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ESCB statistics for European policy making
Gabriel Quirós Head of Division Macroeconomic Statistics European Central Bank Workshop on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA in EECCA countries and linkages with BPM6 and GFSM 2014 Istanbul, 6-8 May 2015
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Outline The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM
1 The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM 2 Legal framework for statistics Production of statistics 3
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Euro area: 19 EU Member States which have adopted the euro
The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM European System of Central Banks (ESCB): ECB and national central banks of the 28 Member States of the European Union FI Eurosystem: ECB and national central banks of the 19 EU Member States of the euro area SE EE Single Supervisory Mechanism: ECB and the national supervisory authorities of the euro area and other EU countries which choose to participate LV LT UK NL PL DE BE LU CZ SK FR AT HU Euro area: 19 EU Member States which have adopted the euro RO SI HR IT BG ES GR EU Member States with a derogation
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Financial Stability/ Banking Supervision
The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM Key ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB functions Monetary policy Financial Stability/ Banking Supervision Payment systems Banking supervision and contribute to stability of the financial system Define and implement monetary policy Promote smooth operation of payment systems
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Statistics supporting decision making
The ECB / Eurosystem / ESCB / SSM Statistics supporting decision making own produced statistics European statistics produced by Eurostat and the national statistical offices (e.g. GDP, HICP, labour market and short-term business statistics) data from commercial data providers ESCB European statistics Monetary and financial statistics External statistics Securities statistics Supervisory statistics Quarterly euro area accounts Other statistics 5
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Treaty of the EU Legal framework for European statistics
Article 5 ESCB/ECB Statute Article 338 TFEU European Statistical System Regulation 223/09 ECB collecting statistics Regulation 2533/98 Eurosystem ECB Guidelines NCBs EP and Council Regulations addressed to Member States ECB Regulations addressed to reporting agents … Short-term Statistics HICP ESA 2010 transmission programme Investment Funds … Insurance Corp. & Pension Funds BOP MUFA GFS MFI Balance sheet Interest rates Financial Vehicle Corporations Securities Holdings
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Legal framework for ECB statistics
Legal basis for new ECB tasks - SSM Regulation. Council Regulation No 1024/2013: “confers to the ECB specific tasks relating to the prudential supervision of credit institutions” Issue: multi-purpose information SSM tasks ESCB tasks SSM Regulation 1024/2013 Capital Requirements Directive and Regulation (CRD-IV) Additional information/new data needs legal act(s) under SSM regulation CR2533/98 EBA’s Implementing Technical Standards (ITS) Corep Finrep .... ECB Regulations ECB Guidelines
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EU National Statistical
Governance of European statistics (1) Responsibility General economic statistics non-economic statistics Monetary and Financial statistics Quarterly financial accounts Financial stability statistics Memorandum of Understanding Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics European System of Central Banks (ESCB)/Eurosystem European Statistiscal System (ESS) Shared responsibilities Balance of Payments European Sector Accounts Statistical Infrastructure EU National Central Banks ECB EU National Statistical Institutes Statistics Committee European Statistical Systems Committee + new: European Statistical Forum Responsibility
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European Statistical Forum – strategic cooperation
Governance of European statistics (2) The ESCB and the European Statistical System (Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes) develop, produce and disseminate European statistics under separate legal frameworks, reflecting their respective governance structures Memorandum of Understanding between ESS and the ESCB (signed on April 2013) enhanced cooperation: European Statistical Forum – strategic cooperation work jointly in Committee for Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments statistics (CMFB) - operational cooperation
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Statistics Committee (STC) Statistics Committee in SSM Composition
Decision-making bodies for ECB statistics ECB Governing Council ECB Executive Board ECB Supervisory Board Statistics Committee (STC) Statistics Committee in SSM Composition (STC in SSM) WG on Monetary and Financial Statistics WG on Euro Area Accounts WG on External Statistics WG on General Economic Statistics WG on Government Finance Statistics WG on Statistical Information Management WG on Securities Statistics WG on Supervisory Statistics
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ECB legal instruments concerning statistics
