1. System for Mapping and Predicting Species of Concern NASA Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting 23 April 2015 John Olson

2. Species Occurrence ~ f(Environment) Cryptic, little public notice, microscopic Data collection is time/labor intensive Species Distribution Models are only as good as the data Challenging in streams

3. Species Occurrence ~ f(Environment) Especially important for T&E and early detection of invasives Species Distribution Models are only as good as the data Challenging in streams

4. Species Occurrence ~ f(Environment) Species Distribution Models are only as good as the data Challenging in streams Environmental DNA (eDNA)

5. DNA extraction Amplification & Detection Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR) Provides estimate of amount of eDNA in sample < 30 min, <$30/sample (known primer/probes) Applied to ID’ing crowd sourced samples Next Generation Sequencing Many Unknown Species Few Known Species Environmental DNA (eDNA)

6. Objective: Predict occurrences of freshwater Species of Concern Reach level predictions over entire regions to support management SDM using eDNA & remote sensing data

7. How do we measure when they are so hard to find? Amplification & Detection Quantitative PCR (qPCR) Primers Probes Denaturation – Annealing Cycle Fluorophores

8. Map Current Distribution Predicted occurrences Existing Biological Data Species Distribution Models Satellite Genetic Identification Crowd Sourced Samples eDNA System for Mapping and Predicting Species of Concern (SMAP-SOC)

9. Feasibility Study - Demonstration Species Didymosphenia geminata (“Didymo” or Rock Snot) A native invasive Emerging management concern Blooms associated with low P Difficult to detect if not in bloom DNA probes and primers already available Previously modeled

10. Feasibility Study – eDNA Sampled until filter clogged, standardized counts by volume 80% detection probability with 1 sample, 96% with 2 samples Tested fast & slow habitat samples – slow more sensitive 50% detection rate with microscope

11. Feasibility Study - Data Data 976 Traditional (but only 637 with dates) 8% presences 70 eDNA sites 5% Validation Existing Biological Data

12. Feasibility Study - Models Species Distribution Models Model fit assessed using external validation data Response Data Sensitivity (% True +) Specificity (% True -) AUCCCR# of predictors MaxEnt Models Static0.860.950.940.9315 Temporal1.00 14 eDNA0.930.620.770.708 Response Data Sensitivity (% True +) Specificity (% True -) AUCCCR# of predictors MaxEnt Models Static0.860.950.940.9315 Temporal1.00 14 eDNA0.930.620.770.708 eDNA data can produce effective models

13. Hydraulic Conductivity Water-body Area Soil Bulk Density % Deciduous 3 Month Land Temp Imp.10.28.45.13.83.6 Predicted Value Feasibility Study - Models Elevation Std Dev MODIS ET Rock % S MODIS Potential ET Imp.16.413.81311.5 Predicted Value Importance = % decrease in AUC when the predictor is permuted Temporal Model Didymo occurrence more likely in wet years

14. Usefulness of Output Easy to use Easy to interpret Watershed Accumulation Tool Feasibility Study - Application

15. Humpback Whitefish Broad Whitefish Arctic Grayling Least Cisco Burbot N. Pike Next Steps National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska 23 million acres 1000s of miles of streams Being rapidly developed

16. Chuck Hawkins Karen Mock Torrey Rodgers NASA Applied Science Program Maki Endowment Thanks to Hannah Strobel Marlee Labroo

17. Questions

18. Feasibility Study Satellite Map Factor# predictorsSource Topography 7National Elevation Dataset Long-term Climate 11PRISM Model Temperature 3MODIS ET/PET 4MODIS Hydrology 4USGS & NHD Geology 12Olson & Hawkins 2012 Soils 8STATSGO Atmospheric Dep 6National Atm Deposition Prgm Vegetation 9MODIS & Landsat 64 Candidate environmental predictors

19. Freshwater fish, invertebrates, & algae are often difficult to detect: Small Cryptic Rare Current sampling techniques: Low detection rates (< 50%) Time and resource intensive

20. Environmental DNA assessed using qPCR: Detection rates 80-96% Faster & cheaper sampling (< 30 min, <$30/sample) More and better occurrence data Robust relationships to NASA data Resulting in reliable predictions MaxEnt diatom model using both eDNA and traditional data 93-100% correct classification rates