1. Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

2. ENSC 202 Regional ERA The Conceptual Model

3. Traditional vs Regional ERA

4. Ranks and Filters in RRERA Model Weighting the likelihood of exposure Ranking components of the conceptual model Weighting the likelihood of impact Exposure and Impact “Filters”

5. SR i1 Sources Stressors Habitats & Resources Assessment Endpoints & Indicators Source score (SR ij ): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of source j in watershed i? Stressor score: computed as SS ijk = SR ij * EL jk * EL jk Cumulative stressor score computed as CSS ik = Σ j (SR ij * Ef jk * Ef jk ) What specific characteristics could be measured? What resources would be needed? Watershed (WS i ) for i watersheds Effect filter: The product of the Effect Link (EL jk ) and Effect Importance (EL jk ) Matrices. How important is source j as a contributor to stressor k? (None, Small, Moderate, Large) Impact filter: The product of the Impact Link (IL km ) and Impact Importance (II km ) Matrices. How important is stressor k as an impact on habitat m? (Lg, Mod, Sm, None). Individual habitat risk is IHR im = [Σ k (CSS ik *IF km *IF km )*HB im ] Habitat score (HB im ): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of habitat m in watershed i? Cumulative Stressors (CSS ik ) SR i2 SR i3 SR i4 SR ij … SS iJ1 SS i2 SS iJ3 SR iJ4 SR ijK … Effect Link Matrix SR jk x SS jk Effect Importance Matrix SR jk x SS jk X Effects Filter Impact Link Matrix SS km x HB km Impact Importance Matrix SS km x HB km X Impacts Filter HB i1 HB i2 HB i3 HB i4 HB im … AEP 1 AEP 2 AEP 3 AEP 4 AEP m … … Lake Champlain Relative Ecological Risk Assessment Model

6. Source Stressor Receptor Habitat Endpoint Indicator RS = S * H * SRwRS = H * E * REw Source SR ij for j sources Habitat HB im for m habitats Endpoint Narrative only Stressor SS ijk = SR ij * EF jk for k stressors Indicator Narrative only Valdez Case Study Our Revised Framework Sub-watershed (W i, for i sub-watersheds) Sub-watershed CWR i = Σ m (IHR im ) Cumulative sub- watershed risk across all habitats for each of the i sub-watersheds EF jk CSS ik = Σ j (SR ij * EF jk ) Cumulative stressor score, by sub-watershed, for all j sources IF km CHR m = Σ i (IHR im ) Cumulative habitat risk, across sub-watersheds for each of the m habitats Comparison of Frameworks IHR im = [Σ k (CSS ik *IF km )*HB im ] IHR im habitat risk, by sub- watershed and habitat, for all k stressors Things we can derive See Sqaulicum Creek Case Study Note: EF jk = EL ij * EI ij Note: IF km = IL km * II km

7. Lake Segments - Watersheds Missiquoi BayMissisquoi St. Albans BayStevens/Rugg Northeast ArmNortheast Arm Mallets BayLamoille Main Lake (VT)Winooski Burlington BayBurlington Bay Shelburne BayLaPlatte Otter CreekOtter Creek South Lake ALake George South Lake BPoultney/Mettawee Port HenryPort Henry Main Lake (NY)Boquet/AuSable Cumberland BaySaranac Isle La MotteIsle La Motte Direct WatershedsOther Direct

8. Sources Agriculture Urban WWTPs Dams Roads Fisheries Marinas Forested Areas Industrial Parks External

9. Stressor list (composite) This list needs was simplified to a consistent set of agreed classes Phosphorous (all types) · Soluble Reactive P (SRP) · Particulate P Pathogens · Fish pathogens: VHS · Human pathogens: E. coli Toxic Substances · pesticides · herbicides · heavy metals · hydrocarbons · dioxin & like compounds · phthalates Recreation (distributed) Land use · Terrestrial · Aquatic · Riparian Vehicle use · Terrestrial · Aquatic Invasive Species · Zebra mussel · Purple loosetrife · Water Chestnut · Eurasian water milfoil · Rusty crayfish · White perch Barriers to Movement of Aquatic Organisms · Dams · Roads · Culverts Fragmentation of Landscape

10. Habitats This list was simplified to a consistent set of agreed classes Open water – Lake Champlain <6’ >6’ – Lakes/Ponds other than Lake Champlain – Rivers and Streams Developed (all types) – Open space – Low intensity – Medium intensity – High intensity – Barren land (rock/sand/clay)…aka mines pits and such Forest (all types) – Deciduous – Coniferous – Mixed Herbaceous (all types) – Shrub – Grassland Agriculture (all types) – Pasture/hay – Cultivated crops Wetlands (all types) – Woody wetlands – Emergent herbaceous wetlands

