1. May 19 th, 2010 Risk-Based Community Assistance Visit Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies Bret Gates, FEMA Susan Phelps, AECOM ASFPM 2010 Annual Conference

2. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies Agenda Goals and Objectives GIS Risk Analyses Results and Path Forward 2

3. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies Goals and Objectives Community Assistance Visits (CAV)  Assesses Community implementation of their floodplain management program  Provide education and technical assistance to communities across the nation  Typically includes: Exploration of floodplain Permit file inspection Meetings with elected, appointed officials 3

4. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies Goals and Objectives Cost-effective method needed to help identify and prioritize communities with greatest need for CAV and/or at greatest risk  Utilize Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methodology to link community datasets and develop risk factors  Generate CAV community rankings within each state and US territory 4

5. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis Task 1: Collaborative meeting b/w FEMA and AECOM  Discussed key Risk-based indicators that CAV needed Growth Policies, claims Known/suspected problems  Reviewed data available for analysis  Identified potential risk factors 5

6. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis Task 2: Perform GIS analysis to combine risk factor data at community level  Framework data Census Block Groups (CBGs) FEMA Communities  Geospatial, tabular data (risk factors) linked to framework data by Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code or Community ID 6

7. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies7 Census Block Groups Areas of evenly distributed population within a county  Approx. 212,000 nationwide Most contain b/w 600 - 3,000 people Demographic data (population, number of housing units) provided at CBG level

8. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies8 FEMA Communities Vary in size Approx. 29,000 nationwide History of participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), insurance claims and policies, 1% floodplain areas provided at this level

9. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis 9 DRAFT RISK FACTORS FOR CAV ANALYSIS 1.Square mile area of community7.Policies 2.Federally-declared disasters8.Repetitive loss claims 3.MapMod county risk decile9.Substantial damage claims 4.2009 projected population10.Claims outside the 1% floodplain 5.Population growth 1980 – 200911.Housing units within the 1% floodplain 6.Population growth 2009 – 201912.Participation in the NFIP

10. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis 10 HAZARD - Flood Zones -Federally-Declared Disasters EXPOSURE -Population -Population Growth -Housing Units within 1% Floodplain -MapMod Risk Deciles -Policies -Participation in NFIP VULNERABILITY -Community Area -Repetitive Loss Claims -Substantial Damage Claims -Claims outside the 1% Floodplain Risk is function of Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure

11. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis Community level data  Square mile area  Flood zones  Policies  Claims  Repetitive loss claims  Substantial damage claims  Participation in NFIP 11

12. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies12 National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL)

13. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies13 National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) - FL

14. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies14 Policies in US and Territories

15. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies15 Claims in US and Territories

16. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis CBG/County level data  Population  Population growth  Housing units  Federally-declared disasters  MapMod county risk decile 16

17. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies17 Federally-Declared Disasters by County

18. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies18 MapMod Risk Deciles by County

19. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis Split Out by State Plane Zones Re- Project Clean and QC Union (Overlay) GIS Layers Calculate Square Mile Areas Convert to Database Tables and Merge Summarize Flood Zones By CBG/COMM CBG, FEMA Communities, Flood Zones

20. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis Clean and QC Convert to Feature Class Split Out by State Plane Zones Re-Project Identity (Overlay) with CBG/COMM/ Flood Zones Convert to Database Tables and Merge Summarize By CBG/ COMM/ Flood Zone Append tabular data to CBG/COMM/ Flood Zone/ FIA table Final Spreadsheet with Flood Zones, Insurance, Demographic Data by CBG/COMM FIA Claims, Policies, Repetitive Losses

21. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis Task 3: Perform risk calculations in spreadsheet  CBG, County data broken down to Community level 1.Find % of CBG or county area within community Ex: CBG area is 1,000; square mile area of community within CBG is 100; 100/1000 = 10% 2.Apply % to risk factor data at CBG level (e.g. housing units) Ex: 10% of community is within a CBG; 500 housing units total within CBG 500 x 10% = 50 housing units in portion of the community within that CBG 3.Add results for each CBG to get total # of housing units in community 21

22. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies GIS Risk Analysis Task 3: Perform risk calculations in spreadsheet  Same methodology used to determine % of community inside/outside 1% floodplain 1.Find % of community inside/outside 1% floodplain 2.Apply % to risk factor data (e.g. claims) to get total # of claims outside of 1% floodplain in community  Calculations assume even distribution of population, housing units, etc. within CBG, flood zones 22

23. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies23 Projected Population Growth by Community

24. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies Results COMMUNITY ID FACTOR 1 – COMM. AREA FACTOR 2 – POLICIES FACTOR 3 – REP. LOSSES FACTOR 4 – DISASTERS FACTOR 5 – MAPMOD RISK DECILE FACTOR 6 – SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE CLAIMS FACTOR 7 – CLAIMS OUTSIDE 1% FLOODPLAIN FACTOR 8 – STRUCTURES W/IN 1% FLOODPLAIN FACTOR 9 – 2009 PROJ. POP. FACTOR 1O – POP. GROWTH 1980 – 2009 FACTOR 11 – POP.GROWTH 2009 – 2019 FACTOR 12 – PARTIC. IN NFIP? NATIONAL RISK % NATIONAL RISK RANKING NATIONAL RISK DECILE STATE RISK RANKING 0100010.000% 0.003% 0.000% 0.001%25652 9506 0100020.001%0.003%0.001%0.003% 0.001%0.002%0.004%0.008%0.018%0.008%0.000%0.004%3125 253 0100030.000% 0.004%0.003%0.000% 0.013%0.002%11875 5251 0100040.000% 0.001%0.007%0.001%0.000%0.003%0.000%0.002%0.004%0.000% 0.001%14701 6290 0100050.000%0.007%0.009%0.007%0.001%0.000%0.013%0.004%0.005%0.010%0.001%0.000%0.005%2814 141 0100060.000%0.010%0.044%0.007%0.001%0.007%0.049%0.001%0.003%0.006%0.002%0.000%0.011%1185 119 0100070.000%0.007%0.013%0.007%0.001% 0.023%0.000%0.002%0.004%0.006%0.000%0.005%2488 138 0100080.000% 0.004%0.003%0.000% 0.013%0.002%12297 5258 0100090.000% 0.001%0.007%0.001%0.000%0.002%0.000% 0.001%19319 7355 0100100.000% 0.007%0.001% 0.000% 0.001%21548 8408 24

25. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies Path Forward Additional risk factors needed?  Input from states, FEMA Regions  If so, revise risk analysis and verify results Provide results to FEMA Regions & States  Spreadsheet  GIS database  Maps showing community rankings Updates to datasets  Frequency  Methodology 25

26. Risk-Based CAV Prioritization Using GIS Methodologies26 Questions? bret.gates@dhs.gov susan.phelps@aecom.com