1. Regional Climate Model Results for Climate Impacts Applications Eric Salathé Science & Technology Program, UW Bothell Climate Impacts Group, UW Seattle Alan Hamlet (UW), Neil Banas (UW), Brian Lamb (WSU)

2. Regional climate change scenarios “Downscale” global scenarios to add local details There is a hierarchy of methods depending on the details needed More sophisticated methods can expand the class of impacts problems we can consider Should downscaling change the large-scale trends from the global model?

3. Climate Impacts Group 2009, WA Assessment, Ch. 1 http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml Figure shows change compared with 1970 -1999 average Composite IPCC AR 4 Simulations for the Pacific Northwest A1B Medium High B1 Low JanJul Delta Method: Simplest Climate Change Scenarios

4. Application of Delta Method: Change in Long-Term Mean April 1 Snowpack

5. Snohomish River Near Monroe, WA Regional Climate Model 12-km WRF

8. Multi-scale and Ensemble Modeling of Global Change and Air Quality

9. Summer Temperature Differences from 1990s to 2050s Change in T (°C) PCM-MM5 A2 ECHAM5-WRF3 A1B ECHAM5-WRF2 A1B CCSM3-WRF2 A1B CCSM3-WRF2 A2

10. Summer Mixed-layer Depth Differences from 1990s to 2050s Change in PBL (m)

11. A1B_Base – Current Decade Average Daily 8-hr Maximum O 3 June through August Several ppb increase in O 3 throughout most of the country Slight decrease in O 3 along west and east coastal zones

12. Linking Climate, Ocean, Biology NOAA ECOHAB Steph Moore, NOAA NWFSC Eric Salathé, UW Bothell Cheryl Greengrove, UW Tacoma Neil Banas, UW APL Nate Mantua, UW Fish Alexandrium Catenella

13. Delta Method: Future HAB projections The “Window of Opportunity” for Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB-WOO) Projected to become more frequent and last longer Moore, Mantua and Salathe, 2011

14. Projected changes in summertime along-shore winds Stronger northerly winds -> more upwelling

16. Conclusions Different approaches are needed for different applications What information can we get from climate models? What is left out that we need to know How can we add that information?