1. Labour mobility in the EU
László Andor
Mercator Senior Fellow at Hertie School of Governance (Berlin)
Visiting Professor at ULB (Brussels)
Poznan, 19 May 2015

2. Free Movement of Persons in the EU EU CITIZENS have the right to move and reside freely, including non-actives, pensioners and students (Art 21 TFEU)
EMPLOYED
plus family members
Free movement of workers
SELF-EMPLOYED
Freedom of establishment
POSTED WORKERS
Freedom to provide services

3. Freedom of movement for workers
Can look for a job in another member country    
Can work there without a work permit
Can reside there for that purpose
Can stay there after employment has finished
Have a right to equal treatment with nationals in access to employment, working conditions and all other social and tax benefits
Can have their family members join them with derived rights

4. Share of EU mobile workers in % of total labour force
Source: Eurostat EU–LFS 2012

5. Limited flows to most Member States
Recent (< 10 years) mobile EU workers (economically active) as a percentage of the host country's labour force
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.

6. Increase in numbers of mobile EU workers after 2004 and 2007 enlargements
EU workers residing in another member country in millions and as a percentage of total labour force ( )
Source: Eurostat and European Commission estimates. NB: Croatian nationals included from 2009 on.

7. Large outflow in % of labour force in origin countries
Recent (<10 years) mobile (economically active) EU citizens by nationality, in % of labour force of origin country, 2013
Source: Eurostat EU-LFS and European Commission calculations

8. Mobile EU citizens tend to be young
Percentage of young people (15-34) among recent (<10 years) mobile EU citizens and in population of countries of origin, by group of EU countries, 2013
Source: Eurostat EU-LFS and European Commission calculations

9. Mobile EU citizens more likely to be economically active – and employed - than nationals of host countries
Source: Eurostat, Labour Force Survey (LFS)

10. Personal remittances received (% of GDP) (average for 2004-12)
Remittances partly offset negative impact of loss of workers in Central and Eastern Member States
Personal remittances received (% of GDP) (average for )
Source: World Bank

11. Impact of the crisis on EU mobility
Mobility declined sharply between 2008 and 2010 (-41%), but recovered (+22%) somewhat in 2011 and 2012.
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.

12. Impact of crisis on intra-EU mobility
Mobility flows declined sharply from to (-41%) before recovering to some extent (+22%) in
Recent (<2 years) mobile EU citizens and non-EU economically active persons ('000)
Source: Eurostat, LFS and EC calculations.

13. Impact of crisis on distribution of mobile workers by region of origin
Recent (< 2 years) mobile EU workers (econ. active) by region of origin ('000)
Source: Eurostat (LFS) and EC calculations.

14. Impact of crisis on origin countries
Recent (< 2 years) intra-EU movers (econ. active) by origin country, in , in comparison to pre-crisis period ( )
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.

15. Impact of crisis on distribution of mobile workers by host country
Recent (< 2 yrs) mobile EU citizens (econ. active) by host country (as % of total)
Source: Eurostat (LFS) and EC calculations.

16. Sharp increase in the share of recent mobile EU workers with tertiary education – according to labour demand
Distribution of recent (< 2 years) intra-EU movers (econ. Active) by highest education level, in % of total
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations.

17. Growing percentage of tertiary graduates among mobile EU workers
Source : Eurostat, Education statistics

18. Mobile EU workers' high over-qualification rate
Around 35% of recent mobile EU tertiary-educated workers employed in low and medium-skilled occupations – around 50% in 2012 among those from Central and Eastern Europe.
Over-qualification rate among recently established foreigners by group of countries (as a percentage of all highly educated persons in employment)
Source: Eurostat, LFS and European Commission calculations

19. East to West mobility likely to decrease
GDP per capita in Central and Eastern EU countries (in PPS, EU15=100),
Source: European Commission (AMECO database)

20. Lessons learned from the impact of crisis on mobility
People go where the work is
Mobility flows in the EU have reacted more strongly to economic situation than in the US (contrary to the past)
Some people go back when the economic situation in their country improves
People willing to move but more scope for intra-EU mobility to increase

21. Impact of (post-2004) EU mobility:
Positive economic impact (GDP of EU-15 boosted by 1% in the long-run)
Positive impact on economy - filling labour shortages
Moderate impact for specific groups
Very limited impact on wages / unemployment among natives
Higher impact in major destination countries
Possible negative impacts in short-run and on groups more likely to be substitutes (past immigrants, low-skilled natives)

22. Impact of mobility on origin countries
Could be negative on GDP due to large population outflows
Impact on GDP per capita more limited
Many young people leaving their origin countries
The share of tertiary educated has increased in the last decade
Remittances sent to origin countries
No overall brain drain effect
Mobility is not necessarily permanent phenomenon
Many mobile workers come back with additional experience
Possible strong impact for specific sector (eg: situation in the health sector)

23. Impact of mobility on social security in destination country
+ Fiscal impact likely to be positive, as mobile EU citizens tend to be economically active
+ EU mobile citizens less likely to receive social benefits
- Problems at local level may occur due to sudden influx of poor EU mobile citizens in specific areas = impact on local services such as healthcare and education

24. Total inflow of migrants to the UK
"Rest Europe" includes EU accession countries but also some non-EU countries
"Other" includes China, USA among others countries.
Source: UK ONS – Long-term international migration

25. Number of adult EU foreigners registering in the UK – 2012/2013 compared to 2011/2012 (%)
Romania
Bulgaria
Source: DWP 2013 Study
Spain
Portugal
Italy

26. 71 77 Employment rate in the UK (age 15-64) (%) Nationals
Source: EU Labour force survey
Nationals
EU Citizens (excluding nationals)

27. 7.8 7.2 Unemployment rate in the UK (age 15-64) (%) Nationals
Source: EU Labour force survey
Nationals
EU Citizens (excluding nationals)

28. EU mobile citizens are low users of welfare benefits
EU mobile citizens claim 2.1% of welfare benefits despite representing 4.6% of the working population 93
4.8
2.1
Source: DWP 2013 Study
Claimants of benefits (%)

29. Overall positive fiscal impact in UK of mobility from EU countries
Positive net contribution of about 25 billion GBP between 2001 and 2011
Source: Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration of the University College London
Other recent findings:
LSE brief (2013): Immigrants, on average, are less likely to be in social housing than people born in the UK, even when the immigrant is from a developing country.

30. EU policy for supporting labour mobility
The EU’s three-pronged approach to promoting labour mobility:
Remove remaining obstacles to labour mobility
Actively support labour mobility and cross-country matching of jobseekers and vacancies
Tackle economic and social challenges linked to labour mobility

31. 1. Removing remaining obstacles to the free movement of labour
‘Portability’ of supplementary pensions
Directive on improving the acquisition and preservation of supplementary pension rights for mobile workers
Recognition of professional qualifications

32. 2. Actively supporting labour mobility and cross-country matching of jobseekers and vacancies
Enforcement Directive on the exercise of the right to free movement of workers
advice to mobile workers
easier redress when rights breached
Upgrading EURES into a pan-European recruitment and placement tool

33. 3. Addressing related economic and social challenges
European Social Fund (> €80bn in )
Proposal for a European Platform to prevent and deter undeclared work
Enforcement Directive on the posting of workers

34. Thank you for your attention!