1. A Study on Convective Modes Associated with Tornadoes in Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania Timothy W. Humphrey 1 Michael Evans 2 1 Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany State University of New York, Albany, New York 2 NOAA/NWS, Weather Forecast Office, Binghamton, New York

2. Outline Motivation Climatology Storm Environments Null Events Radar Study Conclusions

3. Motivation Enhance knowledge of tornado environments Improve forecasting and warning of tornadoes Communicate tornado risk

4. Climatology 52 Tornadoes January 2000 – May 2011

7. 7 Supercell QLCS Multicell Cellular 24 Jun 2004 28 Apr 2011 29 Jul 2006 17 May 2008

8. Tornadoes by Convective Mode 2000 - 2011 (28) (16) (5) (3) N = 52

9. Storm Environment Synoptic environment (2000 – 2011) – NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Mesoscale environment (2005 – 2011) – Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Mesoanalysis Archive

10. 10 Supercell 300 hPa Height (m) and Anomaly (m) N =

11. 11 QLCS 300hPa Height (m) and Anomaly (m)

12. Mesoscale Environment SPC Mesoanalysis Archive (2005-2011) 36 Tornado Events 19 Thermodynamic, Shear, & Composite Parameters

16. Null Events Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) Cow Application Identified unverified Tornado warnings (2005-2011) 21 Null Events

18. Radar Study Rotational Velocity (Vr) Shear Spectrum Width Normalized Rotation (NROT)

19. Supercells QLCSs Rotation “spins down” to the surface Uniform horizontal shear in lowest elevation angles Low level rotation: ~20 min Rotation “spins up” from surface Spikes in horizontal shear in lowest elevation angles Low level rotation: ~12 min

20. Supercell Rotational Velocity (Vr)

21. QLCS Rotational Velocity (Vr)

22. Supercell/QLCS Vr

23. Conclusions Majority of tornadoes associated with supercells Supercell tornadoes appeared dependent on low level helicity and bulk shear QLCSs had little difference in mesoscale conditions Low level helicity a potential discriminator between verified and null events

24. Acknowledgments: Hollings Scholarship Program Michael Evans NWS Binghamton Staff Brook Taber, NWS Burlington

25. References: Thompson, R.L., R Edwards, J.A. Hart, K.L. Elmore, and P. Markowski, 2003: Close proximity soundings within supercell environments obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1243-1261. Trapp, R.J., S. A. Tessendorf, E. S. Godfrey, and H. E. Brooks, 2005: Tornadoes from squall lines and bow echoes. Part I: Climatological distribution. Wea. Forecasting, 20, 23–34. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/research.shtml

26. Questions? thumphrey@albany.edu