1. American Government and Politics Today
Chapter Five:
Public Opinion, Political Socialization and the Media

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Learning Outcomes
LO 1 Define public opinion, consensus opinion, and divided opinion, and discuss major sources of political socialization, including the family, schools, the media, and political events. LO 2 Identify the effects of various influences on voting behavior, including education, income, religion, race/ethnicity, and geography. LO 3 Describe the characteristics of a scientific opinion poll, and list some of the problems pollsters face in obtaining accurate results. LO 4 Consider the effect that public opinion may have on the political process. LO 5 Describe the different types of media and the changing roles that they play in American society. LO 6 Summarize the impact of the media on political campaigns, and consider the issue of political bias in the media.
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3. Public Opinion and Political Socialization
Consensus and Divided Opinion
Forming Public Opinion: Political Socialization
The family
Education as a source of political socialization
Peers and peer group influence
Opinion leaders’ influence
Consensus: general agreement among the citizenry on an issue
Divided opinion - public opinion that is polarized between 2 quite different positions
Political socialization: the process by which people acquire political beliefs and values
Where do your political beliefs and opinions come from?
Our parents’ political beliefs, values, and actions affect our opinions AND family links us to other factors such as race, social class, educational environment, and religious beliefs
Schools have always been important transmitters of political information and attitudes
Generally, the more education a person receives, the more likely it is that they’re interested in politics
Peer groups consist of members who share common social characteristics
Important influence on children and adults
Political attitudes are more likely to be shaped by peer groups when those groups are involved directly in political activities
Opinion leader: one who is able to influence the opinions of others, formally or informally, because of position, expertise, or personality
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Pastor Rick Warren, author of The Purpose Driven Life, speaks to a conference on AIDS in Washington, D.C. Is Warren an opinion leader?
(Michael Kovac/Getty Images for the Elton John AIDS Foundation)
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Consensual Opinion
Divided Opinion
Source: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, “In Gun Control Debate, Several Options Draw Majority
Support,” January 14, 2013.
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6. Public Opinion and Political Socialization
The Media and Public Opinion
The popularity of the media
The impact of new media
Political Events and Public Opinion
Media strongly influence public opinion – media inform the public about the issues and events of our times
Agenda-setting effect: determining which public-policy questions will be debated or considered
Many argue the media’s influence on public opinion has grown to equal that of the family
High schoolers mention media as their source for political views more than families, friends, and teachers
New media includes the Internet, talk radio, and cable television
More likely that it strengthens previously-held beliefs than it recruits new members to a different side
Polarization
Older Americans tend to be more conservative than younger Americans
Generational effect: a long-lasting effect of the events of a particular time on the political opinions of those who came of political age at that time
Examples: working class voters who grew up during the Great Depression – more likely to be lifelong Democrats because of FDR
Economic prosperity under Reagan led many young people to identify with the Republican Party
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7. The Influence of Demographic Factors
Educational Achievement
Economic Status
Religious Denomination
Religious Commitment and Beliefs
Individuals with post-grad education (physicians, attorneys, and college instructors) have become predominantly Democratic
Higher percentage of voters with only a high school education voted Republican in the last 4 presidential elections
Economic Status: those with low incomes tend to favor government action to benefit the poor or promote economic equality
High incomes: tend to oppose government intervention except when it benefits business
Upper class voters are more likely to endorse cultural liberalism, lower class favor cultural conservatism (four-cornered ideological grid from Chapter 1)
Denomination: Protestants and Catholics are more similar politically than they used to be, Jewish voters are more liberal, but overall, breakdowns into Protestant, Catholic, and Jewish are less helpful in predicting political preferences
Commitment and Beliefs: degree of commitment (churchgoing) & degree to which voter adheres to religious beliefs (conservative, evangelical, or fundamentalist)
High scores on either = cultural conservatism
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8. The Influence of Demographic Factors
Race and Ethnicity
The Hispanic Vote
A Latino woman and her eighteen-month-old daughter march to the White House in support of immigration reform. How is the daughter acquiring political values by attending a rally with her mother?
