1. LAND USE CHANGE INDUCED BY LARGE SCALE LAND ACQUISITIONS Paolo D’Odorico 1,2, Maria Cristina Rulli 3 Stefano Casirati 3, Kyle Davis 1, Jampel Dell’Angelo 2 1 Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia 2 National Social-Environmental Synthesis Center, University of Maryland 3 Department of Civil & Environmental Eng., Politecnico di Milano, Italy

2. Global Agricultural Security depends on Trade In many countries domestic production is not sufficient (D’Odorico, et al, Earth’s Future, 2014)Net Importers Net Exporters 1986 2010 Increasing Reliance on Trade Globally, 24% of the food we eat 40% of biodiesel production Globalization of Food, Land, and Water

3. Increase in food prices, social unrest, riots… Export bans in Russia, Indonesia, Argentina... Food insecurity Vulnerability of Trade-Dependent Countries A look at the 2008 & 2011 food crises Importation of food Picture from: Afronline.org Large Land Acquisitions Need for more food  Close Yield Gaps Need for secure access to food.

4. Controversial issues: Development opportunities or loss of rural livelihoods? Investments to increase yields  Agricultural Intensification … but the land is often not used for production  no real development Dispossession of local communities  Loss of Rural Livelihoods Counterargument: the land was “unused”  Agricultural Extensification  Environmental Impacts Water is a major driver Questions: -Appropriation of land & land-based resources? Water as a driver? -How much more food can be produced at gap closure? -Prior land use? Evidence of Deforestation?

5. Global Water Appropriation Using land acquisition data from Land Matrix (2013) And the CROPWAT model for crop water use (FAO) [Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013.]

6. Green, Blue, and Grey Water Considering only acquisitions for which a contract area has been reported Blue Water: Scenario of “maximum irrigation” [Rulli, Saviori, and D’Odorico, PNAS (2013); Rulli and D’Odorico, GRL, 2013] Rainwater Irrigation water Water to dilute pollution

7. Comparison with other major water flows Annual flow (m 3 y -1 ) YearSource Water Appropriation from Land Rush 0.4 × 10 12 2012 Rulli and D’Odorico,2013. Groundwater Depletion 0.14 × 10 12 0.28 × 10 12 2001 2008 Konikow, 2011 Wada et al., 2010 Grounwater Withdrawals 0.6-0.7 × 10 12 Margat and Custodio, 2004 Water Used for Biofuels ≈ 0.25 × 10 12 2010 Our study Virtual Water Trade (food only)2.81 × 10 12 2010 Carr et al., 2013 Freshwater Used for Food6.75 × 10 12 11.8 × 10 12 1996-05 2010 Mekonnen&Hoekstra 2011 Carr et al., 2013

8. Food potentially produced in acquired land (Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)

9. Food potentially “appropriated” (Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)

10. How many people could be fed? (Rulli and D’Odorico, ERL, 2014)

11. (Rulli and D’Odorico, Environm. Res. Lett., 2014) Food “Appropriation” in Africa Are crops exported or made available to the local populations?

12. Total for Africa (Millions): 52-89: with Existing Technology 123-212: at Gap Closure (140% increase) 223 Million Malnourished People in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO, 2013) (Rulli and D’Odorico, Environm. Res. Lett., 2014) Only ≈25% of the land is in production

13. Two different types of impacts -If previously cultivated/used  livelihood loss -If previously uncultivated  environmental impacts (D’Odorico and Rulli, Nat. Geo., 2014) Was the land previously cultivated? Do land investors cause deforestation?

14. Data 2000-2013 forest change maps by Hansen et al. (Science, 2013) - 30-m resolution Landsat 7 data Land oil palm concessions (Indonesian Government). Logging concessions data for Liberia (WRI, 2014) The Land Matrix database.

15. Deforestation in Oil Palm Concessions in Indonesia About 25% of deforestation is in Oil Palm Concessions Deforestation in about 25% of Oil Palm Concessions (Rulli et al., in prep. - See also Carlson et al., PNAS 2012)

16. The Case of Logging in Liberia Concessions for logging Forest Loss Forest Gain Closed evergreen lowland forest Mosaic Forest/ Crop- lands Degraded Evergreen lowland forest Deciduous shrubland & Submontane forests (Rulli et al., in preparation) (ha)

17. Conclusions If used for local needs the acquired lands would produce enough to abate malnourishment -… but investors acquire the land as a business opportunity/option for the future, without starting production. -… commodification of the land - Evidence of deforestation induced by Large Scale Land Acquisitions