1. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 Slide 1 From Nuclear Rivalry to Nuclear Cooperation: The Role of an Epistemic Community in the Creation of ABACC (1980-1991) Dr. Sara Z. Kutchesfahani Los Alamos National Laboratory Presentation for the Commemoration of the 20 th Anniversary of ABACC Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 11 November, 2011

2. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078  Background  Theoretical Framework  The Case of ABACC Outline Kutchesfahani Slide 2

3. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078  Background  Theoretical Framework  The Case of ABACC Outline Kutchesfahani Slide 3

4. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 Background: Why Argentina & Brazil were Suspected of Pursuing a Nuclear Weapons Programme 1.Regional rivalry – living under military leaderships 2.Nuclear fuel cycle – unsafeguarded nuclear facilities 3.Anti international nuclear non-proliferation regime – NPT, NSG, full-scope IAEA safeguards, Treaty of Tlatelolco Kutchesfahani Slide 4

5. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 1.Transition to democracy (Solingen 1994, Paul 2000, Levite 2002/2003, Muller and Schmidt 2010) 2.Pursuit of economic liberalisation (Solingen 1994) 3.Trust building through confidence building measures (Redick 1995, Reiss 1995, Wheeler 2009) Background: Why Argentina & Brazil did not pursue a Nuclear Weapons Programme Kutchesfahani Slide 5

6. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078  Background  Theoretical Framework  The Case of ABACC Outline Kutchesfahani Slide 6

7. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 Epistemic Community Framework  Characteristics: “Network of professionals with recognized expertise and competence in a particular domain and an authoritative claim to policy-relevant knowledge within that domain or issue area. […] They share (1) normative and principled beliefs; (2) causal beliefs; (3) notions of validity; and (4) common policy enterprise.” (Haas 1992: 3)  Emergence: Times of uncertainty and complexity provide an opening for an epistemic community to influence decision makers.  Influence Mechanisms: Policy Innovation – Policy Diffusion – Policy Selection – Policy Persistence: Role of knowledge and access to decision makers. Kutchesfahani Slide 7

8. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 State A SUBSTATE LEVEL Academics STATE LEVEL Decision makers Scientists Analysts Government officials 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 State C SUBSTATE LEVEL Academics STATE LEVEL Decision makers Scientists Analysts Government officials 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 State B SUBSTATE LEVEL Academics STATE LEVEL Decision makers Scientists Analysts Government officials 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 INTERNATIONAL LEVEL i.e., new international agreements 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Kutchesfahani Slide 8 Epistemic Community at Work

9. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078  Background  Theoretical Framework  The Case of ABACC Outline Kutchesfahani Slide 9

10. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 1.May 1980:  Brazilian General Figuerido visits Buenos Aires  First joint nuclear agreement is signed 2.1983-1989:  Transition to democracy  A&B scientists began calling for bilateral nuclear cooperation and mutual inspections  Reciprocal visits  Signing of 5 nuclear cooperation agreements 3.1990-1991:  New Presidents  Decision to create a mutual safeguards inspection regime was made  Signing of 4 nuclear cooperation agreements (incl. SCCC and ABACC) ABACC Origins Kutchesfahani Slide 10

11. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078  “Scientists, nuclear experts, diplomats, and other relevant officials according with the competence of nuclear matters in each country”  “Scientists offered the structure behind ABACC”  “The main impulse for opening up [the nuclear programmes] came from the highest authorities in government”  “There were no closed segments just for scientists or diplomats. Communications among all those sectors were very fluid and interactive”  “Combination of political leadership and physicists”  “Scientists played a very key role in the establishment of ABACC”  “Scientists were very influential and their role was fundamental in the creation of ABACC” Kutchesfahani Slide 11 ABACC Epistemic Community: Who?

12. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 1.Shared similarities:  Competing for economic and political leadership in the Southern Cone  Living under military dictatorships  Deterioration of their economies  Similar progress in their civilian nuclear programmes 2.Shared ideas:  Determination to acquire technological autonomy (energy independence)  The right to engage in peaceful nuclear explosions  Resisting against a perceived discriminatory nature of the nuclear non- proliferation regime Fostered through participation in various international fora (including IAEA BoG and UN Conference on Disarmament), Pugwash, and in joint scientific and technical research. ABACC Epistemic Community: Emergence? Kutchesfahani Slide 12

13. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 ARGENTINA Government officials Scientists BRAZIL Government officials Scientists 1950 1970s 1980s 1991 Desire to achieve technological autonomy Discriminatory nature of non- proliferation regime Development of common nuclear policy Establishment of a mutual safeguards regime ABACC Discriminatory nature of non- proliferation regime Development of common nuclear policy 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 2 2 3 3 Desire to achieve technological autonomy JWG/PCNA Reciprocal visits Joint Declarations 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 3 How was ABACC Created? KEY: 1 = Policy Innovation 2 = Policy Diffusion 3 = Policy Selection 4 = Policy Persistence Kutchesfahani Slide 13

14. Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D LA-UR 11-06078 Why ABACC is Important ABACC/SCCC Argentina: December 1991 Brazil: December 1991 MTCR Argentina: November 1993 Brazil: October 1995 Treaty of Tlatelolco Argentina: January 1994 Brazil: May 1994 Quadripartite Agreement Argentina: March 1994 Brazil: March 1994 NSG Argentina: 1994 Brazil: 1996 NPT Argentina: February 1995 Brazil: September 1998 Kutchesfahani Slide 14