2. Greenhouse Effect from Carbon Neutral: http://www.carbonneutral.com.au/climatechangediagram.htmhttp://www.carbonneutral.com.au/climatechangediagram.htm

3. Human Causes of Climate Change UNEP: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate-change-global-processes-and-effects1http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate-change-global-processes-and-effects1

4. 2009 State of the Climate Report US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/2009/bams-sotc-2009-brochure-hi- rez.pdf

5. 2009 State of the Climate Report

8. A comprehensive review of key climate indicators confirms the world is warming and the past decade was the warmest on record. More than 300 scientists from 48 countries analyzed data on 37 climate indicators, including sea ice, glaciers and air temperatures. A more detailed review of 10 of these indicators, selected because they are clearly and directly related to surface temperatures, all tell the same story: global warming is undeniable. 2009 State of the Climate Report In Summary:

9. Thompson Reuters Humanitarian Alert Net http://www.alertnet.org/db/an_art/60167/2010/02/3-161204-1.htm What does it mean? Long Term Changes

10. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8629379.stm

11. http://www.scidev.net/en/news/climate-change-threatens-important- mangroves.html

12. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/aug/09/weather-hampers-pakistan- flood-relief What does it mean? Extreme Events

13. What we can say is that global warming has an effect on the probability and intensity of extreme events. This is true for precipitation as well as temperature, because the amount of water vapour that the air carries is a strong function of temperature. So the frequency of extremely heavy rain and floods increases as global warming increases. But at times and places of drought, global warming can increase the extremity of temperature and associated events such as forest fires. Dr James Hansen: What Climate Change Looks Like... So Far http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100813_WhatGlobalWarmingLooksL ike.pdf Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

14. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/interactive/2009/dec/02/world-climate- anomalies-map http://www.unep.org/pdf/ccScienceCompendium2009/cc_ScienceCompendium2009_ full_en.pdf

15. The consequences of climate change are already unfolding. We are “locked in” to further increases in temperature and related impacts. These two factors influence next steps. In Summary:

16. Climate Change and Conflict Climate change impacts water, agriculture, health; leads to urbanization, migration. These impacts will create conflict. Resolution of conflict depends on governance/local resilience/adaptive capacity. Poor governance – greater chance of instability and violence. Summarized from A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War International Alert, November 2007 http://www.international-alert.org/climate_change/index.php

17. Some examples: Mali vs. Chad: different response to long term drought Haiti versus Dominican Republic: response to extreme storms British Columbia – Pine Beetle – Fires – Institutional Response/Regional Cooperation Many factors involved – how do governments react? See Climate of Conflict

18. Key country factors in climate –conflict resolution: Political stability Economic strength Food security Existing pressures from migration/urbanization Consequences of failure to adapt: Malnutrition, starvation, violence, migration From Climate of Conflict

19. Responding to climate change and avoiding conflict: key points Adaptation as primary focus in LDC’s, NOT mitigation (climate change will happen) Build strong communities and institutions to increase local resilience and security Pursue adaptations based on local strengths AND climate science (know local impacts of long term trends) Regional interdependence, international cooperation and support will also be important From Climate of Conflict

23. Where do you fit in?

24. A: States facing a high risk of armed conflict as a knock-on consequence of climate change: 11. Colombia 23. Indonesia 34. Philippines 36. Senegal 41. Sri Lanka B: States facing a high risk of political instability as a knock-on consequence of climate change: 4. Belarus 5. Brazil 21. Jamaica 23. Kenya 32. Mexico 52. Ukraine From Climate of Conflict (International Alert) Conflict: current or recent war, poverty and inequality, bad governance, corruption, arbitrary authority, poor systems of justice, weak institutions Instability: arbitrary rule, transition from dictatorship or war, under development, lack of technical capacity

25. Source: World Bank Environment Department June 2009 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ENVIRONMENT/Resources/ESW_EcosystemBasedApp.pdf

27. Summary The countries least responsible for the problem will bear the greatest impact. Issue of global justice, calls for international cooperation and support for adaptation – not just aid in time of crisis. World wide benefits: peace, security, stability, sustainable development.

28. Other Resources UNEP Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 http://www.unep.org/compendium2009/ (latest science background)http://www.unep.org/compendium2009/ Climate Action Network http://www.climatenetwork.org/ (networking-NGO’s)http://www.climatenetwork.org/ Small Island Developing States Network (networking -- Jamaica) http://www.sidsnet.org/1f.htmlhttp://www.sidsnet.org/1f.html Facebook: Christina Ora, Solomon Islands (networking -- activist) Oxfam http://www.oxfam.org/en/climatechange (adaptation -- what works; DRR example, Kenya)http://www.oxfam.org/en/climatechange UNFCC National Adaptation Programme of Action (national strategies: Senegal, Tanzania) http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/ 4585.php http://unfccc.int/cooperation_support/least_developed_countries_portal/submitted_napas/items/ 4585.php UNFCC Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptations in Developing Countries http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf (regional details, adaptation strategies) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/impacts.pdf World Bank http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/regions (Market based solutions for G-77)http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/regions International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (IPCC WG II) (international framework, tools) http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climate-change/climate-change.html http://www.unisdr.org/eng/risk-reduction/climate-change/climate-change.html International Alert: Climate Change, Conflict and Fragility (2009) http://www.international- alert.org/pdf/Climate_change_conflict_and_fragility_Nov09.pdf (adaptation issues and approaches, Philippines example)http://www.international- alert.org/pdf/Climate_change_conflict_and_fragility_Nov09.pdf

29. emissions (1000 Tonnes)% world totalpopulationtonnes per capitaGDP per capita Argentina183,728.000.6340,518,9514.5343720777,726 Belarus66,802.000.239,471,9007.0526504715,166 Brazil368,317.001.26193,390,0001.9045297078,220 Canada557,340.001.934,212,00016.2907751739,669 China6,538,367.0022.31,339,270,0004.8820379763,678 Colombia63,439.000.2245,576,0001.391938745,087 Hong Kong39,963.000.147,026,4005.68754981229,826 Indonesia397,143.001.35234,180,0001.6958877792,329 Jamaica13,964.000.052,730,0005.1150183154,390 Kenya11,236.000.0440,863,0000.274967575912 Mexico471,459.001.61108,396,2114.3494047968,135 Philippines70,916.000.2494,013,2000.7543196061,746 Senegal5,478.000.0212,861,0000.425938885994 Sri Lanka12,314.000.0420,410,0000.60333172,041 Tanzania6,043.000.0245,040,0000.134169627551 Ukraine317,537.001.0845,871,7386.9222796832,542 USA5,838,381.0019.91310,020,00018.8322721146,381 2007 emissions data collected by CDIAC for UNFCC CO2 emissions only from burning of fossil fuels and cement production -- not things like deforestation, etc. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions Population: national estimates or 2010 estimates from UN Dept of Econ and Social Affairs http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population#List GDP: IMF, 2009 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita Background data and sources