1. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Warren G. Abrahamson Biology Department Bucknell University

2. Threat: Impacts of  CO 2 CO 2 has increased ≈25% in 100 yrs. Atmospheric CO 2 Ice Core CO 2

3. Global Mean Temperatures: Rising Faster with Time Rising Faster with Time 100 0.07  0.02 50 0.13  0.03 Period Rate Years  C/decade United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007

4. Projected Patterns of Precipitation Change United Nations IPCC April 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/ Bluish = more precipitation to high latitudes Reddish = less precipitation to most low latitudes WinterSummer

5. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes 2.Population declines 3.More frequent & severe disturbances 4.Species shifts 5.Increases of invasive species 6.Impacts to agriculture/forestry

6. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes (Earlier spring activity) Birds nesting & laying eggs earlier Trees leafing out earlier Earlier flowering of plants (Ahola et al. 2008; Tombre et al. 2008; Husek and Adamik 2008; Both et al. 2006) (Bertin 2008; Thompson and Clark 2008; Menzel et al. 2006) Causing a mismatch between Peak of food availability & food needs for nestlings Both et al. 2006

7. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes 2.Population declines Adelie penguin populations declined by 1/3 over past 25 years (Antarctic sea ice habitat declining) Coral reefs declining (rising seawater temperatures) Cool-climate communities (e.g., spruce-fir aspen-birch) predicted to decline >90% in USA Phillip Dustan Decline of Carysfort Reef (Florida) Arthur Morris Alexander Bogolyubov (Botkin et al. 2007; Gullison et al. 2007) (Emmerson and Southwell 2008; Hinke et al. 2007) (Baker et al. 2008; Wilson et al. 2008)

8. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes 2.Population declines Tropical ecotherms narrower tolerance & live closer to physiological optima than high-latitude species Consequently, more vulnerable to climate thermal change (Tewksberry et al. 2008. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320: 1297-1297) Enyalioides palpebralis

9. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes 2.Population declines 3.More frequent & severe disturbances Sea level rise & enhanced storms Alter 25-80% of USA coastal wetlands Catastrophic impacts on low-lying countries (e.g., Bangladesh) Increased incidence of fire in xeric communities Lake Michigan Ludington Lighthouse Nov 2008

10. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes 2.Population declines 3.More frequent & severe disturbances 4.Species shifts

11. Comma Butterfly Shifts in Species Distributions due to Climate Change Netherlands Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency 2003

12. 12 Shift in Species Range Southern-most population of “gigantea” host race of Eurosta solidaginis ● 1999 ● 2003 W.G. Abrahamson, unpublished data Some Need It Cold Shifts in Species Distributions due to Climate Change Gall-inducing fly Eurosta solidaginis “gigantea” race gall Southern-most population moved 130 miles north moved 130 miles north X

13. Pygmy Skunk Distribution Shifts with Climate Change A Reserve to Protect Pygmy Skunk in 2000 Inadequate by 2050 Shifts in Species Distributions due to Climate Change Hannah et al. 2007

14. A Reserve to Protect Species in 1910 Inadequate before 2100 Shifts in Community Distributions due to Climate Change Climate change will cause shifts in species distributions & will impact ecological reserves Glacier National Park Est. 1910

15. Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles: >10% unable to survive >10% of species unable to survive warmer climates Extinctioncan’t migrate Extinction if they can’t migrate to new localities Habitat fragmentation slow or prevent Habitat fragmentation will slow or prevent migration Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008 Shifts in Distributions “Island” constrained species have nowhere to go – They face extirpation or extinction

16. Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles: Most impacted poor-dispersal species Most impacted: Limited-distribution, poor-dispersal species Advantage to Advantage to: easily dispersed species Widely distributed, easily dispersed species Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008 Shifts in Distributions Dries Buytaert

17. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes 2.Population declines 3.More frequent & severe disturbances 4.Species shifts 5.Increases of invasive species

18. Warmer conditions & elevated CO 2 levels may favor invasive species & outbreaks of pest species Invasive Species Asian-origin Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Asian-origin Japanese Honeysuckle ♀ ovipositing European/Asian-origin Gypsy Moth

19. Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing: 1.Phenology changes 2.Population declines 3.More frequent & severe disturbances 4.Species shifts 5.Increases of invasive species 6.Impacts to agriculture/forestry

20. Climate Change Could Devastate Crops Lobell et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319: 607-610. Examples: By 2030: Southern Africa could lose >30% of its main crop, maize Southern Asia could lose >10% of regional staples, including rice, millet & maize Production Impact (%) Crop Importance Red Red = More important Orange Orange = Important Yellow Yellow = Less important

21. Pennsylvania: Ag/Forestry Possible Impacts Union of Concerned Scientists, Oct 2008

22. Faced with Huge Challenges: To save biodiversity, need global action

23. Edward Abbey wrote… “…love of the wilderness is more than a hunger for what is always beyond reach; it is also an expression of loyalty to the earth which bore us and sustains us, the only home we shall ever know, the only paradise we ever need – if only we had the eyes to see.” from Desert Solitaire 1968`