Regulation – directly imposes obligations on reporting agents in euro area Guideline – imposes obligations on Eurosystem (including ECB) Recommendation – informs statistical authorities other than central banks in euro area of ECB requirements; not legally binding Decision – makes it public Governing Council decisions which impose obligations on addressees; can also be without addressees Notice – to inform/explain Opinion – expression of ECB view, usually in response to a consultation under Treaty/Statute Also Memorandum of Understanding
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Statistical work at the ECB is the result of team effort
NCBs/NCAs: Collection of data from reporting agents, other national statistical authorities, other national sources All contact with reporting agents/representative bodies Perform tasks in accordance with EU/ECB legal acts Responsibility for meeting the ECB’s/SSM requirement Compilation and publication of national aggregates/contributions to aggregates ECB: Collection of data from other Community/international sources (e.g. Eurostat, BIS) Quality assurance processes Compilation and publication of euro area aggregates Shared: Conceptual/development work, development of legal/technical infrastructure (ECB in lead) Participation in Community/international statistical committees
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Compiling euro area aggregates
Complying with international statistical standards SNA 2008, ESA 2010, BPM6 Usual approach – build from national contributions. Importance of harmonization of the national contributions. Some euro area aggregates are a simple sum of (harmonized) national data, but some are not. National money stock commonly includes deposits held by residents with banks located in the country concerned. Euro area money stock includes deposits held by residents of all euro area countries with banks (MFIs) located anywhere in the euro area. It exceeds the sum of national money stocks by the amount of cross-border depositing within the euro area. National balance of payments statistics measure all cross-border transactions of residents of the country concerned. The b.o.p. of the euro area excludes cross- border transactions within the euro area. Gross flows in the euro area b.o.p. fall short of the sum of national b.o.p. flows by the amount of these cross-border flows within the area.
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National and euro area monetary aggregates
In German M3 In neither German nor Austrian M3 In Austrian M3 Deposits held by Deposits held by Deposits held by Deposits held by Germans with MFIs Germans with MFIs Austrians with MFIs Austrians with MFIs in Germany in Austria in Germany in Austria All the above are components of euro area monetary aggregates I I
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Reference reporting population for ECB statistics
Central banks, other MFIs Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries Post office giro institutions Entities holding cross-border positions or carrying out cross-border transactions Issuers of securities or e-money The reference reporting population is confined to entities resident in the euro area (but the ECB may collect from them consolidated data which includes information relating to their branches outside the euro area). This is all set out in Community legislation Regulation No 2533/98 - notable amendment here in No 951/2009 is extension of reference reporting population to include insurance corporations and pension funds.
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Brief overview of own produced statistics
MFI (banking) balance sheets; monetary aggregates and counterparts MFI interest rates Securities issues and holdings Other (non-monetary) financial intermediaries Financial markets Payment systems Balance of payments International investment position Other external statistics Government finance Euro area integrated institutional sector accounts Supervisory statistics [MFI = monetary financial institution]
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Supervisory data The Supervisory statistical requirements are articulated in the SSM Supervisory Reporting Manual and form the main source and basis of requirements to DG/S. Module 1: Core supervisory data: ITS data 1 covered 2 Module 2: MFI Statistics, Securities Holdings Statistics available, further requirements 3 Module 3: Granular Analytical Credit Database Under development 4 Module 4: Ad-hoc data (top-down stress testing, surveys) covered , DG/S to provide support 5 Module 5: Other non-ITS supervisory data (interest rate risk reporting) covered, but possible further requirements 6 Module 6: Public disclosure (Pillar 3, financial markets data) not harmonised but covered
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DG-S - data flows for statistical and supervisory tasks
SSM groups & solo banks Reception NCBs / NCAs Statistics (aggregated and granular) Supervisory data (Pilot, FINREP/COREP, stress test) Processing ECB DG-Statistics Monetary Policy, Payments, etc Supervision Dissemination Executive Board – Monetary Analysis Supervisory Board – Supervisory analysis Analysis ESRB, EBA, FSB Economics, Research, Operations, Payments, General Public DG I to DGIV, Joint Supervisory Teams (on and off site inspections)
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The Sequential Approach – Process for reporting ITS data
DG-S - data flows for supervisory tasks The Sequential Approach – Process for reporting ITS data The ITS data are reported to the EBA following a sequential approach. NCAs participating in the SSM (SSM-NCAs) send the data to the ECB, which as a competent authority, immediately submits the reports to the EBA NCA NCA NCA NCA NCA The sequential approach reduces reporting burdens and redundant data flows
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Thank you for your attention!!!
