1. Mick McGuire Christina Henderson Kelly Ranae Giedd-James

2. Event Forecast Event ObservedMarginal Total YesHits (a) False Alarms (b)a+b NoMisses (c) Correct Neg. (d) c+d Marginal Totala+cb+d a+b+c+d =n Total

3. Event Forecast Event ObservedMarginal Total YesHits (a) False Alarms (b)a+b NoMisses (c) Correct Neg. (d)c+d Marginal Totala+cb+d a+b+c+d =n Total http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/wefor/staff/eee/verif/Finley/Finley_Tornados.html

6. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mirs/public/prods/reports/pdf/office_facility/10-507_cwfa_counties(cr).pdf

7. Past storm reports http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

8. Past storm reports http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/ % DAYS SWX MJJA 2004-2008

10. % PCPN SWX MJJA 2004-2008

14. *

15. POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % % % %

16. POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses) ____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur % % % % % % % % % % %

17. FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms)

18. ____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms

19. There was a ___% improvement in forecast accuracy when compared to random chance

20. POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses) ____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur % % % % % % % % % % % % %

21. POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses) % % % % % % % % % %

22. FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms) ____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms

23. FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms) ____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms

24. POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses) ____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur % % % % % % % % % %

25. POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses) ____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur % % % % % % % % % % % %

26. POD = Hits / (Hits + Misses) ____ of the events that occurred were predicted to occur % % % % % % % %

27. FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms) ____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms

28. FAR = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms) ____ of the forecasts for swx turned out to be false alarms

29. There was a ___% improvement in forecast accuracy when compared to random chance