1. Higher Education: evidence on student outcomes May 2011 Robin Naylor Economics, Warwick 1Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

2. Themes 1.Socio-economic mobility Education => mobility... or persistence? 2.Willetts’ queue-jumpers A dark cloud... but with a silver lining? 3.Browne, fees and the public benefit Evidence on the private returns 2Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

3. 1.Socio-economic mobility Education => mobility... or persistence? Consider evidence on mobility in UK (PTO) Comparisons: UK vs US vs Nordic countries (role of education) UK: 1958 born vs 1970 born (Gregg-Machin on HE) 3Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

4. Robin Naylor18 th May 20114 Socio-economic Mobility Transition Matrix: UK, Father/Son Fig 1: An Intergenerational Income Mobility Transition Matrix: Father/Son; UK (NCDS)

5. Socio-economic mobility Education => mobility... or persistence? Consider evidence on mobility in UK Comparisons: UK vs US vs Nordic countries (role of education) UK: 1958 born vs 1970 born (Gregg-Machin on HE) 5Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

6. Socio-economic mobility Role of pre-HE Crucial: most differences in educational outcomes by family background are established by age 16... Role of HE... but differences continue into HE (and beyond) 6Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

7. Socio-economic mobility Differences continue into HE 7Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011 A W If A-levels are a level- playing field and there is no financial deterrent from fees.

8. Socio-economic mobility Differences continue into HE 8Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011 A W j i But if A-levels are not a level-playing field...

9. Socio-economic mobility There is clear evidence that A-levels are not a level-playing field: Naylor and Smith (OBES) + HEFCE + Schwartz http://www.warwick.ac.uk/go/robinnaylor/publications/obes 2001.pdfhttp://www.warwick.ac.uk/go/robinnaylor/publications/obes 2001.pdf (page 10) 9Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

10. Themes Figure 2 leads neatly to a discussion of: 2.Willetts’ queue-jumpers A dark cloud... but with a silver lining? 10Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

11. Willetts’ queue-jumpers 11Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011 A W

12. A further concern: If up-front fees are phased in... 12Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011 A W

13. An alternative to the graduate tax: High Fees and Generous income-related grants + fair admissions 13Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011 A W

14. 3.Browne, fees and the public benefit Economists’ concept of external benefits/costs imply subsidies/taxes e.g. Vaccination/tax on tobacco Browne:No external benefits from HE (quote) Hence withdrawal of public subsidy Academic community has not won argument about public benefits of HE 14Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

15. 3.Browne, fees and the public benefit Let’s just consider the private benefits Dearing £400k premium over a lifetime Browne: £120k (different methodology) But both ignore variation around average (other than by institution and course) Yet these are considerable... 15Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 2011

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17. Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 201117 Evidence of returns to HE from birth cohort studies in Britain? HE APIHE APIEarnings premium (%) +4 cohortsMenWomen NCDS13% (1977) 14%12-1834-38 1958 Birth cohort BCS70 1970 Birth cohort 1Conceals extent of growth in female participation in HE. 18% (1989) 1 30%1518

18. Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 201118 Selected Results of occupational earnings equation for the 1993 cohort MALES FEMALES VariableCoeff Coeff Degree class I0.038 *** 0.037 *** II.1 (default) II.2-0.054 *** -0.042 *** III-0.094 *** -0.053 *** Other-0.080 *** -0.079 *** Combined with our BCS70 results: Average Graduate Premium = £120k (Browne) Av Premium for Grad with 1 st /2.1 = £160k Av Premium for Grad with 2.2/3 = £80k

19. Festival of Social Sciences 18th May 201119 Returns by degree class (all UK university students)