1. 2010 Homicide Prediction By Kevin Sullivan Kantivut Kanjad Nirav Navi, Marawan Mahmoud Group A

2. Homicide Rate Income Unemployme nt Rate Gang Presence/Act ivity Dropout Rate Weapons Licensed/Unli censed Historical Data Potential Factors

3. Homicide Rate Historical Date Income Unemploy ment Rate Potential Factors

4. Income Homicides ? Income

5. Income / Homicide

7. {Homicide} {Income} Income / Homicide

8. Unemployment Homicides ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Unemployment

9. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Unemployment / Homicide

10. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Unemployment / Homicide

11. HomicideUnemployment

12. USING OUR PAST TO PREDICT OUR FUTURE Historical Data

13. Zip Code Total20052006200720082009 Avg 5-Y Avg 3-Y Avg 2-Y 631151061124272420 212422 6311392219162224 182123 63107781517121717 161517 6311269139171614 141615 63120691813151310 141312 631184155111010 81010 6310638568127 8910 631473274588 678 6310427411156 546 631112252645 455 631162227445 445 631101934291 445 631081674230 322 631031322036 335 63102910512 232 63101301011 111 63139100001 001 63109110000 000 Number of Homicide in St. Louis

14. St. Louis 5-Year Average Homicide Heat Map 63147 63120 63115 63107 6311263113 63106 63101 63102 63108 63110 63104 63139 63116 63118 63111 63109

15. 2005-2009 Homicide Map

16. Yearly Homicide Record of The Top 9 Zip Code

17. Zip Code Total05-0606-0707-0808-09 63115106133-3-4 6311392-12762 63107782-550 6311269-48-2 6312069-52-2-3 6311841060 6310638124-5 6314732-3130 63104277-1041 63136232-31-3 63116225-301 6311122-34-21 63110191-27-8 6310816-3-21-3 63103130-233 6310295-41 63133421 63137312-2 631013110 6313910001 631091000 631051000 Yearly Change on Homicide Record of The Top 9 Zip Code

18. Yearly Homicide Record of The Top 9 Zip Code

19. Monthly Homicide Record in the last 5 Years

20. Calculate % Change of each Year Identify the Hi/Lo %Change Calculate the %Change Average Calculate the High/Lo Homicide Calculate the Homicide Average Apply the Probability to the Homicide Average

21. MonthProbability January0.056851312 February0.049562682 March0.064139942 April0.078717201 May0.097667638 June0.099125364 July0.087463557 August0.093294461 September0.097667638 October0.087463557 November0.102040816 December0.086005831 Zip CodeProbabilityZip CodeProbability 631150.154744526631110.032116788 631130.134306569631100.027737226 631070.112408759631080.020437956 631200.100729927631030.018978102 631120.100729927631020.013138686 631180.059854015631330.005839416 631060.054014599631370.004379562 631470.046715328631010.004379562 631040.039416058631050.001459854 631360.033576642631090.001459854 631160.032116788631390.001459854

22. Predicted 2010 Monthly Homicide

23. 2010 Predicted Homicide Map