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A changing labour market and the future of VET Tom Karmel Centre for the Economics of Education and Training 14 th Annual National Conference 29 October,

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Presentation on theme: "A changing labour market and the future of VET Tom Karmel Centre for the Economics of Education and Training 14 th Annual National Conference 29 October,"— Presentation transcript:

1 A changing labour market and the future of VET Tom Karmel Centre for the Economics of Education and Training 14 th Annual National Conference 29 October, Melbourne

2 Employed persons by highest qualification, 1996 and 2006 Highest qualification19962006 Higher degree2.13.7 Bachelor degree13.418.3 Diploma and advanced diploma8.19.0 Certificate III and IV14.218.2 Other certificates10.98.8 No non-school qualification51.342.1 Total100.0

3 Occupation categories by definitions Skills category Academic: Most have a higher degree Professional - University: All have a degree Professional - Tertiary: All have a higher level qualification Lower professional: Most have a higher level qualification Skilled vocational: Most have a certificate III/IV (a) Qualifications within VET (b) Others Other vocational: Most have a certificate I/II or other certificate not further defined Unskilled (the rest)

4 Number of occupations by skills categories, 1996 and 2006 Skills category 19962006 Academic23 Professional - uni1018 Professional - tertiary2218 Lower professional5669 Skilled vocational (a) More than 50% with certificate III to adv diploma4658 (b) Others1937 Other vocational113 Unskilled231191 Total397

5 Number of occupations by skills categories by age, 2006 Skills category 25-34 years 55-64 years Academic26 Professional - uni 368 Professional -tertiary1525 Lower professional7554 Skilled vocational (a) More than 50% with certificate III to adv diploma6061 (b) Others5731 Other vocational16 Unskilled151206 Total397

6 Occupations within the professional (uni) group for 25-34 year olds but not 55-64 year olds ChemistsOccupational Therapists Medical ScientistsOptometrists Other Natural & Physical Science ProfessionalsPhysiotherapists Architects & Landscape ArchitectsSpeech Pathologists Civil EngineersPodiatrists Mining and Materials EngineersMedical Imaging Professionals Other Building & Engineering ProfessionalsDietitians Mathematicians, Statisticians & ActuariesPrimary School Teachers Nurse ManagersSecondary School Teachers Nurse Educators & ResearchersSpecial Education Teachers Registered MidwivesUrban & Regional Planners Social Workers

7 Occupations within the professional (tertiary) group for 25-34 year olds but not 55-64 year olds Child Care Co-ordinators Professionals, nfd Environmental and Agricultural Science Professionals Building and Engineering Professionals, nfd Mechanical, Production and Plant Engineers Accountants Corporate Treasurers Registered Nurses Registered Mental Health Nurses Natural Therapy Professionals Other Health Professionals

8 Creating a skills index for occupations  Based on a latent trait with a normal distribution  Impute: ► Higher degree=2.081 ► Degree= 1.316 ► Diploma=0.6271 ► Cert III/IV=0.2505 ► Other cert=-0.0215 ► No qual=-.7150

9 Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

10 Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

11 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

12 Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

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14 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

15 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

16 Cumulative distribution of qualifications by age group, selected age groups 2006

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19 Implications for VET  What is VET?

20 Possible types of tertiary institutions  The research university  The omni-university  The polytechnic  The residual TAFE

21 Thank you

22 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

23

24 Employed persons by highest qualification, 1996 and 2006 (%) Highest qualification19962006 Higher degree2.13.7 Bachelor degree13.418.3 Diploma and advanced diploma8.19.0 Certificate III and IV14.218.2 Other certificates10.98.8 No non-school qualification51.342.1 Total100.0 Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated

25 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

26 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

27 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

28 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

29 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

30 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

31 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

32 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

33 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

34 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

35 Cumulative distribution of qualifications, 1996 and 2006

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37

38

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40 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups 2006 (%)

41 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

42 Employed persons by skills level (skills levels based on 1996 deciles of employment), selected age groups, persons born in Australia 2006 (%) Notes: Bachelor degree includes bachelor degree and graduate diploma/ graduate certificate Other vocational includes, certificates I/II, certificates not further defined, and level inadequately described or not stated Source: Derived from the Census of Population and Housing, 2006

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