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Common Stock Investing Appendix B, Part VI Are Stock Market Indices and Stock Prices Leading Economic Indicators? Is this Information Useful?

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Presentation on theme: "Common Stock Investing Appendix B, Part VI Are Stock Market Indices and Stock Prices Leading Economic Indicators? Is this Information Useful?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Common Stock Investing Appendix B, Part VI Are Stock Market Indices and Stock Prices Leading Economic Indicators? Is this Information Useful?

2 Here’s what you get when buying Stock Committee on Uniform Securities Identification Procedures OWNERSHIP IS FREELY TRANSFERABLE

3 How are Stock Prices reported? The Dow 30 Largest and Most Widely Held Public Companies Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Large-Cap (>$3B) Companies traded on NASDAQ and NYSE National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations 3,000 US/Foreign Growth/Technology Stocks

4 Why is a Stock’s Price (Value?) what it is? EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS Stock Prices “Reflect All Publically- Available Information” Theory: “Prices are Never Under- or Over-Valued” CAN’T BEAT MARKET

5 Isn’t it all about “Interpreting” Information? How does Information effect a Firm, its Industry and the Economy? "I'd be a bum in the street with a tin cup if the markets were efficient." "I'd be a bum in the street with a tin cup if the markets were efficient."

6 RISK RISK (effects Value) CA $ H If, When and How Much CA $ H EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN Risk Aversion (%) What’s the VALUE of an Asset (Stock)? Future CA $ H to be Received while Owning Asset  For Stockholders = Company’s Future Net Income Future CA $ H to be Received while Owning Asset  For Stockholders = Company’s Future Net Income

7 Net Income (EPS) Expected Rate of Return Expected Rate of Return = Value * How much Less? Factor in Margin-of-Safety (Contingency ) Compare Your Value to Market’s Price If Price less* than Value, then Buy

8 Risk-Free Rate of Return (2 Yr. Treasury) + Systematic Risk (Inflation – CPI Change) + Equity Risk Premium (Firm Specific Risk) Total = Rate that Compensates for All Ownership Risks If Expected Rate of Return measures Risk, How to Calculate it?

9 How is a Stock’s Price reported? ttm = Twelve Trailing Months S EPS = Earnings (Net Income) Per Share $70 to $90 = 29% Gain Don’t Forget Cash Dividends


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