1. 1 The Scale of a Sustainable Bioenergy Resource

2. 2

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4. 4

5. 5 2008 Corn Harvest Ethanol consumes 29% of the US corn harvest, but provides only 2% of US transportation energy

6. 6 (Johansson and Azar, Climatic Change, 2007)

7. 7 (Fargione et al., Science, 2008)

8. 1) Scale of the Resource 2) Crop Yields 3) Land Areas 4) Energy Conversion Pathways 8

9. 9

10. 10 1700 1710 1720 1) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE) 2) Exclude agriculture-to- forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1) 3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA) 4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands.

11. 11 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, ES&T, 2008)

12. 12 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, ES&T, 2008)

13. Field Trials Unplanned Experiments EBI Model Inter-comparison Top-Down Yields from Carbonyl Sulfide 13

14. (Tilman et al., Science, 2006; Schmer et al., PNAS, 2008) 14

15.  Native Grass Field Trials (DeBolt, University of Kentucky)  Abandoned Coal Mines and Secondary Forests (Fox, University of Kentucky) 15

16. An Unplanned Experiment… County: Logan, ND 16

17.  Comparison for field sites  Comparison for regional area estimates of marginal lands 17

18. 18

19.  Airborne Measurements (Blake, UC Irvine; Vay, NASA/Langley; Montzka NOAA/ESRL)  Regional Atmospheric Model (Carmichael, U Iowa)  Ecosystem Model (Collatz, NASA/GSFC) 19 (Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

20. 20 (Campbell et al., Science, 2008) Drawdown COS (ppt) Drawdown CO2 (ppm) TotalModel Components

21. County-Level Areas Tracking Current Expansion 21

22. County – County-level total crop area based on USDA data – 1850-1997, annual HYDE – 5 minute, based on state-level data – 1700-2000, decadal SAGE – 5 minute, based on state-level data – 1700-1992, decadal 22

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27. 0.1-1.0% 97% 30-40%92%80-90%75% 45-47% 20% 27

28. 28 a) Ethanolb) Bioelectricity (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

29. Corn Switchgrass 29 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

30. Corn Switchgrass 30 (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, In Review)

31.  Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant  Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles 31

32.  Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant  Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles Ethanol Bio- electric 32

33.  Bioelectricity: IGCC power plant  Ethanol: Hybrid vehicles Ethanol Bio- electric Bioelectricity averages 75% greater distance 33

34. 34

35. 35 Thank you! Elliott Campbell ecampbell3@ucmerced.edu tel: 209.631.9312 skype: elliott.campbell

36. Area to meet U.S. Transportation Demand 36