Photo: (Ryan Rodrick Beiler/Shutterstock.com)
African Americans tend to be somewhat conservative on certain cultural issues (same-sex marriage, abortion), and more liberal than whites on social-welfare matters, civil liberties, and even foreign policy
Most African Americans lean Democrat, same with Asian Americans except Vietnamese
Muslim Americans voted for George Bush on cultural conservatism, now Democratic
Hispanics: majority Democratic except Cuban Americans
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9. The Influence of Demographic Factors
The Gender Gap
Geographic Region
Reagan’s administration: men were more likely than women to approve of Reagan’s job performance, women more likely to go Democratic in recent years, women more likely to oppose capital punishment and armed forces abroad
Cultural Southerners (identify with losing Civil War): anti-Obama
Large cities: pro-Obama
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10. Measuring Public Opinion
The History of Opinion Polls
Sampling Techniques
The statistical nature of polling
Sampling error
Photo: (AP Photo/Byron Rollins)
Opinion poll: a method of systematically questioning a small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed representative of the total population
Early 1800s, poll results in newspapers, Literary Digest took polls to determine political opinions
Techniques: most important principle is randomness, everyone has an equal chance of being sampled
Choose a random selection of telephone numbers and interview the households – relatively accurate, low cost
Urban areas are considered representative of all urban areas…choose random within those areas
Specific numbers reported should more accurately be reported as a range of numbers, example: 7%-13%
Sampling error: difference between a sample result and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed
Harry Truman won the presidential election in 1948 despite the prediction of most opinion polls that he would lose. Would a newspaper today make such an inaccurate prediction and put it on newsstands?
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11. Measuring Public Opinion
The Difficulty of Obtaining Accurate Results
Weighting the sample
House effects
How accurate are the results?
Difficulties
Weighting the Sample
House effects: organization’s results consistently differ from those reported by other poll takers
Polls are generally accurate.
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12. Measuring Public Opinion
Additional Problems with Polls
Poll Questions
Unscientific and Fraudulent Polls
Opinion polls can be wrong if they don’t take into account undecided respondents that wait till the election to choose – a week before Election Day might even be too soon
Yes/no answers might wrongly inaccurately decide someone’s complicated views
Phrasing of the question changes outcomes
Order of questions, interactions with interviewer
Magazines and Web site public answers to polls as if they were scientifically chosen random sample
Watch out for surveys with self-selected respondents and skewed samples
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13. Presidential Election Polling
Click picture to play video
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14. Presidential Election Polling
Taking a closer look:
Have you ever participated in a political poll? Did you feel the questions were biased toward a candidate or political viewpoint?
Is sample size or sampling technique more important in polling accuracy?
How can political polling increase voter apathy among certain demographic groups?
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15. Public Opinion and the Political Process
Political Culture and Public Opinion
Political trust
Strong support by the public as expressed in opinion polls is a source of power in dealing with other politicians
Example: If president is popular, harder for Congress or a senator to say no to him/her
Helps shape campaigns
Our political culture provides a general environment of support for the political system – shared beliefs, attitudes, ideas – helps us weather periods of crisis
Political trust: the degree to which individuals express trust in political institutions (measured by polls)
Satisfaction levels rise and fall
Figure 6-3 Political Satisfaction Trend
Question: In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
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16. Public Opinion and the Political Process
The Most Important Problems
Public Opinion and Policymaking
Politicians make own decisions
Trade-offs
Even if people may not always have confidence in government, they still turn to it to solve the major problems facing the country
Politicians cannot always be guided by opinion polls
Someone will always be unhappy
Politicians attempt to maximize the net benefits to his/her constituents while keeping within limits of what government can afford
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The Roles of the Media
The Roles of the Media
Entertainment
Reporting the news
Identifying public problems
Most of radio and TV is dedicated to entertaining the public – essential to survival of networks and individual stations
Young people get political info from Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, both liberal
Internet is replacing TV as source of entertainment
Reporting: First Amendment protections intended to keep flow of news as free as possible – essential to democracy to be informed with unbiased information
Media determines what the government ought to do – helps set the political agenda
Investigative work to uncover public wrongdoing, presenting policy alternatives
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The Roles of the Media
The Roles of the Media
Socializing new generations
Providing a political forum
Making profits
The financial crisis of the press
Media plays a significant role in political socialization of younger generation and immigrants through transmission of historical information (sometimes fictionalized), the presentation of American culture, and the portrayal of the diverse regions and groups in the U.S.