11. Key Input Matrices – A Glossary Watershed x Source Matrix – What types of sources exist in each watershed and how large are they? [Extent] Effects Links Matrix – Does a link exist between a Source and Stressor? [Existence] Effects Importance Matrix – Is the Source a particularly potent Stressor? [Intensity] Effects Filter = Effects Links x Effects Importance Impact Links Matrix – Does a link exist between a Stressor and a Habitat? [Existence] Impacts Importance Matrix – Is the Stressor a particularly potent Impact? [Intensity] Impacts Filter = Effects Links x Effects Importance Watersheds x Habitats Matrix – What types of habitats exist in each watershed and how large are they? [Extent] BLUE matrices are inputs ORANGE matrices are calculated

12. Values of the Matrices Source and Habitat Matrices – None (0), Some (2), Common (4), Abundant (6) Link Matrices (Effects and Impacts) – No link (0), Possible link (0.5), Clear link (1) Importance Matrices (Effects and Impacts) – None (0), Weak (0.5), Moderate (1), Strong (2) – Should we add an apocalyptic 4?

13. Focus: Sources Team (Note: Explicitly sub-watershed based) What is the area/number/size of each source type in each sub-watershed? What is the rationale of scoring the “quantity” of each source (i.e., the source area, number, or size) What specific stressors are most important from each source? (Links directly to Stressors Team) Consider resources in Troy et al. (2007) Products – Watersheds x Sources matrix (The Source Matrix) – Sources x Stressors matrix (The Effects Link/Importance)

14. Focus: Stressor Teams ( Note: Not explicitly sub-watershed based) Why is your stressor important? Why is it a focus of concern? How does it act? For your stressor, what sources are most important? (Links directly to Sources Team but not watershed by watershed) What are the most pragmatic classes to use for your Stressor? What specific habitat types are most likely to be affected by each stressor class? (Links directly to Habitat Team but not watershed by watershed) Consider information in Opportunities of Action. Products – Sources > Stressors matrix (The Effects Filter for your stressor) – Stressors > Habitats matrix (The Impacts Filter for your stressor)

15. Focus: Habitat Team (Note: Explicitly sub-watershed based) What is the area/number/size of each habitat type in each sub-watershed? Are there pragmatic classes of habitats that make sense to group together? What are the key threats (Stressors, ignoring Sources) to your primary Habitat types/classes? (Links directly to Stressor Teams) What specific indicators would be most useful to monitor the general habitats? (Note suggestions from Watzin et al. 2005) Products – Watersheds > Habitats (The Habitats Matrix) – Suggestions for key Assessment Endpoints for each Habitat

16. The Sources Matrix (Sources Team) SR1SR2SR3… W1 Rank11Rank12Rank13 W2 Rank21Rank22Rank23 W3 Rank31Rank32Rank33 … Sources (for j different sources) Watershed (for I different watersheds BLUE matrices are inputs ORANGE matrices are calculated

17. The Effects Filter Matrices (Sources & Stressor Teams) SR1SR2SR3… Stressor1 Link11Link12Link13 Stressor2 Link21Link22Link23 Stressor3 Link21Link22Link23 … Sources (for j different sources) Stressors (For k different Stressors) SR1SR2SR3… Stressor1 Impt11Impt12Impt13 Stressor2 Impt21Impt22Impt23 Stressor3 Impt21Impt22Impt23 … Sources (for j different sources) Stressors (For k different Stressors) X SR1SR2SR3… Stressor1 EF 11EF 12EF 13 Stressor2 EF 21EF 22EF 23 Stressor3 EF 21EF 22EF 23 … Sources (for j different sources) Stressors (For k different Stressors) = Effects Link MatrixEffects Importance Matrix Effects Matrix

18. The Impacts Filter Matrices (Stressor and Habitat Teams) HAB1HAB2HAB3… ΣStressor1Link11Link12Link13 ΣStressor2Link21Link22Link23 ΣStressor3Link21Link22Link23 … Habitats (for m different habitats) Sum of Stressors over Sources (For k different Stressors) HAB1HAB2HAB3… ΣStressor1Impt11Impt12Impt13 ΣStressor2Impt21Impt22Impt23 ΣStressor3Impt21Impt22Impt23 … Habitats (for m different habitats) X SR1SR2SR3… ΣStressor1IF 11IF 12IF 13 ΣStressor2IF 21IF 22IF 23 ΣStressor3IF 21IF 22IF 23 … Habitats (for m different habitats) = Impacts Link MatrixImpacts Importance Matrix Impacts Matrix Sum of Stressors over Sources (For k different Stressors) Sum of Stressors over Sources (For k different Stressors)

