1. 21 January, 2011 Washington D.C. Aaron Scott, DVM PhD DACVPM Center Director, NSU USDA/APHIS/VS Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health 1 Safeguarding Animal Health

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3. 3 Stakes are high Curves ahead Map??? Road ends Traffic delays Run out of gas Surveillance Information for action

4. Animal Health Safeguarding Review 2001 Primary Recommendation: Congress and the USDA must provide funding and act to rebuild the state and national infrastructure for animal disease control, emergency disease preparedness and response.

5. Principle 1a – A comprehensive, coordinated, integrated surveillance system is the foundation for animal health, public health, food safety, and environmental health

6. 1. Early detection– reduce spread 2. “Proof” of freedom 3. Food safety/security 4. Public health Market Access 6 Safeguarding Animal Health

7. National surveillance SAHO / Tribal Authorities Producer Private Veterinarian / National Veterinary Accreditation Program 7 Safeguarding Animal Health

8. Estimate $565,000,000 per hour cost of FMD outbreak 8 Safeguarding Animal Health

9. 10% reduction in morbidity/mortality ~$ 1,400,000,000 9 Safeguarding Animal Health

10. Exchange of information between health authorities is needed for safe flow of commerce and for disease control decisions. Ongoing publication of statistical data on diseases and populations Prompt notification of unusual or emergency situations Public Policy Transparency in methods used for analysis Access to complete and correct information Challenging assumptions 10 Safeguarding Animal Health

11. $11,7 00,000,000 > $25,000,000,000 to economy ~150,000 jobs 11 Safeguarding Animal Health But that’s only part of the story….

12. food safety 12 Safeguarding Animal Health food security Agro-terrorism Emerging diseases Public health National economy Greater Demands on National Animal Health Surveillance System

13. 13 Safeguarding Animal Health Information sharing? Confidentiality?

14. 14 Safeguarding Animal Health

15. 15 “The answer is obvious - to accomplish more with less….”

16. Safeguarding Animal Health 16 Comprehensive and Integrated National Animal Health Surveillance “Building Partnerships and Leading Change” Innovation Partnerships Metrics

17. Cost efficient Benefit to broad stakeholder base Disease flexible Rapidly responsive 17 Safeguarding Animal Health And gives Information for National Status

18. P (intro) * SSe* p(success) * costs averted ______________________________ Cost of surveillance 18 Safeguarding Animal Health

19. Stakes are high We know surveillance concepts We know the budget is limited We’ve learned how to value/prioritize Let’s talk about approaches to surveillance 19 Safeguarding Animal Health

20. Random sample Targeted toward higher risk Inference possible with RR Definition of subpopulation Concepts of compartmentalization, zoning, regionalization – risk based recognition 20 Safeguarding Animal Health

21. High Se and low Sp Anomalies in animal health 21 Safeguarding Animal Health

22. Tuberculosis Johnes Brucellosis BSE TX

23. RuminantSwinePoultry Emerging Aquaculture Identify Emerging Diseases Early Detection of FADs Enhanced Program Disease SurveillanceMonitor and Control Domestic Diseases Standardized National Data Systems (AHSM, NAHLN, others) NAHLN Laboratories Standardized and Coordinated Planning Analysis Modeling Reporting Strategic Planning Prioritization Collaboration Communication Response Government and industry infrastructure built over a century of disease management Sampling Streams Passive Reporting Traceability NAHMS Studies Surveillance Information for Action CSF FMD PRV FMD BSE Scrapie Brucellosis AI VHS Open source Intelligence Risk Assessment ISA B. suis Pathways NPIP TB

24. Livestock markets NAHLN labs Slaughter plants Accredited vets on farm Interstate movement Surveillance information for action IT bucket Disease programs “Turn on the faucet” 24 Safeguarding Animal Health Analysis Interpretation Reporting

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27. August 2010 27

28. Slaughter plant condemns Laboratory submissions [On-farm] Accredited veterinarians Livestock markets Data provide triggers for investigation Safeguarding Animal Health 28

29. P(intro)  high SSE  also high Mitigation potential  yes, it’s realtime Cost averted  many diseases, very high Cost of surveillance  relatively low 29 Safeguarding Animal Health

30. Cooperation and participation Confidentiality and data sharing Information management systems National coordination of procedures for reporting and action Government verification role Epidemiologic investigations TAIO 30 Safeguarding Animal Health

31. 31 Safeguarding Animal Health Thank You