GDP
~850 ppm CO2
F.I – fuel intensive – we do not replace our current fossil fuels with alternative renewables.
A1T – technologically focused (CO2 conc lower than for A1FI)
A1B – balanced – in between A1FI and A1T

6. B: Environmental Focus
B1: Global, Environmentally oriented
global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability
no additional climate initiatives
service and information oriented economy
reductions in material intensity
clean and resource-efficient technologies
by 2100:
7 billion population
$350 trillion GDP
estimated 550 ppm CO2
B2: Regional, Environmentally oriented
local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability
economic equity within regions, but not between regions
less rapid and more diverse technological changes
global policies for climate change mitigation
10 billion population,
$250 trillion GDP
~600 PPM CO2

7. Emissions profiles for IPCC scenarios
Scenarios provide inputs to models
A1T and B1 – technology advancement and environmentally focus can both accomplish the same reductions in emissions.
Harder to meet goals with a regional focus

8. Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios
A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2
B1 best – global, env focus – but still will result in ~2 deg C (next slide)
Some of other scenarios predict T changes as high as 5 deg C.
These are average annual temperature. In some areas, especially northern hemisphere changes in temperature wil be even greater.
Much of this is because we already have so many GHGs in the atmosphere and they are long lived.

9. Climate Modeling Results for IPCC Scenarios
A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 B2

10. Model predictions

11. Different models predict different extents of climate changes, but the trends are consistent in terms of which scenario is better or worse

12. IPCC scenarios
2100

13. 350.org

14. IPCC scenarios

15. IPCC Data Visualization of IPCC climate model results