1. New Frontiers for the Nongmingong: China’s Landscape of Intra-Provincial Labor Migration Doug Shultz Geography and Economics Advisors: Professors Anne Knowles and Will Pyle

2. The story Migrant conditions – Unofficial residence status – Denied access to many social services, resources – Discrimination – Rural to urban capital flows Urbanization in China – Cultural Revolution Hukou System established – Open Up and Reform policies Development of the nongmingong – Western Development Emergence of intra-provincial migration model – 2008 Global Economic Crisis Westward movement of industry and labor Strengthening intra-provincial migration

3. The questions We know intra-provincial migration is increasing, so: – Who? – Where? – WHY? – How can this knowledge inform migration reform?

4. How can we understand it? Data – Chinese Household Income Project Survey (CHIPS), 2002 Geographic Analysis – Distance – Regionalization – Spatial relationships – Visualization Econometric Analysis – Intra- and inter-provincial migration models – Compensation models – Attitude models

5. What do we find? Compensation Variables – Income – Pension – Medical insurance – Unemployment insurance – Housing Inter-provincial vs. Intra- provincial Models – Compensation – Time – Family ties – Property ownership

6. Study area

7. Intra-provincial migration rates

8. Income levels

9. Provision of pension fund

10. Provision of medical insurance

11. Provision of unemployment insurance

12. Provision of housing

13. Average family size

14. Average age of migrant

15. Conclusions Pull factors – NOT pension, medical insurance, unemployment insurance – Housing Push factors – Family size tends to be lower – Migrants tend to be younger

16. Migration model LPMs Destination cities – Baseline is Beijing—no model 2 type migration Province where hukou is registered Males more likely to be in model 2 than model 1 Minorities are 5.5% less likely CP members are 10.2% less likely Less likely if you have finished high, junior high, or elementary school. No significant effect of college. 1 year more in urban area, 3.7% less likely; 1more year with current employer, 1.3% less likely More likely if you are healthy Commercial workers and service workers are more likely

17. Now what? Further research and analysis – Additional controls Average provincial economic conditions Legacy controls Macro flows from the Chinese Census – More robust geographic analysis Network analysis Distance measurements Toward the real world…

18. Why is this important? Chinese migration policy China’s sustainability – Environmental – Economic Global economy Socialism vs. Capitalism