1. Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) 1 Near uniform spatial resolution of approximately 10 km. Coverage up to 52 deg latitude. 70-90% flash detection day and night over the Americas and adjacent ocean regions. < 20 sec product latency Provides additional information about TC intensity changes and of severe weather events. LIS/OTD Combined Lightning 1997-2005 GLM detects total strikes: in cloud, cloud to cloud, and cloud to ground

2. 2011 NHC Proving Ground Products Rapid Intensification Index (RII) Mark DeMaria / John Knaff 2

3. 3 Lightning-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index (RII) Ground-based lightning data used as a proxy for GOES-R GLM NHC real-time rapid intensification index (RII) – Input from GFS model, GOES imagery, oceanic heat content analyses, Reynolds SST, persistence – Discriminant analysis provides probability of max wind increase of at least 30 kt in 24 hr Experimental version adds lightning density input – 6 hr storm-relative composites – 2005-2010 developmental sample from WWLLN – Real time in 2011 from WWLLN feed at CIRA Last year Vaisala used in real time, which introduced additional source of error – Text product distributed from CIRA – Analogous to text product for operational RII

4. 4 6 hour WWLLN Lightning Strikes -- Hurricane Omar 16 Oct 2008 RII predictors include inner core (0-100 km) and rainband (200-300 km) lightning strike density

5. Sample Text Output from 2010 product Lightning-Based Rapid Intensification Forecast Algorithm Hurricane Alex 30 June 2010 00 UTC Will be available at: ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/demaria/NHCPG 5

6. Summary of 2011 RII Changes WWLLN used in real time, consistent with developmental sample Output will also include rapid weakening probability – Max wind decrease of 20 kt or more in 24 hr – Valid for storms over water