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Annex
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Key characteristics of the euro area
Reference year: 2013 € -18 1 EU-28 335 9.6 28.6 12.1 27.0 17.7 20.3 508 13.5 26.6 17.1 18.2 17.3 19.0 316 13.0 41.2 16.5 13.5 18.9 18.0 128 3.6 28.1 4.5 17.0 21.7 24.5** 1,361 12.5 9.2 15.9 25.5*** 46.5*** 51.0*** Total population (millions) GDP (PPP*, € trillions) GDP per capita (PPP*, € thousands) Share of world GDP (PPP*, %) Exports (goods and services, % of GDP) Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) Gross saving (% of GDP) Sources: for euro area and EU: ECB, Eurostat, national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations; for the United States, Japan and China: national sources, IMF, World Bank and ECB calculations. 1) Lithuania became the 19th euro area member state on * Purchasing Power Standards (PPSs) in euro, calculated on the basis of PPP rates relative to the euro area (Euro 18 = 1). ** refers to 2011 *** refers to 2012
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Monetary and financial statistics
Monetary, financial institutions and financial markets statistics Monetary aggregates and counterparts, minimum reserves Interest rates, securities issues Investment funds Financial Vehicle corporations Financial soundness indicators, financial integration indicators Consolidated Banking Data Financial market statistics - yield curve, PDFs -
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1st publication 20 September 2012
ECB statistical support to the ESRB The ECB has to provide statistical support to the European Systemic Risk Board (Council Regulation 1096/2010) 1st publication 20 September 2012 ESRB Risk Dashboard: And also in SDW: e.g. the ESRB Risk Dashboard RDB as a risk assessment tool (input to further systemic risk analysis) RDB as communication tool 50 indicators regarding the 6 identified risk typologies Interlinkages and composite measures of systemic risk Risk Categories Macro risk Credit risk Funding and Liquidity Market risk Profitability and Solvency 24 24
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Monthly balance of payments Quarterly breakdown by main partners
External statistics Euro area balance of payments and international investment position - including international reserves Monthly balance of payments Quarterly breakdown by main partners International investment position (balance sheet) and link to balance of payments Includes geographic breakdown of the euro area current and capital account, international investment position and trade in goods Nominal and real effective exchange rates of the euro
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Fiscal discipline is essential for the stability of the euro
Government Finance statistics Protocol on the EDP: 3% and 60% of GDP as reference values for government deficit and debt reserves Complete set of government accounts (revenue, expenditure, debt and deficit-debt adjustment) providing an integrated overview of the government balance and debt in annual frequency Fiscal discipline is essential for the stability of the euro keeping price stability: direct (e.g. VAT) and indirect effects (wages) containing inflation expectations: rising government debt may lead to pressure on the ECB to tolerate higher inflation to erode the real value of debt keeping financial markets stable: interest rate on government debt in one country is affected by the evolution of other countries deficits and debts Quarterly breakdown by main partners
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Euro area accounts Complete description of euro area economic and financial developments: whole economy and by institutional sector (financial and non-financial corporations, private households and government, rest of the world) Integrates monetary, financial and economic statistics Consistent statistical basis for quarterly economic and monetary analysis, with integrated non-financial accounts and financial accounts Enables analysis of interrelations between key macro-economic policy indicators (e.g. household saving rate, indebtedness and changes in wealth; entrepreneurial income of non-financial corporations; government debt)
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General economic statistics
Other European statistics used by the ECB (Eurostat primary responsibility): Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) GDP Business indicators: industrial production, retail trade, etc. Employment, unemployment, labour costs, etc.
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Separation principle – ECB Decision of 17 Sep 2014
Organisational separation: the ECB shall maintain autonomous decision-making procedures for its supervisory and monetary policy functions ECB to carry out its supervisory tasks without prejudice to and separately from its tasks relating to monetary policy and any other tasks Professional secrecy: persons carrying out supervisory duties shall be required, even after their duties have ceased, not to disclose information covered by professional secrecy Exchange of confidential information between policy functions: upon request on a need to know basis, subject to Executive Board approval, except where Union law provides otherwise Analysis of the confidential information: to be conducted autonomously by the receiving policy function in accordance with its objective. Any subsequent decision to be taken solely on this basis
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