1. Thunderstorm Forecasting in NYC Christina Speciale, Rutgers University Dr. Steven Decker, Rutgers University Brandon Hertell, Consolidated Edison

2. Agenda Introduction Hypothesis Methodology Results Summary Future Work 2

3. Introduction 3

4. Meteorologists use atmospheric variables to forecast potential thunderstorm development & strength Atmosphere measured 2x daily via weather balloon –8am & 8pm (EDT) (12z & 00z) 4

5. Introduction Variables provide insight to the state of the atmosphere Standard ranges for these variables have been developed to forecast severe thunderstorms Applied uniformly 5

6. Hypothesis 6

7. Are standard t-storm variable ranges relevant in the NYC area? –Potential customization of variables? –Where and when do NYC t-storms occur? –Synoptic features present? 7

8. Methodology 8

9. Build severe thunderstorm database –Events 2006-2009 –Within or near ConEdison service territory –Must include one or more of the following conditions 58mph or above wind gusts ¾”+ hail Spawn tornado Goal was 30 events, found 39 9

10. Methodology Collect atmospheric and surface weather data –National Weather Service (NWS) –Storm Prediction Center (SPC) –Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) 10 Sounding LocationsSurface Analysis Upton Sterling Pittsburgh Buffalo Albany Chatham

11. Methodology Organized and sorted data by –Time and location –Atmospheric variables –Synoptic features –Significant weather observed 11

12. Results 12

13. Results Stability 13

14. Results Thunderstorm Type 14

15. Results Thunderstorm Type Con’t 15

16. Results 16

17. Results 17

18. Results 18

19. 19 Results-Synoptic Features

20. Summary 20

21. Summary Standard atmospheric variable ranges do not always apply in NYC –2 of 7 variables –Potential customization – CAPE, LI, Total Totals, Helicity, SWEAT June, July, August most likely months for severe weather Westchester, Queens, & New York Counties had highest number of severe weather reports Low pressure, cold fronts, & jet stream location are contributing factors to severe weather 21

22. Future Work 22

23. Future Work Match event timing to closest sounding Narrow thunderstorm database further to the “most severe” events Look for combinations or patterns between variables Expand thunderstorm database Find additional sounding information 23

24. Acknowledgement Dr. Steven Decker, Associate Professor, Rutgers University Brandon Hertell, ConEdison 24