19. The Habitat/Resource Matrix (Habitats Team) HAB1HAB2HAB3… W1 Rank11Rank12Rank13 W2 Rank21Rank22Rank23 W3 Rank31Rank32Rank33 … Sources (for m different habitats) Watershed (for I different watersheds

20. Summary Risk Matrices SR1SR2SR3… WS1RSK11RSK12RSL13 WS2RSK21RSK22RSK23 WS3RSK21RSK22RSK23 … Stressors (for k different stressors) Watersheds (For i different watersheds) Effects of all Sources of each Stressor by Watershed SR1SR2SR3… WS1RSK11RSK12RSL13 WS2RSK21RSK22RSK23 WS3RSK21RSK22RSK23 … Stressors (for k different stressors) Watersheds (For i different watersheds) Impacts over all Habitats of each Stressor by Watershed SO1SO2SO3… WS1RSK11RSK12RSL13 WS2RSK21RSK22RSK23 WS3RSK21RSK22RSK23 … Sources (for i different sources) Watersheds (For i different watersheds) Effects of all Stressors from each Source by Watersheds HAB1HAB2HAB3… WS1RSK11RSK12RSL13 WS2RSK21RSK22RSK23 WS3RSK21RSK22RSK23 … Habitats (for m different Habitats) Watersheds (For i different watersheds) Impacts of all Stressors on each Habitat by Watersheds

21. Reiteration of our Framework Note: In considering criteria ranking (or scoring), a “6” should be relative to conditions that prevail in the Lake Champlain Basin and not the “theoretical” worst case situation. For example, the Winooski watershed might rank a “6” in urban land use even though it is far less developed than, say, downtown Detroit or Baltimore. The key question is, to what stressors is Lake Champlain most susceptible? Source SR ij for j sources Habitat HB im for m habitats Endpoint Narrative only Stressor SS ijk = SR ij * EF jk for k stressors Indicator Narrative only Sub-watershed (W i, for i sub-watersheds) CWR i = Σ m (IHR im ) Cumulative sub- watershed risk across all habitats for each of the i sub-watersheds EF jk CSS ik = Σ j (SR ij * EF jk ) Cumulative stressor score, by sub-watershed, for all j sources IF km CHR m = Σ i (IHR im ) Cumulative habitat risk, across sub-watersheds for each of the m habitats IHR im = [Σ k (CSS ik *IF km )*HB im ] IHR im habitat risk, by sub- watershed and habitat, for all k stressors Things we can derive Note: EF jk = EL ij * EI ij Note: IF km = IL km * II km

22. Extra Slides

25. SR i1 Sources Stressors Habitats & Resources Assessment Endpoints & Indicators Source score (SR ij ): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of source j in watershed i? Stressor score: computed as SS ijk = SR ij * EL jk * EL jk Cumulative stressor score computed as CSS ik = Σ j (SR ij * Ef jk * Ef jk ) What specific characteristics could be measured? What resources would be needed? Watershed (WS i ) for i watersheds Effect filter: The product of the Effect Link (EL jk ) and Effect Importance (EL jk ) Matrices. How important is source j as a contributor to stressor k? (None, Small, Moderate, Large) Impact filter: The product of the Impact Link (IL km ) and Impact Importance (II km ) Matrices. How important is stressor k as an impact on habitat m? (Lg, Mod, Sm, None). Individual habitat risk is IHR im = [Σ k (CSS ik *IF km *IF km )*HB im ] Habitat score (HB im ): What is the extent (area, number, “importance”) of habitat m in watershed i? Cumulative Stressors (CSS ik ) SR i2 SR i3 SR i4 SR ij … SS iJ1 SS i2 SS iJ3 SR iJ4 SR ijK … Effects Filter EF ij HB i1 HB i2 HB i3 HB i4 HB im … AEP 1 AEP 2 AEP 3 AEP 4 AEP m … … Impacts Filter IF km ORIGINAL Framework - Discarded

26. Comparison of Original and Revised Frameworks Source x (Effects Filter) = Stress Σ(Stresses) x (Impact Filter) = Total Impact Total Impact x Habitat = Risk For Each Watershed Original Source x (Effects Link x Effects Importance) = Stress Σ(Stresses) x (Impact Link x Impact Importance) = Total Impact Total Impact x Habitat = Risk Revised