What it means to be American
Political forum for leaders and their public, candidates use news to sustain interest in their campaigns, presidential trips abroad for news coverage, officeholders use media to gain support for policies, public debate through letters to the editor, blog posts, posts, and other channels
Profits: most of news media are private, for-profit corporate enterprises
Depend on advertising for revenues, except publicly-owned outlets like NPR and public TV stations
Press: newspapers are losing subscribers, online services can take on a greater share of classified ads
Online newspapers can’t make a profit and even Google, with no original content, collects 41% of ad revenue, while newspapers struggle
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The Roles of the Media
Television versus the New Media
New patterns of media consumption
The continuing influences of television
Older Americans still rely on TV and newspapers, but declining
Early adapters as well as older high-income persons have even abandoned and rely on Facebook and texting for messages
TV is a last resort if your show isn’t online
BUT, older Americans vote more consistently, and many early adapters are too young to vote
TV relies on videos that have exaggerated importance because people won’t see anything else, can be used to exploit drama
Sound bites
Daily 3 minute stories instead of long haul of a campaign or Congressional issue
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Political blogger Ezra Klein of the Washington Post has become well known as a guest host on the Rachel Maddow television show. Are political blogs influential?
(Photo by Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images for The New Yorker)
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21. The Media and Political Campaigns
Political Advertising
“Daisy Girl”
Management of News Coverage
Spin doctors
2012 presidential elections, total spending on political ads exceeded $7 billion
“Daisy Girl” – President Lyndon Johnson’s media adviser aired a 30 second ad attacking the Barry Goldwater’s expansive views on the role of the military
Little girl held a daisy in a field, pulled petals off and counted up until 10, when scary voice began countdown to atomic bomb. Preying on fear, one of the most memorable negative ads
Campaign staff tries to influence the quantity and type of coverage by understanding the importance of camera angles, equipment, timing, deadline
Can manipulate reporters through granting of favors, such as personal interviews
Spin doctor: political adviser who tries to convince journalists that his/her interpretations of political events are correct
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President Lyndon Johnson’s “Daisy Girl” ad contrasted the innocence of childhood with the horror of an atomic attack. Would such a campaign ad be effective today?
(Doyle, Dane, Bernbach)
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23. The Media and Political Campaigns
Going for the Knockout—Presidential Debates
The Republican primary debates
Obama versus Romney
Televised debates: helped JFK win
Debates favor challengers, less expectation of presidential image
Republican Primary: 27 televised debates that were widely viewed
Anti-Romney candidates each got their say and Romney prevailed
Obama v. Romney: Romney was presented by Obama campaign as rich financer who only cared about the wealthy
First debate: nixed that reputation and Obama wasn’t prepared
Obama came back in next 2 debates
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24. The Media and Political Campaigns
Political Campaigns and the Internet
Bias in the Media
Alternative forms of bias
Bias and professionalism
Photo: Commentator Bill O’Reilly is one of the stars of Fox News. Fox is known for its conservative slant on the news, and it is also more popular than its competitors. Why might this be? (Slevan Vlasic/Getty Images)
Campaigns have Internet strategists – maintain website, social media accounts, blogs, and podcasts, monitoring websites for favorable/unfavorable content about candidate
Bias: 75% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats think mainstream media is too liberal
Some argue the real bias is in favor of stories that involve conflict and drama
Code of objectivity at least helps to eliminate bias
Fox News is accused of allowing conservative view to interfere with objectivity
Others say media bias isn’t relevant because the rise of the Internet is changing media consumption
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25. Proud to be an American Click picture to play video
Air date: November, 2008
Click picture to play video
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Proud to be an American
Taking a closer look:
What forms of political socialization are evident in the video?
Do all Americans share the same political values? Why or why not?
How do media “sound bites” affect public opinion? Does this play too large a role in modern political campaigns?
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