2. Goal – To predict violent nonsexual crimes in the city of St. Louis for 2011. Specifically Unlawful Murders Scope – Murders, Aggravated Assaults and Robberies for The city of St. Louis Year 2011 Project Overview

3. Predictors and Methods Used Predictors St. Louis city crime data for years 2005 – 2010 US Census data for year 2000 Abandoned Building data for years 2005-2010 Methods Regression Averaging Quantitative Mapping Predictors and Methods Used

4. 0 To.67Green.67 To 2.17Yellow 2.18 To 4.5Orange 4.6 To 9Red Avg Murders for Years 2005-2010 Avg Robberies for Years 2005- 2010 1 To 20Green 21 To 39Yellow 40 To 78Orange 79+Red

5. Avg Murders for Years 2005-2010 0 To.67 Green.67 To 2.17 Yellow 2.18 To 4.5 Orange 4.6 To 9 Red Avg Agg Assaults for Years 2005- 2010 1 To 29Green 30 To 55Yellow 56 To 100Orange 101+Red

6. 1 To 17Green 18 To 78Yellow 82 To 248Orange 300+Red Avg Abandoned Buildings for Years 2005-2010 0 To.67Green.67 To 2.17Yellow 2.18 To 4.5Orange 4.6 To 9Red Avg Murders for Years 2005-2010

7. Predictors and Methods Used Correlation Factors Considered

8. The Regression Equation # of Murders = -0.208+0.033(Agg Assult)+0.00614(Abn Bld) -0.00758(Robbery)+0.00614(Unemp%) R = 77% R 2 = 78% which means there is a 78% change in murders due to our predictors – Robberies and Assaults Weighted by Year.5 for 2010.3 for 2009.2 for 2008 – Abandoned Buildings from 2010 – Unemployment from Census Data

12. 2011 Murder Map This Map Represents 147 Murders 0 To 1.03Green 1.04 To2.19Yellow 2.20 To 4.38Orange 4.39 To 8.34Red Past Years Murder Totals: 2010 - 143 2009 - 142 2008 - 162 2007 - 134 2006 - 125 2005 - 129

13. Neighborhood3 Yr Weighted Avg6 Yr AvgPrediction Academy333 Baden765 Benton Park011 Benton Park West333 Bevo Mill012 Botanical Heights111 Boulevard Heights000 Carondelet222 Carr Square122 Central West End211 Cheltenham100 Clayton-Tamm100 Clifton Heights000 College Hill444 Columbus Square112 Compton Heights000 Covenant-Blu/Grand Ctr112 DeBaliviere Place000 Downtown222 Murders By Neighborhood

14. Neighborhood3 Yr Weighted Avg6 Yr AvgPrediction Downtown West322 Dutchtown546 Ellendale000 Fairground643 Forest Park SE012 Fountain Park122 Fox Park111 Franz Park000 Gravois Park334 Hamilton Heights453 Hi-Point000 Holly Hills100 Hyde Park554 Jeff Vanderlou987 Kings Oak000 Kingsway East344 Kingsway West643 La Salle110 Lafayette Square000 Murders By Neighborhood

15. Neighborhood3 Yr Weighted Avg6 Yr AvgPrediction Lewis Place122 Lindenwood Park000 Marine Villa112 Mark Twain764 Mark Twain I-70 Ind.322 McKinley Heights011 Midtown112 Mount Pleasant111 Near N. Riverfront212 North Hampton000 North Point421 North Riverfront000 O'Fallon676 Old North St. Louis322 Patch111 Peabody-Darst-Webbe111 Penrose555 Princeton Heights100 Riverview000 Murders By Neighborhood

16. Neighborhood3 Yr Weighted Avg6 Yr AvgPrediction Shaw000 Skinker-DeBaliviere000 Soulard000 South Hampton000 Southwest Garden001 St. Louis Hills100 St. Louis Place322 The Gate District111 The Greater Ville568 The Hill000 The Ville333 Tiffany110 Tower Grove East111 Tower Grove South222 Vandeventer322 Visitation Park000 Walnut Park East354 Walnut Park West253 Wells-Goodfellow897 Murders By Neighborhood

17. Neighborhood3 Yr Weighted Avg6 Yr AvgPrediction West End544 Wydown-Skinker000 Murders By Neighborhood

18. Data Sources St. Louis Metro police dept http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html http://www.slmpd.org/crime_stats.html St. Louis City Interactive Mapping http://stlcin.missouri.org/mapportal/ Geo St. Louis http://stlcin.missouri.org/citydata/newdesign/ statsselector.cfm?type=data&geo=neigh