1. ON IT Utilization of a High Resolution Weather and Impact Model to Predict Hurricane Irene Northeast Regional Operations Workshop 2011 Albany, NY Brandon Hertell Lloyd Treinish, Anthony Priano, Hongfei Li, James Cipriani IBM – Thomas J. Watson Research Center

2. ON IT Overview Con Edison, Inc. Service Territory 3.2 million electric customers 1.0 million gas customers 1,800 steam customers 709 MW of regulated generation Con Edison Co. of New York 300,000 electric customers 127,000 gas customers Orange and Rockland 2 2

3. ON IT Overview Weather Model Utilize WRF-ARW – 2km resolution forecast – Assimilate additional weather data – 24hr/84hr forecast  2x daily (0z,12z) – Temp, wind, wet bulb, precip – Content available via web browser – Email alert system Model Domain 2 km 6 km 18 km 3

4. ON IT Overview Impact Model Westchester Substation Map Westchester County overhead electric Post-Process of weather model Output # of jobs per substation Quantifies uncertainty Email alert system Predictive & Nowcast “mode” 4

5. ON IT Deep Thunder Weather Model Forecast Overview Impact Model 5 Impact Model Historical Damage Data Historical Weather Data Calibrated Weather Model Gust Calculation Model Training PredictiveNowCast Real Time Observations Model Design Predictive vs. Nowcast

6. ON IT Overview Tropical Storm Irene Land fall over NYC as a Tropical Storm Long duration by hurricane standards (18+ hours) Sustained winds 20-50mph Wind gusts 40-70mph Tornado in Queens Rainfall 5-10” (12” north NYC) 187,800 customers affected 6

7. ON IT Results 89869872226206911271790 7 Friday 26th Saturday 27th 0z 12z0z 12z Predictive Nowcast Actual Sunday 28th Predicted jobs vs. actual jobs

8. ON IT Results 8

9. ON IT Results Friday – 0z Sustained WindMax. Daily Gust MPH 9

10. ON IT Results Friday – 0z Number of Jobs Probability 10

11. ON IT Results Friday – 12z Sustained WindMax. Daily Gust MPH 11

12. ON IT Results Friday – 12z Number of Jobs Probability 12

13. ON IT Results 13

14. ON IT Results Saturday – 0z Sustained WindMax. Daily Gust 14 MPH

15. ON IT Results Saturday – 0z Number of Jobs Probability 15

16. ON IT Results Nowcast Number of JobsProbability Nowcast used to check model assumptions – In this case may not be a good check on model accuracy – Dependant on good actual wind data inputs 16

17. ON IT Results Observations 00hrs 28 th 00hrs 29 th AWS wind seem low 17

18. ON IT Results Observations 00hrs 28 th 00hrs 29 th Gusts more reasonable 18

19. ON IT Summary Impact forecast was close to actual Forecasts can have large variances Few large scale events in database Observational data quality check Study other cases to check wind accuracy 19

20. ON IT Questions? Brandon Hertell Meteorologist ConEdison Emergency Management hertellb@coned.com 212-460-3129 20