1. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 6 Population Growth and Economic Development: Causes, Consequences, and Controversies

2. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-2 Estimated World Population Growth

3. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-3 World Population Growth, 1750-2050

4. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-4 World Population Growth Rates and Doubling Times

5. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-5 World Population Distribution by Region, 2003 and 2050

6. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-6 World Population Distribution

7. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-7 Fertility Rate for Selected Countries 1970 and 2006

8. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-8 Population Pyramids LDCs population pyramid is truly pyramid-shaped with 40% younger than 19 years and less than 5% over 65. Of the youth, 2 billion are 19 and younger and 400 million between 15-19 MDCs population structure is more like a cylinder with many middle-aged and elderly individuals

9. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-9 Population Pyramids: Ethiopia vs. U.S., 2005

10. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-10 Hidden Momentum of Population Growth Family planning takes many years to achieve two-child family and eventually replacement fertility because today’s children are future parents In Nigeria, If family planning began in 1990 Two-child family may achieve in 2035 (45 years) Replacement fertility would eventually reach in 2150 (115 years)

11. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-11 Hidden Momentum of Population Growth

12. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-12 The Demographic Transition Stage I: High birthrates and death rates Stage II: Continued high birthrates; declining death rates because of improved medicine Stage III: Falling birthrates and death rates, eventually stabilizing due to improved medicine and decline in the fertility rate

13. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-13 Demographic Transition in Western Europe

14. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-14 Demographic Transition in LDCs

15. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-15 The Malthusian Trap Population grows at a geometric ratio (e.g., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.) Food supply increases at an arithmetic ratio (e.g., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, etc.) Hence, hunger, starvation, and death shall follow Remedy is to keep population growth in check

16. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-16 The Malthusian Trap A B C Population growth rate Income growth rate Trap Growth rate (%) Income per capita 0 1 2 3 5 4 Y2Y2 Y3Y3 Y4Y4 Y1Y1 Growth Y0Y0

17. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-17 Criticism of The Malthusian Trap Rapid income growth due to technological advancement Greater food production due to land- intensive technology and application of modern farm inputs Economic growth faster than population growth, resulting in the rise of per capita income over time

18. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-18 Criticism of The Malthusian Trap Population growth rate Income growth rate Growth rate (%) Income per capita 0 1 2 3 5 4

19. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-19 Cross-National Evidence Many LDCs have been able to lower population growth rate while increasing income per capita (e.g., China, Sri Lanka, Chile, Singapore) Still, there are countries with low or even negative rate of economic growth, but high rate of population growth (e.g., Kenya. Congo, Philippines, Colombia, Venezuela)

20. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-20 Microeconomic Theory of Fertility Where C d is the demand for surviving children Y is the level of household income P c is the “net” price of children P x is price of all other goods t x is the tastes for goods relative to children Demand for Children Equation

21. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-21 Microeconomic Theory of Fertility Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect: Demand for Children Equation

22. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-22 Microeconomic Theory of Fertility In LDCs, the demand for children is high because the cost of raising children is low and they add to the family’s workforce to generate income – In LDCs, children are “investment goods” – In MDCs, children are “consumer goods”

23. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-23 Policies of Fertility Reduction Improve female education, and economic and social role and status Provide of female non-agricultural wage employment Rise in family income

24. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-24 Policies of Fertility Reduction Reduction in infant mortality, hence demand for replacement children Provide old-age income security Expand schooling opportunities Establish family planning programs

25. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-25 Consequences of High Fertility Population growth isn’t a real problem. The problems are Poverty and lack of development World resource depletion and environmental destruction Uneven distribution of population Subordination of women

26. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-26 Consequences of High Fertility Slow or negative growth of per capita income Increased poverty and inequality Inadequate educational and health-care services Food shortage and hunger Environmental decay and loss of natural resources International migration

27. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-27 Some Policy Approaches What can LDCs do to reduce fertility? Improve economic and social equality Invest in female education and job creation Educate people about negative consequences of high fertility rate and provide family planning programs Provide incentives to reduce rural-urban migration and brain drain

28. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-28 Countries Adopting Family-Planning Programs, 1960-1990

29. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 6-29 Some Policy Approaches How can MDCs help LDCs reduce fertility? Improve international economic relations Research into technology of fertility control Financial assistance for family planning programs