1. Hypotheses

2. Hypotheses are about applying theory to your research question A good research paper starts with a context that conceptualizes the problem, often with formal theory, but at least with heuristics. The crux of research is applying theory to shed light on some problem.

3. Conceptualizing problems is hard to teach – It is abstract – It requires insight and understanding of the problem – It requires synthesis of concepts and “real world” aspects of the problem – It requires a strong foundation in economic theory and the application of economic theory to applied problems – Should structure your concept of your problem around major economic theories Eg, utility maximization, rational expectations, etc.

4. Class participation exercise – Someone please propose one of their research questions – Let’s have a discussion about what theories might be relevant to this question – We’ll do this for several of the questions

5. Theorizing is simply thinking about an issue in the context of economic theories and analysis, mostly to identify how they relate. Ask yourself three questions – What are the essential concepts involved in the problem being researched? – How are these essential concepts related? – What implications or predictions can be drawn from these relationships? Theory can be narrative (conceptual) or mathematical. You can build a model from scratch, but more usual you will borrow and adapt an existing model from the literature.

6. Class participation exercise – For the questions we just discussed, let’s to some theorizing – Use the context of the three questions – Does anyone know existing models that might apply? – We’ll do this for several of the questions

7. Good theorizing leads to testable hypotheses A hypothesis – is an educated guess about how things work.; – is a prediction about the outcome of the research. ;is the proposed answer to the research question or the main assertion about the topic; – will be supported by the rest of the paper. A good hypothesis provides a framework around which a paper can be organized.

8. Your hypothesis – Should be stated simply and clearly; – Must be able to be separated from alternative hypotheses; Primary hypothesis and alternative hypothesis must not overlap. They must be clearly distinguishable, – It should be testable, to be proven false. – It should depend on the theory. – If the test is empirical, the data for the test should be available or at least possible.

9. Class participation exercise – For the theories we just discussed, let’s develop some hypotheses – Let’s evaluate them for being “good” hypotheses. – We’ll do this for several of the questions

10. The hypothesis and the research process Question – Your hypotheses should answer the question. You may want to start with an If…then statement. – You may need to examine more than one hypothesis to address all aspects of the question Theory – the hypothesis is derived from theory Model – the hypothesis appears most likely at the end of the model section as the testable result of this section. Analysis – the test of the hypothesis Results – support or falsify the hypothesis. Implications/conclusions – discuss what the hypothesis means, why the result is important and possibly alternative hypotheses

11. Class participation Let’s go back to the examples, and explore how the hypotheses relate to the question, and the rest of the research process.