1. Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors K EVIN S. M C K ELVEY 1, J EFFREY P. C OPELAND 1, M ICHAEL K. S CHWARTZ 1, J EREMY S. L ITTELL 2, K EITH B. A UBRY 3, J OHN R. S QUIRES 1, S EAN A. P ARKS 1, M ARKETA M. E LSNER 2, G UILLAUME S. M AUGER 2 1 USFS, RMRS, Missoula MT, 2 Climate Impacts Group, U. Washington, 3 USFS,PNW, Olympia WA. Eco. Apps, available in preprint

2. Historical Wolverine Locations (1827 to 1960) Aubry et al. 2007

3. Late May in northwestern Alaska Wolverine Reproductive Dens Weaning late April to early May requires snow Magoun and Copeland (1998) 5 females, 15 dens

4. All wolverine dens with high quality spatial coordinates U.S. Canada Scandinavia High resolution snow coverage MODIS (daily, 0.5km, worldwide) 7 yrs data Chose May 15 as date for weaning Persistent snow cover through May 15 Copeland, J.P., et al. 2010. The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine: Do climatic constraints limit their geographic distribution? Canadian Journal of Zoology 88:233-246.

5. Scandinavia From: Copeland et al. 2010

6. Stats for dens North America 562 dens 65 North America 327 Norway 160 Sweden 10 Finland 550 (97.9%) were in snow pixels ALL were snow dens Majority in pixels covered 5+ years From: Copeland et al. 2010

7. Notable misses: Quebec (extirpated) Southern Rockies (extirpated) Southern Scandinavia (recolonizing) Range matches snow Range map: Jokkmokk SE, 2005 From: Copeland et al. 2010

8. 89% of locations, all ages, both sexes, all seasons Pattern stronger in summer in all study areas From: Copeland et al. 2010

9. Dispersal analysis based on resistance modeling

10. Greater Yellowstone area From: Copeland et al. 2010

11. Schwartz et al. 2009. Wolverine gene flow across a narrow climatic niche. Ecology 90: 3222-3232. Straight path

12. Greater Yellowstone area From: Copeland et al. 2010 Genetic models indicate high preference for movement within snow-defined areas

13. Montana Idaho Greater Yellowstone Area, WY From: Schwartz et al. 2009

14. Conclusions: Wolverine are an organism adapted to the “Hudsonian” zone Historical range Den requirements Worldwide current range Habitat use patterns Dispersal patterns Areas with persistent snow cover through May 15 provides effective proxy for habitat requirements Past, Present---Future?

15. 10 IPCC AR4 models screened for regional skill Average, cool (pcm1), hot (miroc 3.2) 2030-2059, 2070-2099 Historical reconstruction A1B emission scenario Delta downscaling to 1/16 deg VIC to generate spring snowpack Best fit crosswalk to May 15 MODIS data http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/ Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_ USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf

16. Resample to 0.5km; 93.7% correct classification Historical downscaled VICMay 15 MODIS (Copeland et al. 2010) From : McKelvey et al. 2011

17. Historical2030-2059 Average 2070-2099 Average 67% retained 37% retained From : McKelvey et al. 2011

18. Hot Average Cool 2070-2099 From : McKelvey et al. 2011

19. Historical2030-20592070-2099 From : McKelvey et al. 2011

20. Snow polygons > 1000 km 2 2070-2099 Average From : McKelvey et al. 2011

21. Sierra Nevada (Tahoe area)